Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

Do you know what poor people do with their money Bear? They spend it, and what does a stimulated economy give us? Growth, what does growth mean? An increased tax income, then repeat the cycle

It’s pretty much the same thing for the purposes of this conversation.

My 16 year old nephew was mugged the other week near his home. He saw the mugger again a couple of days later. He phoned 999. The phone rang out after a high number of calls message. 111 was engaged. He rang 999 again at home and was told he might like to email about the crime. Access to broadband would be pretty essential here.

This was his experience with being mugged. God knows what would have happened if it was a worse crime.

Yes just but what you and others are failing to explain, is why this free broadband should be available to those who can afford it.

Use that money for something worthwhile.

I’ll pay my own broadband

Because it's you Bear and I do (occasionally) agree with you , I will reply: the whole point of the Labour broadband proposal is to ensure that everyone has access to proper bandwidth broadband.

Have you ever tried to use city centre Wi-fi? If you can even get on to it (which if there are lots of people around surprising that, in a city centre , you can't), the upload and download speeds are crap - really basic. Enough for FB, Twitter and WhatsApp and that's about it. Not enough to download emails with any sizeable attachments. Not enough to do homework. Not enough to do research. Not enough to look seriously for jobs - let alone upload CVs.

That's what proper broadband is needed for. Otherwise you are just accelerating the divide between the "Haves" and the "Have Nots".

I've accessed City Centre Wi-fi in various places around the UK because until the last couple of months I was on PAYG so would often make use of (or try to ) the "free" Wi-fi so have real life experience of it. Fortunately, I was never trying to do anything serious using it - and frequently I had to turn my data on anyway (and could afford to do so ).

If we're moving towards a truly digital economy as well as all public/government services to be accessed digitally, that's just not good enough.

This stopped being a conversation some time ago. I’m utterly bored with fucking broadband. Other issues are available.

If everyone has it bear then it becomes a universal benefit and then we all become a little bit more equal, think how often demonished the poor are but because of universal benefits like the police force and fire service you never hear people saying 'oh those poor people saved from a fire thats disgraceful'

made sense in my head

The good thing about our Russian friends is that they really cause me to check my automatic negativity. Unlike many people on here, I know a fair number of people who don’t have any internet access except through the library which has reduced open hours. Despite that, I wasn’t very excited by the Labour broadband proposal. Reading the debate has increased my understanding of the philosophy, the tech and the costing. I think it sounds pretty good. Thanks guys.
Sending gratitude and appreciation to dr Squid. I remember when almost all doctors voted Conservative. Those days are long gone. My daughter is a doctor too and she says those very few colleagues who vote Tory now are seen as turkeys voting for Christmas.
hoo, the live fact checking idea is genius, can we collectively lobby on it. I am sure all the regular posters on here would agree that it’s a good thing. It might give us a rest from BJ telling wild untruths about Labour plans. I think from the representation on here, maybe the Conservatives have got the leader who most closely reflects their core values of self interest, cheap tricks and a complete disregard for the truth. And before that’s sent back to me with triumphalist neighing, I freely admit that I love how courteous and civilised JC is to his opponents, and I am a gardener. I am half Irish and I think he was right to speak to the IRA, and to Stand up for Palestine.and he’s not an antisemite and neither am I. I want people to have secure housing,and health care. I want children to be cared for and educated. Clearly a hopeless idealist and a raving Communist.

Seriously, waiting a few more seconds or having marginally faster broadband is such a first world problem it’s laughable.

And to be discussing it in the same breathe as those who need to use food banks, astounds me.

Well so far 3dog were going to criminalise Landlords, regulate Greggs and possibly people called Gregg, have free buses and a general Stop the North I'm still laughing here about that policy generator

And to be discussing it in the same breathe as those who need to use food banks

To access universal credit you need internet, to use your live journal and if you dont you have a 100% of your income sanction needs internet

Still haven't seen anyone posting about what the Tories are going to be doing after the election assuming they win it.

To access universal credit you need internet, to use your live journal and if you dont you have a 100% of your income sanction needs internet

And for the god only knows what time, I don’t disagree with that.

What I don’t agree with is me having my broadband paid for when I don’t need it and the money could be better spent elsewhere.

The primary use of broadband in this country is for streaming TV and gaming - you guys seriously think that should be provided free?

Fibre to 90% of the population will happen in 5 years anyway - without the government paying.

I thought many on this thread had integrity- worrying about not only free healthcare(which the country can barely afford) and providing a better standard of education to all...... but it's like you have had the golden ticket waved in front of you and you have lost you minds.

I am sure you will all pile in on me - fine - I think I am going to take a hiatus - I can't bare the blindly following of any party/leader no matter who they are.

I know Just. I’m going to criminalise London, can’t wait.

It’s nothing to do with privilege and everything to do with the fact you can’t give something to someone with out taking it from somewhere else.

Indeed so, but the present Government believes in taking from the poor to give to the rich. Some of us don't find that acceptable.

Indeed so, but the present Government believes in taking from the poor to give to the rich. Some of us don't find that acceptable.

Maybe not, but again, what is being offered isn’t a viable alternative.

That is your opinion.

I am sure you will all pile in on me - fine - I think I am going to take a hiatus - I can't bare the blindly following of any party/leader no matter who they are.

I appreciate you dislike me mrslaughan but this is exactly the point I’ve been trying to make

Blindingly following or condemning what is said, simply based on who said it, is a recipe for disaster.

Sorry if this is off topic but here's a little brexshit gem I wanted to share:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/15/australia-demands-compensation-over-brexit-trade-disruption

Now, wasn't Australia one of the countries meant to queue up for a deal with us? Seems they're in fact rather pissed off instead...

Blindingly following or condemning what is said, simply based on who said it, is a recipe for disaster.

Jesus the irony

That is your opinion.

Indeed, but it still doesn’t change the fact more people support the Tories right now, than the alternatives.

just there’s no irony at all.

Corbyn’s problem for me is what he doesn’t say, not what he does.

And BJ is a dangerous twat, but the fact more people are behind him than your illustrious leader, despite that, should give you cause for concern.

Indeed, but it still doesn’t change the fact more people support the Tories right now, than the alternatives

What’s the evidence for that? The only time we’ll know that is 13 December. In actual fact, with 40% in the polls, more people don’t want the Tories than support them.

If people can (and are) sanctioned for not applying for enough jobs , but have no money for broadband at home let alone food , let alone heating , can't get to the library (libraries closing, restricted hours, limited access), then availability of decent bandwidth IS required as a Public Service.