Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

Serious questions need to be asked about the BBC. I hope they will be held to account for their impartiality in this election. It's not just this one incidence.

@bellinisurge

I have enjoyed our chat but I now must get ready for work ... see ya later

Right everyone.

I've come on this morning and half of you are really down and depressed. Give yourselves an hour of moping, then pick yourselves up and let's keep going.

This isn't the time for wallowing, this is the time for action. Whatever happens on polling day at least you know you've tried, if you try. You'll be able to face your kids and your aging parents and say that you didn't give up, you did your best.

If your constituency looks hopeless. find the nearest marginal and ask how you can help. If you can't get there, they may be running telephone canvassing. Or you can get out on social media and support them that way.

Just don't give up.

Boris Johnson branded children of single mothers 'ignorant and illegitimate'

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-branded-children-single-20977406

I'm taking heart that in the poll my constituency is well within the error bars of flipping to Labour. That, combined with a tactical voting site changing its advice from Lib Dem to Labour for this constituency yesterday might just get enough voters out to push it over the line.

Excellent advice, OhYouBadBadKitten.

Joannaobrien if you are going out canvassing then you really need to read up more on the progressive drip drip drip of NHS privatisation.

There are some articles below explaining how the NHS is being squeezed out of existence.I'd have more respect for a canvasser that's came up with some honest arguments. Don't pretend the NHS will survive - explain the reasons why your leaders feel it needs to go. Things like:

Healthcare is a matter that should be left to the individual with more freedom of choice. Or

Healthcare becomes more efficient if providers compete with one another. Or

A state-upheld monopoly in health care gives the state too much control over what and who are treated. Or

The 10% expenditure of GDP on the NHS isn't enough and needs are increasing to unsustainable levels . OR

Why should higher rate taxpayers carry such a burden of state provision when most other countries don't provide free healthcare like we have done for decades OR

The NHS is already a failing project with people in corridors etc - a privatised system would be more efficient and streamlined.

The NHS minimises alternative holistic remedies, a less state controlled system could be more individual and responsive to holistic and homeopathic treatments.

I don't agree with these points but as this is the poll and election winner's POV I would like Honest up front justification of the underlying policy.
Openness is better than the shabby duplicity of pretending Johnson and co love the NHS.

Why not come out and say the truth that the new Tories don’t believe state healthcare is desirable or sustainable. Then at least then voters could consider the merits up front. Even Farage did try and sell a positive case for NHS replacement.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/explained-nhs-privatisation-trade-talksukk_5dbad1f4e4b0bb1ea375b9e6

[[https://www.bmj.com/content/367/bmj.l6376
www.bmj.com/content/367/bmj.l6376]]

https://www.rcn.org.uk/-/media/royal-college-of-nursing/documents/publications/2019/october/007-898.pdf

https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/brexit-will-be-very-bad-for-the-nhs-survey-of-uk-doctors-reveals/

I am not going to comment on the AS I have just done on Joanna but suffice to say it reveals that her union membership may indeed be a memory from some time ago and that it was in a huge public sector area : hardly details that would be outing.

20-30 years ago, methinks.

'Closed shop' is a trigger/dog-whistle for those who are now in their 70s.

It's a paragraph in a history book for modern, zero-hours workers.

Hither thee back to Facebook, Joanna. It's slim pickings for you with that line here.

The Tories said the BBC was biased against them when Labour was in power. That's how it generally plays out.
They probably think they are doing a good job if they are pissing everyone off. Doesn't mean they are. Just means they think they are.

@OhYouBadBadKitten , all very encouraging but try to do what?

Cendrillon

I think its a very sad day for my Country if either a 'bunch of far left OR far right loons' are allowed to get in. Extremists of either colour are bad.

Time for the voice of reason AKA the Mash
www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/johnson-is-to-corbyn-as-the-joker-is-to-batman-labour-admits-20191127191174

The Tories said the BBC was biased against them when Labour was in power. That's how it generally plays out.

That's true, and it's always been a reasonable argument that if both sides complain then the BBC is going something right.

But the BBC lied to the opposition party and then broadcast the programme when it knew it was not in a position to provide appropriate balance.

For each person it will be different Bellini. To keep fighting for what is important to them. As you can't reconcile your own priorities, I guess it's advice that doesn't apply to you.

I asked before but it got swallowed up by the thread : who was the chap on Andrew Neil yesterday? He was a Conservative and I had no clue who he was.

I can’t understand for the life of me why anyone is taking this much notice of polls and I really don’t see why anything so undemocratic is allowed in the run up to the election. They’re too easily gamed.

The only vote that counts is in the General Election itself.

I suppose we should consider new BJ/Brexit aficionados visitors' contributions as a compliment: we tend to get an influx whenever they're rattled

Fair enough @OhYouBadBadKitten .
I know what my priorities are, it's just that no party is offering anything remotely like it. Or if it does, it has big nasties in its armoury that I am not prepared to live with.
Hard core right/Hard core left/Non-man fixated/Fucking no deal Brexit loons. That's not a selection I want to choose from.

I think bellini's ballot spoiling is fair play, must be honest. I think, overall, turnout will be affected in lots of areas by the despairing 'none of the aboves'

I think Guy Verhofstadt or 'Bollocks to Brexit' would be the final kiss of death in parts of the North in this campaign.