Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

I’d have a good look at the foreign aid budget for a start. Charity starts at home and all that.

So the 5 / 6 / 7 wealthiest country in the world shouldn’t help anyone else?

That’s proper Leaver speak there.

Could we take this 'we don't need broadband' a bit further. We don't now need television, but it's available throughout the country (maybe some remote Scottish places excepted. ) Should we pull the plug on a few transmitters? Just have them serving cities, everyone can go to the city to watch television if they need to.

We’ve been banging on about fucking broadband for eight pages now. Surely there’s nothing left to say.

Alsohuman

The polls are meaningless at this stage. Even if they weren’t, fewer people want a Tory government than do, that’s nothing to do with the number of seats.

That’s a particularly ignorant argument, since no government in post-war history has ever won more than 50% of the vote. To follow your logic, that would mean “fewer people wanted the Attlee Government than didn’t want it”.

Still want to press on with that logic?

*the 5 / 6 / 7 wealthiest country in the world shouldn’t help anyone else?

That’s proper Leaver speak there.*

Oh the irony! No, we shouldn’t be helping other countries when people in our own can’t afford to eat. Surely that’s bloody obvious.

We could also talk about the money wasted on Brexit to date. But those are now sunk costs, the money has gone.

And that that is another pointless discussion

People on these threads really need to look at reality right now

And those of you who have been around since the start know what a change that is for me

We have no choice now but to Brexit - the only discussion is how bad it is

We’ve been banging on about fucking broadband for eight pages now. Surely there’s nothing left to say.

Well there is because it’s a shit policy which mainly gives those who can already afford out a bit more

@runningintothesunset sorry to deviate from the broadband discussions (fwiw I think it's bonkers to offer to all businesses - the needs and costs for big companies are astronomical compared to domestic users)

However I was struck by what you said about your young staff all being higher rate taxpayers by their mid 20s - what line of work is it and how do I retrain?

What does "looking at reality" mean ?

We always seem to end up with you wanting us to do some magic shit that will change things
and you also keep claiming we're under some illusion
We aren't
We mostly expect that the country and most of the most vulnerable are going to be fucked by the Tories

We're not (as far as I know !) MPs
So slagging off the Tories isn't preventing us from doing something to stop it
We can't stop it
All any of us can do is canvass, go on demonstrations, attack the Tory Brexiters online
The alternatives are to give up, or become sociopaths and join them in their drive-by on the nation.

Bear. We do have a choice. If the Conservatives told the electorate the truth about leaving, that our manufacturing will go, that Financial Services will be devastated and that agriculture ,technology tourism sectors and the NHS cant be sustained without EU workers, that we will be tied up in negotiating for years, and that we are very unlikely to make favourable trade deals, that we will probably fall into recession and are unlikely to recover for years, oh yes and that they have been lying about all of this since before the referendum, then maybe people would change their minds. I think loads of leave voters already have, but this election doesn’t ask that question.

We are all tackling this Tory Brexshit in our own way

So if you have some way to make things better, go you !
tell us specifially what you are doing and some might even join in

No, we shouldn’t be helping other countries when people in our own can’t afford to eat. Surely that’s bloody obvious

We could redistribute the wealth in this country. OK we are doing that now, it's migrating upwards.

I don't see any harm in pointing out that costs incurred with the aborted attempts to Brexit to date are sunk costs, because it reminds people that we could have afforded to finance the Health service better, we could afford foreign aid. The Government has chosen not to do so and we have allowed them to get away with it.

BCF, you don’t even live in this county so I fail to see why you have such a vested interest

You also think everyone should hang on every word you say, as demonstrated at the end of the last thread

Right now I’m fed up with it all

But you seem to think that slagging the Tories off, whilst being apathetic to Labour’s shite-ness is going to prevent the Tories getting a majority

On 13th December all will be revealed

tell us specifially what you are doing and some might even join in

Stop making apologies for the fucking shambles of an opposition we currently have

A shite government Is only enabled by an even more shite opposition

The last thread our consensus was that BJ was standing in Uxbridge
I only mentioned my post with the election leaflet because it was one I specifically remembered

So the gloating announcement of Uxbridge sounded particularly silly

For once I have to agree with Bear!

I personally, although I have never voted Tory in a GE, find it quite distressing to see a number of conscientious MPs standing down who were still young enough to have had a long and successful career in the party. People like Justine Greening and Rory Stewart. I hope in time, when Boris Johnson and the Rees-Moggs of the party are history, that the can come back and help rebuild it as a more moderate, slightly right of centre party.

So the gloating announcement of Uxbridge sounded particularly silly

Not half as silly as your arrogant reply - like if people just listened to you they would know the truth

You are just pushing more people to vote Tory with your arrogance

Well done!

Well, we disagree about how to proceed
You do your thing; most of the rest of do ours

After the GE, people may be more inclined to attack Corbyn, but at the moment that just helps the Tories

The Tories are the culprits who started this shit for internal party reasons and they are the ones continuing with the diisaster
So I don't intend to lay off them

Well I’m not apathetic to Labours shiteness and neither is BCF, or indeed most of the people joining in, but still can’t see how a Conservative Party prepared to sell our country down the river for their Russian overlords and their hedge fund backers is better.

For once I have to agree with Bear

😂

My work here is done!

😂

And you don’t even live here smacks a little bit of a Little England mindset, and that’s me being polite.

Your continual attacks on Corbyn have kept me defending him and even started me sympathising with him

I never thought that would happen

Now I think the UK will need a radical left govt, to repair the damage after another 5 years of hard right govt

Several Uk expats here
Several EU expats too

Several Brits struggling to cope with the Tory attacks on disabled benefits
We've an NHS doctor nearly on their knees struggling to keep people alive despite Tory cuts to the NHS
A poster having to feed someone else's child

I expect we'll keep attacking the Tories

Now I think the UK will need a radical left govt, to repair the damage after another 5 years of hard right govt

Maybe

But what you are inciting from your safe position in Germany is a radical right wing Government

Well done you