Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

Love the policy generator.
I'm going to regulate Gregg's at a cost of £100billion

I'm not sure if that seems a bit too steep a cost for that. Unless it includes all people called Gregg, then of course the extra funding would be justified

I’m not saying there aren’t those who can’t, I’m saying the vast majority have ways they can, so making it free for everyone is unnecessary.

Did we move onto the NHS, or the police, or fire service?

I’m not pro Tory

I’m simply pointing out that the Tories are ahead in the polls and Labour aren’t providing a positive alternative

The policy generator has me chuckling, free buses and a regulated Greggs what more could you possibly want

I’m going to stop the North, at a cost of £270 billion. To be honest, I’ve stolen this policy off the Tories, but don’t tell anybody

Why the piling into Bear Behind? Some people love to spend other people’s money. The fact is that Labour won’t win the next GE, they don’t even want to with their crackpot scheme of state owned everything. They want to control you because it then gives them more power. The BT and private school nonsense - Labour cannot storm into what are effectively other people’s property and take it over. The BT idea will be caught up for years in legal wrangling and the private school commandeering of their assets - really? How would you feel if they came into your house and decided the ‘state’ needed to take it over?

McDonnell is a Marxist twit. Why the constant reference to South Korea? After all - they have a similar economy (not!!).

If this is the start of the Labour campaign what will be next. Free food, supermarkets being nationalised? Free utilities? All of these are essentials too.

Did we move onto the NHS, or the police, or fire service?

What has that got to do with anything?

Are you saying all services should be entirely free and that it should be widened to include broadband etc

If so, I revert to my former question - who is going to pay for it?

Why the piling into Bear Behind?

Predominantly because it’s bearbehind.

Dont they seem a little rattled must be a good policy then

Stop the North my cheeks hurt

It's cold and wet - and I just can't believe people in England are going to vote Conservstive in such large numbers we will end up with a Johnson government.

It's unreal.

England is addicted to voting Conservative.

Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales need to do some sort of intervention with England.

It's self-harming.

It's self-harming.

Maybe but the reality is still more people disagree than agree, so how can it be avoided and what is the alternative?

If so, I revert to my former question - who is going to pay for it?

For the love of God read some economics, it will pay for itself over a number of years, same with water, power, housing, trains and the royal mail

Short termism is never going to fix the devastating inequality this country is in

Corbyn vs. Johnson = Willy Wonka vs. Wizard of Oz.

@Bearbehind I'm not pro Tory- could've fooled me

Yeah if you want broadband fuck off out of the house to access it!

Not only that, go and buy an overpriced coffee that costs 5% of your benefits to get your “free” WiFi.

How just how?

Anyone can write that shit?

Where does the money actually come from?

As a PP said - what next?

Free utilities?

Free food?

Who the fuck is going to be working to pay for all this?

I'm not pro Tory- could've fooled me

Well you’ve been fooled.

There’s a huge difference between being pro-Tory and understanding the alternative is no more palatable

Bear

Fuck knows.

Threaten the UK with economic damage & diminished international standing? No; that's apparently a plus.

Put a sociopath and proven liar in charge of the Conservatives? No; he's a laugh.

Have social and economic policies that result in declining life expectancy and actual deaths? Nope; who cares?

Compromise national security with loads of dodgy Russian and Far-Right connections! Nope; doesn't matter.

I despair.

I despair

I do too

And relying on magic grandpa and his free utilities isn’t the answer.

his free utilities isn’t the answer.

Uh oh more privilege

It’s nothing to do with privilege and everything to do with the fact you can’t give something to someone with out taking it from somewhere else.

If you take everything from the ‘somewhere else’, there’s nothing left to give

So everyone is fucked.

£31 on average a month will be saved, that bear can mean some poor people, some just about managing people can afford to put the heating on an extra night or have a meal or even buy some needed clothes

Whatever you think of the free broadband policy- Labour have succeeded in introducing a new focus, which is quite something, even if it ends up being a storm in a teacup.

Each time I put the car radio on today- views were being exchanged on this. After three years of a necessary but relentless and destructive focus on Brexit- the proposal has achieved something new even if only briefly for 24 hours.

I don't have much time for the argument of 'Ooooo British broadban- the cost' . It's a splash in the ocean of the Brexit costs already incurred.

Years ago I suggested that if the ref had been a choice between relinquishing EU membership or a £50 M&S voucher many would have chosen the latter. I know it's cynical, immature or whatever, but part of me wishes we could have a 2nd ref with (a) Brexit or (b) Revoke and have free broadband.

I'm voting LibDem tactically to get the ERGer out. But I don't condemn Labour for the free broadband etc suggestion- it's not an evil selfish proposal and is worth focus and debate surely.

No argument with that just

But why the fuck to middle to high income earners need it?

Free WiFi is not broadband.

HTH