Westministenders: Promises, promises

[BigChocFrenzy]

We should see the party manifestos soon
in 2017, that changed the election

So far, Tory and Labour have been competing for who can offer the most spending on the NHS

Labour have been giving tantalising glimpses of free dental care and free broadband

The Tories have been hinting at tax cuts, as well as public spending

The polls suggest the public like all of the above,
but also that Brexit is the most important issue

25 days to go, still all to play for

Westministenders' Abbreviations:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation?msgid=84503730

I’m in a Lab/Con marginal and have had a number of YouGov voting intention polls.

The survey states my postcode and gives me the list that will be on the ballot slip - so candidates names plus their party (if applicable) and asks who I’ll vote for, plus how likely I am to vote on a scale of 1-10.

I've just done a 125 point YouGov survery about the election. Specific to my constituency.

If other pollsters are following the same methodology, a lot of "predictions" are really just an aggregate of what people think will happen ...

I did a YouGov last week that had the voting intention question tacked on at the end. I put "Don't Know" and "100% going to vote." Hope that fucks with their poll data.

PMK

It is weird. There is a big dissonance between the polls and people's reactions to Johnson on-screen or at hustings.

Assuming it's correct, the only thing I can think of is the "shy Tory" syndrome. People get defensive about voting blue in public, but will do so in the privacy of the ballot box and anonymously admitting to it over the phone?

Assuming it's correct, the only thing I can think of is the "shy Tory" syndrome.

Also, given the current "status quo" is Tory, there may be less of a sense of needing to campaign for it ? The same way the Remain campaign started ? Much easier - and noisier - to campaign against something in that context ?

BCF that LD poll info... Raab, Rees-Mogg and Redwood’s seats are on there.
I don’t want to get my hopes up, but that would be gratifying.

www.markpack.org.uk/160336/2019-general-election-constituency-opinion-polls/amp/

"Shy Tory" is a polite name for greedy stinking hypocrites who know they are doing the wrong thing acting out of selfishness to the detriment of the nation.

There are also "Pepsi Challenge" Tories who like most if not all of Labour's policies when put to them, but recoil and row back when told they are Labour's policies.

I just did the survey too. Most of the tory voters I know (older generation generally) would not fill in online surveys, they have not heard of YouGov. I think this type of poll will underestimate tory votes.

Is this thread some sort of extreme left wing rambling? Mockers - I will vote for whom ever I like. Hopefully Labour will get trashed in the coming elections. I honestly dont see how people can be so naive to vote for Labour when they are looking to run some daft social experiment on Maxist ideologies. The more wealthy wont be here, they will have left the country. Do you really think Amazon and the like will be getting out their chequebooks anytime soon? Of course if you want to fund stupid ideas like free broadband, free dental care (kids already get it!) lets go the whole hog and have free heating, free food, free transport.

We have almost full employment now and very low interest rates for borrowing. Labour will bankrupt this country with their looney left ideas. Until they move more to the centre they have NO change of ever getting into government.

Most of the tory voters I know (older generation generally) would not fill in online surveys, they have not heard of YouGov

I agree.

I can’t imagine my parents telling anyone on the street or on the other end of a phone line, who they were voting for either.

Tatiana the treatment of Ebenezer Azamati was shocking and unacceptable. I am also finding it hard to understand why the Oxford Union decided to progress him through a disciplinary process - had they seen the footage? were they given incorrect information from their staff?

What has also chilled me is that the staff seem unaware that this man is blind. From what I have read they have incorrectly interpreted his body language as being aggressive towards them.

For whatever reason the Oxford Union have now found out the error of their ways. I hope they are redirecting their investigations as quickly as possible towards understanding what did happen and why, and then take action and make genuine efforts at reconciliation.

I wonder if the 'staff' are actually zero hours security staff - devaluing these roles (like so many - I am effectively a zero hours contract worker myself) and their less measurable aspects may result in the Oxford Union paying a much higher price in the long term.

Elements until there was actually an election scheduled I was doing the same. However, considering some tactical voting sites are tailoring their advice based on constituency level polling I think it is important to now give clear info about my voting intentions. My choice is clear cut as I want to get a more pro-remain MP and have a non-Conservative MP - the tactical voting sites are unanimous in recommending Labour in this constituency and my Labour candidate is strongly remain.

