Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

We've nearly all agreed how shocking it is that so many moderate Tory MPs have had to quit, because of this toxic govt

An unprecedented list of lost talent
which means that the Tory govt will be even more lacking in experience and knowledge

The Tory party has been taken over by the hard right
It has happened over many years, but except for red most of us only noticed it in the last 3 years or so.
So of course we're still angry and shocked
... like those Tory MPs who've quit

Nope
Learning from Germany: if you don't stand up to fascists, they win

Ooh get that . if the Tories win, that’s your fault BCF.
How could you? Fucking batshit crazy

You are just pushing more people to vote Tory with your arrogance

So in order to help Labour win (which you don't want because you detest them) everyone should stop criticising the Tories. Genius!

1984-speak

To attack a hard right govt is to incite a hard right govt

Or we could go from experience:
Trying to accomodate fascist politicians and be conciliatory just makes them stronger

Let us remind ourselves
The level of Russian influence on the Tory party is unprecedented in any UK party

Didn't we all assume that if there ever were a Russian-subverted party it would be Labour ?
I certainly did. My bad

If I've missed millions in Russian donations to Labour, please link

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5cae8aca-0338-11ea-95be-9565f1401aa3

Nine Russian business people who gave money to the Conservative Party are named in a secret intelligence report on the threats posed to UK democracy which was suppressed ..... by Downing Street.

Oligarchs and other wealthy Tory donors were included in the report on illicit Russian activities in Britain by the cross-party intelligence and security select committee (ISC), whose publication was blocked by No 10.

Some Russian donors are personally close to the prime minister.
Alexander Temerko, who has worked for the Kremlin’s defence ministry and has spoken warmly about his “friend” Boris Johnson, has
gifted more than £1.2m to the Conservatives over the past seven years.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/10/uk/russia-uk-election-javid-gbr-intl/index.html

Russia's influence reaches deep into the British establishment and successive UK governments have turned a blind eye to it,
lawmakers were warned, according to multiple sources familiar with testimony given to a parliamentary inquiry.

Members of the cross-party Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC) were told that
Moscow built up a network of friendly British diplomats, lawyers, parliamentarians and other influencers from across the political spectrum.

One witness described the development as
"potentially the most significant threat to the UK's institutions and its ways of life,"

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/08/uk/uk-russia-inquiry-intelligence-security-committee-gbr-intl/index.html

Witnesses whose testimony CNN is familiar with told the committee that
Russian agents were targeting research roles in the House of Commons,
acquiring British citizenship to funnel cash to political parties
and employing public relations firms to cleanse reputations.

In written testimony submitted to the committee and seen by CNN, Browder alleges that
Putin had used the proceeds of illegal asset seizures and money from corrupt sources to develop a "network" of well-connected, influential British figures,
enabling the Kremlin "to infiltrate UK society and to conceal the underlying Russian controllers and their agendas."

Unless tackled, such a network
"will have serious detrimental effects on the UK democratic process, rule of law and integrity of the financial systems,"

I’m going to bed. I don’t like name calling so I let myself down with my last post. But my goodness that is not a logical position bearbehind.

I'm must be living in a parallel universe!

The idea nobody has ever criticised the opposition at all. With the exception of about 4 posters. Is hilarious.

Even Just isn't totally uncritical.

I'm not a JC fan either but for the first time ever I'm considering voting Labour this time.

steve richards@steverichards

The 2 most successful Lib Dem leaders in recent times, Ashdown and Kennedy, didn’t pretend they cd be PM during elections as @joswinson does..

nor I suspect would they have claimed equidistance between Con and Lab when one plans a hard Brexit and the other a referendum.

Another lifelong centrist here - paid up LD for years, canvasser, teller - currently intending to vote Labour, partly tactically, partly because I feel let down by current LD leadership and have always been ambivalent about some party policy (legalising cannabis, which I believe needs very careful thought and if not done properly might simultaneously make more people use it, not necessarily a good thing, while not stopping the illegal trade, and policy in sex work), and partly because in principle I don’t disagree with much of what Labour is proposing, which as many have pointed out, is pretty standard eurosocialist stuff.

Oh and because in my opinion the Conservative party under its current leadership has lost every shred of humanity, compassion and economic common sense it ever had, is totally in thrall to disaster capitalism and unicorns and shouldn’t be anywhere near government for many many years.

I don't know why people are attacking BCF.

She's generally correct - and very fact-based.

I also don't know why anyone is being attacking on this thread at all, frankly.

It's silly (as well as unpleasant).

There is no point in being unpleasant. None. Nothing to be gained.

Randomly unleashing hostility on other posters here is just self-indulgent anger. Giving in to a desire to be aggressive and hurt, based in feelings of impotence, I guess.

We all feel like that: it's the situation we're in.

We need to show grace under pressure and practise a bit of resilience.

Unleashing anger on communicative partners won't make anything any better - but will transform a place for talking and exchanging information into a bear pit - and that's a loss.

It's cold, dark and wet out there. Let's leave that outside.

Just caught up with a thread read. Let's keep avoiding personal attacks please, this thread has been pretty good for that.

For me the comment below ( from Peregrina) was a pithy reminder of the cold, hard truth that so many in the country just won't see.

The problem is that most voters can only think in terms of their own personal budgets. Eg If you are saving buy a car then you can't go on holiday etc.

This makes it very easy for Tories to attack any other party's proposal that involves spending on anything at all. But national budgets don't work like domestic ones.

The money's has been there for bribing the DUP, the money has been there for the huge cost of Brexit to date, the ferry less companies, the whole Brexit department, the absurd advertising campaigns, the money offered to marginal constituencies.

. The Tories have sold the lie it's either/or because austerity is needed, but it's not - it is because those now in charge of the party are greedy and selfish.

It’s precisely because BCF is fact based and generally correct that she’s being attacked. Because in those circumstances, ad hominem is the only way to go.

Hi lonely! Heading your way today - grandchildcare duty!
Trains a bit dodgy due to flooding but luckily there’s an alternative line I can use.

So how will this be reported ?

www.ft.com/content/8e82e01c-dbb6-11e5-a72f-1e7744c66818

UK makes last minute bid for EU flood funds

Here are some basic links reminding everyone that the " how are you going to pay for that" line of thinking that most journalists encourage when interviewing politicians is bad economics.

( I did one fancy links but being lazy as I'm without my glasses on my phone!)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2018/04/30/governments-are-nothing-like-households/

https://neweconomics.org/2018/10/a-government-is-not-a-household

new~statesman.

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https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/adnan-aldaini/running-a-government-budgbb7585914.html?guccounter=1&gucereferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guceereferrersig=AQAAAFpP1Ytx-jmZ7NUUeGpB6gcbkR6QZPOPAtIbhfY2SsYAiv5dr55eqsTw6yXUFL4KKx24IogyhVdYUQVU6ngdzqk0rmhtVEXV8cgP5dpyOVGqNFm7HnaH5URI1s5x3VYN1Hnd-5ForaAnFlDNzEBJ4ignBPQAsH9WMDDxoMQpw-H

PMK.

Hello Born!

Sorry I missed your posts before . Always awake early aren't we?? Lovely to spend time with the GC though.

With the EU flood fund. All seems a bit contrary Mary. We churlishly won't send a commissioner - but do send disruptive MEPs. Then on the other hand the House of Lords EU Home Affairs Sub-Committee criticised the government for not using millions of the EU fund allocated to tackle food deprivation, homelessness and child poverty in certain areas? Yet we will have flood money. Consistent only in our inconsistency.

(My posts on economics before were because I think that underlying all the differences of opinion on broadband / WiFi are differing understandings about how national economics work.)