Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

I don't dislike you Bear..... you may have voted Tory in the past - but you have made it clear you don't know who to vote for now....... at least you are thinking about it.

I saw someone say you need internet to apply for UC - but all I have been told on this thread is that system doesn't work and needs to be changed- access to the internet is not going to change the institutionalised victimisation if people who need this help. It will just becomes another stick to beat those people with..... well we gave them free internet..... it doesn't fix the fundamental problems. I am incensed that my family and people in my situation will get state aid - when they don't bloody need it.

One of the few things my DM and I used to fight about - she was in NZ - very wealthy by NZ standards - but got state pension. When kids are going to school without breakfast.
The wealthy DO NOT NEED ANYTHING MORE........

The polls are the evidence for that

The percentages don’t equate to seats because of FPTP

When we have a Tory majority because the opposition did fuck all to stop it, then maybe you’ll realise where the missed opportunity was.

JUST - you are beyond help, you blindly follow - I have voted across the political spectrum in this country. I suspect you cannot say the same.
Corbyn is your messiah - fine - but some of us prefer to apply some critical thought.

then availability of decent bandwidth IS required as a Public Service.

Which part of ‘I agree some people need this for free but the majority ’don’t’ is not sinking in?

Corbyn is your messiah - fine - but some of us prefer to apply some critical thought.

Lol! You could be my new BFF mrslaughan 😂

I wasn't referring to you as pro Tory btw Bear, you have largely been absent from the thread earlier in the day for starters.

The polls are meaningless at this stage. Even if they weren’t, fewer people want a Tory government than do, that’s nothing to do with the number of seats.

To lighten the mood .....

https://www.facebook.com/100000149800829/posts/2965844673430497?d=n&sfns=mo

Song from a guy called Mitch Benn about why he's moving to Scotland (depending on the result on 12 December )

I wasn't referring to you as pro Tory btw Bear, you have largely been absent from the thread earlier in the day for starters.

Apologies for having a job 😂

My dilemma with the alternative to a universal availability of services is that alternative is usually decided by means testing. Means testing hasn't been great recently., ...

I do believe access to reasonable internet (dont understand about broadband vs wifi) is NOW one of those things which must be available to everyone, particularly to those who have to have it to access UC, JSA etc - that should be a given, given that if you don't have it you are handicapped. Not having access shouldnt be used as a stick to beat you with...

I also dont understand the obsession with the polls, and the need to say "we're in the lead" - four weeks to go, that's a bloody long time, anything and everything could happen - and I'm sure it will.

Means testing costs more than it saves too.

Even if they weren’t, fewer people want a Tory government than do, that’s nothing to do with the number of seats.

I think you’ll find that’s the major problem with FPTP - it has everything to do with the number of seats,

My seat will go to the Tories regardless of what I’d chose.

I don't think you can have lived anywhere really rural Bear. I have in the past and thought: Bus? What's that?

DB lives in a village in Wales - he almost broke his neck to get his bus pass when he turned 60 and then could hardly use it, because there weren't any.

City: - somewhere 30 miles away, with non-existent buses to get to it. Yes, this is the reality for quite a lot of people.

Means testing costs more than it saves too.

It doesn’t if you link it to benefits

DB sounds like hes up in the north like me, no possible way anyone can keep a job around here using public transport anymore

I think you’ll find that’s the major problem with FPTP - it has everything to do with the number of seats,

Are you always this patronising?

I don't think you can have lived anywhere really rural Bear. I have in the past and thought: Bus? What's that?

When have I mentioned buses other than getting Wi-Fi on them?

Does your 60 odd year old brother need free broadband?

Are you always this patronising?

Only when people appear to miss the bleeding obvious,

Only when people appear to miss the bleeding obvious

Ten out of ten for compounding condescension with rudeness.

also you can be a professionally offended as you like but you haven’t actually explained how percentages do equate to seats.

They don’t in a FPTP system.

Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
A month out from #GE2019:

Con 40%
Lab 28%

A month out from #GE2017:
Con 47%
Lab 29%

Don't rule out big shifts ...

My response about buses was a reply to your "I’m saying the vast majority have ways they can, so making it free for everyone is unnecessary."

No, not everyone can access a city centre. DB has health issues and if he were stopped from driving, which is a possibility, his mobility would be severely compromised. Realistically, he would have to move to a town, preferably near a bus route.

Would he like free broadband? He would certainly like reliable broadband.

Still haven't seen anyone posting about what the Tories are going to be doing after the election assuming they win it.

FGS - can’t you see that those who vote for them don’t give a shit about anything other than leaving the EU right now.