Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

I would like to be as optimistic as squid as what else is there?

Yet I can't help but feel depressed. It is galling to think of how BJ, DC, JRM, NF etc. (not to mention Putin, Trump, etc) will be so pleased with themselves at how easily they manipulated the voters (with a bit of help from billionaire MSM owning friends).

The most I'm hoping for now is that the next 3-4 years of Brexit chaos and crap will prevent a UK-US FTA from being signed and that by the next election, Labour and LD will have found better leaders. Plus, I'm going to stop reading the news after Dec 13th... that will help.

Really don't see them being rattled. I think you are kidding yourself.

@DrBlackbird , that's kind of my view. Let this Brexit shit try and play out and take all the current party leaders with it.

I think it's more winding up/ hubris than anything else.

With a few little digs thrown in at mumsnetters who they think (wrongly, in my case) are guilty of having an opinion on British politics while being foreigners.

@HateIsNotGood I'd also like to point out that some people are dual national and that, once you've lived for a long time in a country, you sense of belonging change (as in you belong to two places rather than one), even if you've never bothered to get said other citizenship.

fwiw I am an EU national living in the UK for more than 20 years. I've spent more time here than in my 'home country'.
I would do the same than Misti, moving from 'ours' to 'yours', sometimes in the same sentence. I would hope it doesnt mean I am not allowed to express an opinion beause I somehow dont belong to the right group (or I dont make myself clear if I ma british or not).
These are comments like yours that make me sometimes doubt if I can express an opnion on british politics for example. Or say that 'this MY NHS, MY institution etc...' :(

The thing I don't get is why there's an influx whenever the news for them is good? They seemed rattled by victory. That's a bit weird.

I think it goes back to the 'not being listened to' theory, that whenever the media seems to support their views/theories they feel like someone is taking them serious but in some cases taking them serious is the last thing that should be done, lets not include the majority of ploppers who we have no idea if they are even franchised in this country, most posters here whether I agree with them or not post often enough so you get some sense of their life so you know that they are a real person and not some shill/bot here to disseminate the party line as a lot of the ploppers are

Misti are you trying to call me racist for asking a simple question about your ability to vote in a UK election? All it required was a simple answer , including saying 'none of your business'.

I am not a racist at all and I ask that you apologize to me for that accusation.

If you are capable of answering a simple question with a simple answer, where are you putting your X?

Let this Brexit shit try and play out and take all the current party leaders with it. Absolutely. We need a clear out.

Hate FWIW I am a British citizen with two British parents and two British children working for a British employer.

Does that make me British enough?

Anyway I shall carry on having my annoying British opinions even though I am not quite British enough in some eyes.

Why did the BBC’s bbclaura klink her million followers to Cummings’ smear-fest of a blog without reporting the basic news — that he’d resigned from No 10. Once again, like Cambridge Analytica, Vote Leave and Bannon scandals, the national broadcaster is being gamed.

You do realise he had to have resigned prior to posting the blog, don't you?

The real scandal would have been if he had not resigned his post beforehand as he'd have been in breach of purdah & the SpAd code of conduct.

Pretty basic, not unusual, uncontroversial stuff really...

I'm pretty sure he had that blog Pre-prepared well in advance & always intended to release it at this point just ahead of the big poll

It's exactly what I'd have done 🤷🏻‍♀️

You do realise he had to have resigned prior to posting the blog, don't you?

I rather suspect someone realised post facto that Cummings did not understand purdah rules, or thought that they did not apply to him.

Do we have evidence of a prior resignation?

The thing I don't get is why there's an influx whenever the news for them is good? They seemed rattled by victory. That's a bit weird.

Commenting on a poster inviting (nay, rallying) posters to 'be more Goebbels is precisely fuck all to do with being 'rattled' 🙄

There are none so blind etc...

So, destroy the country so that a handful of people get the party leaders they want, sacrificing the most vulnerable in society in the process. 10 years down line the government has to build from the ground up with the phrase "theres no magic money tree" ringing in their ears

that whenever the media seems to support their views/theories they feel like someone is taking them seriously

The thing is though, since 2016 they've been on the winning side - part of the victorious majority. A steady tide of the ERG expelling moderates and shifting to the right. There must be underlying doubts or something to get all active when there's yet more good news in the polls.

In the unlikely event of having a reverse flow of remain / support for moderate views in the polls I think I'd have a quiet gin with the family and maybe a slight cry of relief. I certainly wouldn't be showing hubris towards the retreating tide of the Faragists,ERG,new Tory team.

I can't quite think it through but there are psychological parallels -I would need to read up on it. Its all that stuff about external validation and relying on the affirmations of others, eg those in authority to feel validated and a sense of worth.

A very late PMK

I don’t pay attention to polls

I find it hard to keep up with the threads on this

But seriously, when someone says “be more Goebbels” there’s got to be people coming by to see it with their own eyes? And not because it’s offensive, but scary, so you want to see who said it and in what context.

❤️ @Squid

@GhostofFrankGrimes , the majority of this country voted Leave. Parliament triggered Article 50. What follows is on people who want that.
I'm not one of them. I will not take the blame for other people's shit, even shit they voted for themselves.
The tide hasn't turned for Remain. Turning for Labour is not turning the tide for Remain.

For clarity I'm not just talking about last night- it's whenever there's been good news in the polls or when Johnson got his deal/ election etc.

What possible context is that phrase acceptable?

Lonelyplanet is it not just "we won get over it"? I don't think it's any more complex than that. The polls are giving leave voters confidence that they've won, hence the celebratory flag waving and the foreigner (not-a-foreigner-actually) baiting.

“ What possible context is that phrase acceptable”

If you mean “be more Goebbels”, I’d go with “none whatsoever”. And the comment stayed up for a long time, so of course people are going to come by to see it.

and it’s fucking scary, so of course, in spite of name changes, you still want to see who said and what the response was by other posters and MNHQ.

Once again I’m going to repeat my mantra that polls are meaningless, particularly two weeks out from the election. A lot is going to happen before 12 December that could impact significantly on the result. It may be that I’m being Pollyannaesque but my gut’s not telling me all’s lost yet.