Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

pointy even if I am underestimating things, no one has yet explained why those of us who can afford it, should get free broadband?

🚨 POLICY GENERATOR! 🚨

Take the month you were born, the first letter of your surname, and add your birthday to work out Labour's next policy announcement..

#GeneralElection2019

I'm going to Criminalise Landlords at a cost of 80Billion

then most Tory voters would explode at people on benefits getting something else free that they don't

And that’s where your arguments go to rat shit.

Apparently I am ‘most Tory voters’ yet here I am arguing that this policy is ridiculous as it shouldn’t benefit those who don’t need it.

EU rules haven't stopped the Irish govt doing this:

Ireland obviously considers that bringing in high-speed broadband everywhere is vital to its future
btw, €2.6 billion for a country of under 5 million, scales up to rather a lot for a country of 67 million

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP199_6291

he European Commission has approved, under EU State aid rules, €2.6 billion of public support for the Irish National Broadband Plan.

The scheme will bring high-speed broadband services to consumers and businesses in areas with insufficient connectivity in Ireland.

Here's why they want you to argue about broadband - so that other stuff doesn't get a look in. Like this: plans to deport EU citizens:

"EU citizens who miss the deadline to apply for residency after Brexit will only be granted leniency from deportation in exceptional circumstances, according to people briefed on the plans.

...

There are fears that many EU citizens will fall through the net and not register in time, creating the potential for another Windrush scandal.

Campaigners say vulnerable people such as the elderly, those not in regular employment, and domestic violence victims are particularly at risk."

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-migrants-deported-boris-johnson-settled-status-application-a9203056.html

We had mummy iirc, on here complaining that people on benefits were getting free things that working people didn't
and that it was soooo important to check that noone on benefits got something they didn't deserve

and saying 'well why should I pay for something other people get free' is simply answered 'because you can

Which is exactly what I’m not saying

I’m saying why should everyone get free broadband when the majority, not all of us, can afford it.

Why should ferry companies get free £££ millions because the government can't tell its arse from its elbow, while pointy has to provide Internet and food so a teenager can get an éducation?

Your priorities are showing and they are not pretty.

My dad's bandwidth - a mile from the Glasgow City conurbation in East Dunbartonshire has only recently got his bandwidth increased to not much over 2Mb after a special investment programme finally improved the broadband capability in the wee hamlet in which he lives (it was supposedly "too far" from the exchange). At least it's now means that he can consider streaming a programme - until then it wasn't worth it.

Although last night I was saying how unrealistic the proposal was (especially if it just involved Openreach), Oakenbeach had some interesting alternative ideas to achieve a similar outcome. And I like the fact that it had opened debate about what it means to have truly universal and fast broadband for everyone.

It's all very well having an objective of, say, 80% of households have access (which they don't even at the moment) - as that final 20% would then be at even more of a disadvantage and without government intervention, it won't be commercially feasible to connect them.

I'm not even going to start on the ridiculousness of "But there is free Wi-fi in city centres" comment

We had mummy iirc, on here complaining that people on benefits were getting free things that working people didn't and that it was soooo important to check that noone on benefits got something they didn't deserve

Yes, because that’s a representative sample 🤔

This thread is so anti Tory you completely fail to spot the fact that it’s is Labour who are going to hand Tories their victory.

After the WA has been signed, iirc there is a much longer grace period for expats to register than is the case with No Deal
Also, the documentation required should be pretty basic, instead of the continual history the H.O. is currently demanding

Otherwise ... any deportations of E27 citizens by the UK govt would cause prompt retaliation against UK interests
(but not against UK expats)

I would expect the EP to block any trade deal with the UK - probably heads of govt would do so as well via EUCO and stop Barnier's mandate to negotiate

But we really all want to protect it for when we have no job, and for when we can't afford it.

Which is fine - if / when you can’t afford it, it’s there. In the meantime you pay for it because you can

There may be places where it makes much more sense to improve mobile coverage. But I think it's good that Labour at least wants to have a conversation about communications infrastructure.

pmk and raising a glass to squid and all our amazing NHS staff. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

But I think it's good that Labour at least wants to have a conversation about communications infrastructure.

Which is fine - but it’s entirely different to ‘free broadband for all’

These threads are very "anti-Tory" because of their record and their expected policies if they win the GE

Few here have any illusions about Labour, or the Remain Alliance, or their chances,

but that is NO reason to stop criticising the most despicable hard right Tory party ever, that has even disgusted its own former ministers and PM

that has even disgusted its own former ministers and PM

Because Labour hasn’t disgusted its former ministers and PM?

but that is NO reason to stop criticising the most despicable hard right Tory party ever, that has even disgusted its own former ministers and PM

Criticise away - it’s not going to change the fact the alternative isn’t any better and actually more people support the Tories right now than anyone else.

After the WA has been signed, iirc there is a much longer grace period for expats to register than is the case with No Deal

This is true, but will outreach funding be maintained during that time?

Even if the settled status take up is 98% (which would be extraordinary) that implies that around 80,000 people could end up at risk of deportation.

Ireland obviously considers that bringing in high-speed broadband everywhere is vital to its future

"The Commission assessed the planned measures under the EU state aid rules, including broadband guidelines dating from 2013."

"It decided that the scheme's "positive effects on competition in the Irish broadband market" outweigh potential negative effects brought about by the public intervention."

Labour want to remove competition in the UK broadband market.

I'm not even going to start on the ridiculousness of "But there is free Wi-fi in city centres" comment

It’s not at all ridiculous because it reduces the number of people who absolutely can’t acces WiFi.

I’m not saying there aren’t those who can’t, I’m saying the vast majority have ways they can, so making it free for everyone is unnecessary.

Since this election has been called I've barely seen anything posted by pro Tory posters about what the Tories are going to do for the next 5 years. Let alone anything costed. It's just wall to wall slagging off Labour and Corbyn.

It's fair enough to criticise Labour. But I've not seen anything that people are cheer leading Johnson or the Tories. And their policies. Or the cabinet. It's just not Labour.

Maybe there isn't anything to say? The B word is hardly mentioned.

Yeah if you want broadband fuck off out of the house to access it!