"Close Friend" Jennifer on BBC2 now. Ever so Me-Me-Me!

I agree - but her character reflected on BJ, I thought. To have an affair with her for 3/4 years?

She was hurt and I get that him speaking to her in mandarin to get rid of her on the phone - is odious. It's psychotic behaviour. Psychotic behaviour of a man who people are just about to vote back in as PM (with all the evidence).

But Jennifer herself seemed naive, superficial, immature, irresponsible - just odd and I thought that it was very telling that this was the sort of person BJ had chosen to 'spend time' with for 3 years.

Then he just spat her out. Discarded. Erased from memory. That is very telling too and, as I've read elsewhere, will be how he'll treat his voters ( if he gets in again) no doubt.

sunglasses123

Maybe you should take them off ?

We have almost full employment now and very low interest rates for borrowing.

And foodbanks, and more homeless than ever before.

Just read an interesting comment elsewhere:

Another manifestation of this phenomenon is when asking the political/economic question...[] "will we be better off?"[]....it is now simply quantified in terms of GDP rather than infant mortality rates, life expectancy, standards of literacy, levels of poverty, standard of healthcare etc...

sunglasses123

You’re absolutely right - it’s comical how out of touch with the country political opinion is on here. If it weren’t, Corbyn would already be PM with 70% of the vote and Remain would have won with 99%!

Meanwhile, back in the real world, Survation - the pollster Labour fans always remind us was closest to the actual result in 2017 - has some bad news for them today!

Britain Elects
@britainelects
·
4h
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42%
LAB: 28%
LDEM: 13%
BREX: 5%
GRN: 3%

Tory Lead of 14 points

via
@Survation
14 - 16 Nov

Verdict: People aren’t as gullible as Corbyn thinks - they know free stuff isn’t actually free!

Cendrillon

If approx 40% of the population is admitting to liking the Tories, that means that 60% don't. Even if you add Brexit it still comes to under 50% using the percentages you just posted.

So I'm not sure where your smug assumption that the anti-Tory talk on this thread is out of touch with the general population comes from?

I wonder how many people smugly thinking they have medical insurance will start experiencing:

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/insurers-overrule-consultants-on-best-treatment-for-patients-5g0tdmdvt

Patients are being left in pain and having operations delayed or denied because insurers are overruling consultants’ decisions on treatment.

Policyholders with breast cancer, heart conditions, arthritis and knee problems are among those who have been unfairly denied procedures, The Times has found.

Analysis of Financial Ombudsman Service reports shows that complaints about private medical insurers have risen sharply.

(contd)

?

Lesson from the US ...

ffauxlivia

If approx 40% of the population is admitting to liking the Tories, that means that 60% don't.

So I'm not sure where your smug assumption that the anti-Tory talk on this thread is out of touch with the general population comes from?

I presume you don’t know that no post-war government has ever won 50% of the vote, and that Thatcher and Blair dominated the electoral scene with a little over 40% of the vote? By British standards, 42% vs. 28% is a crushing advantage!

And in any case, 90% of the posts on this forum are anti-Tory, so miles out of step with any polling you care to name.

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I spotted the bullshit lie here. Who else can ? Maybe it should be a prize competition ...

Honestly - I didnt mean to be so rude but some of the PP are raving loonies who think that Labour will rob the rich to pay the poor. The rich wont be here! It will be YOU paying for these initatives. Who wants free broadband? The Job Seekers? We have almost full employment? Having said that it would be sensible to give them some broadband if possible. I was working on a project to give prisoners coming out of prison free IPAD's with BB attached so it cannot be impossible to do.

I get the impression that McDonnell and co have really lost the plot. They are giving out so many freebies. My family will get some of these btw and I do think student debt and forcing nurses to fund their own degree needs immediate attention but just making everything free... and as for comparing the UK to South Korea! Where did that come from.

I have a view of the NHS having had a parent in hospital but that's for another time. I was also for over 30 years a major supplier (or my company was) to the government sector and have sat in many meetings when they claim to want 'Value for Money' and do the complete opposite.

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