Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

Has Boris announced what he’s going to do for our county if he gets in? My daughter asked this after watching Boris’s tea making video. She said ‘Boris didn’t say what he’s going to do to make our country better’

This is of particular interest to my daughter. She has Cerebral Palsy and has been shat on with no health service/physio/OT/speech and language. No support at main stream school. As a result they’ve tried to off roll her but special needs schools won’t take her as she’s too able for them. There’s no school that will meet her needs.

Secondary school’s had 3 heads in 2 years. Primary school is 230,000 pounds in debt. Lost 10 teachers/TAs in the last 3 months.

We’re not poor but we’re just about surviving. Things will get much worse if the Tories get in again and I worry so much about my daughter’s future. She’s right. The Tories have no plans to make our country get better. They’ve made it sick and they don’t care. Please one of you Tory supporters on here. You spend so much time here trying to make us all understand the Tories. But you don’t live in the same way as everyday people. Please tell me, so I can tell my daughter - what will the Tories do to help us if/when they get in?

So by that reckoning Bear nothing's going to be done for the next 10 years?

You do understand that it will take that long to leave the EU, don't you?

Would he like free broadband? He would certainly like reliable broadband.

Does his need for ‘reliable’ broadband eclipse the needs of people using food banks for example?

You do understand that it will take that long to leave the EU, don't you?

Really?

I thought it would be done and dusted the day we leave? 🤔

But it would be nice to hear them talk about something else as well.

There are a lot of things that would be nice

They’re not going to happen.

Does his need for ‘reliable’ broadband eclipse the needs of people using food banks for example

It shouldn’t be an either or.

He's going to look even more like a potato when we are still in on 1 Feb.

People weren’t that bothered the last 3 times it happened because it was spun accordingly

It shouldn’t be an either or

Maybe not, but the reality it is.

You do make me flinch a bit Bear.

Yes I do see that. That's kind of my whole point.

It really doesn’t have to be.

It really doesn’t have to be.

Well it does if you live in the real world where stuff actually has to be paid for, hence prioritised

Does his need for ‘reliable’ broadband eclipse the needs of people using food banks for example?

It could be argued that reliable broadband and decent public transport would enable people to find better paid work and therefore not need foodbanks.

But this is a false dichotomy - why not attempt to roll out reliable broadband, probably for a modest fee rather than free, and attempt to do away with foodbanks? The Tories have sold the lie it's either/or because austerity is needed, but it's not - it is because those now in charge of the party are greedy and selfish.

What have the Tories said about not needing foodbanks, now that they have found a magic money tree, or at least for those marginal constituencies that are the only ones they care about?

Don't jump in at once, I think the answer is nothing.

People weren’t that bothered the last 3 times it happened because it was spun accordingly

The country was supposed to explode, I recall.

The changing electoral geography of England and Wales: Varieties of “left-behindedness”

Hardcore stats for political nerds
@RedToothBrush if you are lurking

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629818304712

But this is a false dichotomy - why not attempt to roll out reliable broadband, probably for a modest fee rather than free, and attempt to do away with foodbanks?

Absolutely no issue with that

It’s realistic and achievable

Unlike the headline grabbing bullshit the Labour Party are so fond of

It’s not food bank users versus free broadband. A government spending billions is free to look at all areas of spending. There’s no reason why money can’t be spent on allaying poverty and broadband, all it requires is reduced spending elsewhere.

all it requires is reduced spending elsewhere.

So where?

I don't disagree with a modest charge - but only if UC/living wage/benefits calculations include that amount as part of "essential costs".

...which ironically means that you're moving towards the Universal Income concept that's some are promoting (think the English Greens announced that today )

That really would blow some people's minds

FGS - can’t you see that those who vote for them don’t give a shit about anything other than leaving the EU right now.

That can't be true of all Tory voters - there are such things as Tory remainers - and I'm sure some of them would like to hear a few policies to rival all Labour's offerings

I’d have a good look at the foreign aid budget for a start. Charity starts at home and all that.

So where?

Scrap Trident. Scrap tax cuts for the wealthy. The money could be found if the political will was there.

That really would blow some people's minds

Not mine

God forbid there comes a day when I do need free broadband but I genuinely don't need it now and it should only be available if I really need it

Right now I do not need or deserve it

And a policy which is based on providing those who don’t need it, with stuff they don’t need is no better than the austerity IMO?

We could also talk about the money wasted on Brexit to date. But those are now sunk costs, the money has gone.

Scrap Trident, a ridiculous extravagance
Raise tax on those earning above 80k

Ok, to be fair he's suggested the 2nd of those
He seems too timid to tackle the first