Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

@FrancineTrout

Damn, you got me... I realised after your Alec Salmond post.

It made me laugh... Nothing wrong with a bit of gentle trolling. Some people have a tendency to be far too earnest and straight-laced in here.

Ghost theres not a lot we can do.

We have 1 vote and I think the vast majority of us here will not vote Tory.

If they do win a majority theres not a lot we can do but batten down the hatches and ensure our families are OK.

If it's a disaster as we expect either with a deal or No deal, then JC is partly to blame.

He has been ineffective in opposition. He has not in any way held the government to account since the vote in 2016.

Jo Swinson's heads so far up her own arse that she can't see the wood from the trees. She is not as culpable as JC for No Deal but she has still failed.

I al actually voting Labour but it is a vote against the Tories and not a vote for Labour or Jeremy Corbyn.

@Mistigri the unacceptable thing that has happened on this thread is the casual use of a Goebbels image to make a point. That is utterly indefensible.

Yes, it's a bit rubbish to have a go at you just because, as I understand it, you live in the EU but not the UK. You obviously have a valid voice even one I don't always agree with.

If the tide has changed to remain I expect the lib dems to do very well. Let's remember though this is a general election not another eu referendum regardless of what people say.

The majority of two of the countries that make up the sovereign state of the UK voted Leave.

The majority of my country voted Remain - by a much higher proportion than England voted Leave.

I will accept as accurate the statement that the majority of the UK which unfortunately Scotland is still part of, partly because it was promised it would be listened to and tested as an equal member voted Leave. In an advisory referendum which the SNP (and MPs in general) were assured didn't need to have any safeguards put into (such as the vote/consent of the constituent parts) because it was only advisory

Old argument but worth restating.

Can some journo get to the bottom of the Cummings thing.

He didn't resign did he - he had a fixed term contract that he always only agreed to until 31 October because he needed an op or something.

Presumably Johnson offered to renew it but he refused.

Also the Political Australian strategy team with two kiwi supporters who are running the Tory campaign with digital strategies used before . What do we know of them- what type of visa are they on? I had a Aussie boyf years ago who was over the twenty something age limit and couldn't get a work visa here.Don't you have to be in a special category - since when were political strategy people in short supply?

It hasn't changed. And Labour's Brexit policy is unclear. So no amount of "don't you care about the NHS" is cutting it.

Maybe the remain campaign should look at why they didnt win hearts and minds over the last 3 years. Not even with winners like Blair and Campbell on their side.

Bellini, I agree, but I am not able to see the post to make my own judgement.

My only comment is that if something is fundamentally offensive (in the sense that it is offensive regardless of the context - which it sounds like it is the case here) then it is also offensive when it is repeated by others.

Jo Swinson's heads so far up her own arse that she can't see the wood from the trees.

It’s not just her, it’s the echo-chamber that is the LDs..... I believe 95% voted for their “revoke with no 2nd referendum” policy at their conference. There were some voices of moderation from the more longstanding members such as Simon Hughes, but they were very much in the minority.

It was astonishingly politically naive and blinkered. The Tory equivalent would have been to agree to bring back hanging and the birch... Yes, it would have played brilliantly with their core support, but their votes are in the bag.... they don’t need to be pandered to!

Is JRM the dog that didn't bark ?

If we are to get obsessed by polls, I wonder if there's some private Tory polling that suggests everytime Moggs pops up, support goes down ?

There might be an angle in that ?

And Labour's Brexit policy is unclear

It really isn’t. Labour offers a choice between a soft Brexit and Remain, based on another referendum. I honestly have no idea why people struggle to understand it.

Oak they lost me with that policy. Although most likely wouldn't have voted for them anyway due to the 2 horse constituency I am in.

But I don't agree with revoking. Not a straight revoke anyway.

I actually do think Labour has the best Brexit policy- although I suspect I am in the minority!!

Their other policies though- I really hope they don't get the chance to carry out all their manifesto promises.

I honestly have no idea why people struggle to understand it.

They dont

Some people don't want to understand it. They'd prefer 5 more years of austerity just so they could have their savile row mannequin sitting in opposition helpless

I think Labour's policy is sensible, but that Corbyn's neutrality isn't - why would the EU waste time negotiating a deal the U.K. government won't commit to supporting? That's just insane.

The problem is not the policy now but the time it took to get their. The idea that Labour is on the fence about Brexit has been reinforced so many times that it will take longer than an election campaign for them to undo this.

But the Labour Party is claiming it can get a soft Brexit deal done in short order. Which a Labour PM won't say whether he will support or not.
I presume that Labour realises you have to have another side to negotiate with. Who have their own priorities and timetables. And you actually have to negotiate. And then a referendum on top of that.
Why is that appealing to Brexit supporters?

Which a Labour PM won't say whether he will support or not.

He's staying neutral

1. The EU could have the political declaration rewritten in days with a change in U.K. govt redlines.
2. Corbyn's personal neutrality is a stupid stance. Why would the EU do (1) if the U.K. government wasn't prepared to then defend it at a referendum?

*Misti you are right it is probably " We won get over it"
*
But the win has been going on for three years. When do the flurries stop. Ok there have been some minor victories mostly securing parliamentary debate and delay around examining protection for NI. But mostly it's been victory in the ref, victory in soon to be two new Tory govs, victory in expelling moderates, victory in ERG gaining control, victory in BJ as PM, victory in moving the workers and consumers rights of the legally binding bit. Victory in getting the potential for less regulated food and pharma deals. Victory of shrinking projected expenditure on the NHS by having much lower staff bill. Victory in getting a dominant group of right wing cabinet members.

I'm not being negative. I know I'm right and still want a society where it isn't only the fittest who flourish.
I'm just interested how it would feel to be a winner and i who psychologically would gloat if the roles were ever reversed.

Its sensible in that there wont be ERG types/disaster capitalists negotiating.

He wants to be the fucking PM. Doing stuff in the best interests of the country. How is sitting on the fence smiling beautifically while we all keep ripping each other to pieces in the national interest?

Because the country is entrenched. What glorious unifying figure have you identified bellin?

Given that the EU doesn’t want us to leave and Corbyn has intimidated he’s been talking to them for some time, I suspect his deal’s pretty much ready to go. I have zero problem with his neutrality, he’s allowing his MPs to campaign as they wish. It’s already predictable who will be campaigning in the two camps.

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