Westminstenders: The Non-Pact Pact

[RedToothBrush]

The Brexit Party and the Conservatives have agreed a trumpian pact to no deal. Led by the ERG.

They don't want you to know its a pact because the Conservatives still want One Nation Conservatives types to believe they are still One Nation Conservatives, simply because they say they are. They are not.

The Brexit Party won't stand any candidates in a Conservative held seat. But don't be surprised if there isn't more Non-Pact tactical stepping aside. This of course won't be a Pact. Cos the Brexit Party say its not. And the Conservative Party say its not.

The Liberal Democrats, Plaid and the Greens are in an electoral pact. They say they are in an electoral pact and have published a list.

Meanwhile the Labour Party isn't in a Pact. But there is still talk that in key seats that someone (either the LDs or Labour) should stand aside to try and deseat key Conservatives. This won't happen because the Lib Dems and Labour are not in a pact. And when they say they are not in a pact they aren't.

If after an election we have a hung parliament then either the Conservatives or Labour who are not in a pact and say they will never be in a pact, will try and woo someone to a kingmaker and be in government with them, probably on a supply and demand basis rather than coalition. They'll deny this but we kind of know how this goes...

The Bolshie Brexies could stand as Independent candidates, or they could form a group and stand under any name that wasn't seen as passing off, something like "The Independent Group for Brexit."

Whether they can get their money back depends on what they signed.

Those polls really are all over the place Just, aren't they?

The only consistency is the inconsistency

The Bolshie Brexies could stand as Independent candidates, or they could form a group and stand under any name that wasn't seen as passing off, something like "The Independent Group for Brexit."

The problem with that is that no one knows who the fuck they are

The needed that "Brexit Party Candidate" (although company is a more accurate term) on the ballot paper to draw in their fellow Brexiteers. Who, let's be honest, haven't really much form for reading as it is.

My legal curiosity was piqued by the idea that a candidate could put themselves on the ballot as the Brexit Party Candidate, and we'd have to stock up on popcorn to see how the electoral commission and courts unpicked it all later. Returning to that theme of the law only being able to act in retrospect.

Yes, it’s really good DGR.

As is “The Scots Who Fought Franco”.

I've lost the thread now but someone on twitter had some interesting analysis of what currently polling means for seats and alliances.

Basically, on a uniform (countrywide) swing, the alliances don't do much for either side. Tories get an overall majority. Most effective alliance tactic would be for Farage to stand down in labour seats.

On a differential swing as per Best for Britain's assumption, the remain alliance is pretty effective (Tories biggest party but potentially not a majority). Tory-Farage alliance doesn't do much. Again, it would be better (for the Tories) if Farage stood down in Labour seats not conservative ones.

Pollsters know nothing. They can no longer sample accurately. As it stands, they 'adjust' their raw data according to how wrong they think it is. Basically, they are guessing.

Has anyone here ever answered/spoken to a poll person?

I'm on YouGovs panel. That's it. And whilst I did a poll last week that was specifically for political purposes, I didn't do one in 2017 (much like jury service ).

Was it online DGR?

From twatter

Lib Dem MP Sam Gyimah causes anger and outrage after suggesting Labour MP Emma Dent Coad was partly responsible for the Grenfell Tower fire

He has called for Labour to step aside in next month’s election in Kensington & Chelsea

WTAF!!!!

Was it online DGR?

All YouGov is. They occasionally run special real-world forums (paid for by clients) but as far as I know not for politics.

One thing to bear in mind is that most polling organisations spend as much effort on checking respondents as Facebook and Twitter do to their accounts. So not very much. Which means there are as vulnerable - if not more so - to the bot activity that floods social media.

So it's entirely possible the poll results being reported have been tainted to some degree anyway. Although such high-jinks can only penetrate that part of the world that is connected ... there's a whole underclass that simply can't be reached except for knocking on doors, or stopping in the street. Which are the most expensive ways to poll, and therefore the least used.

The primary job of a polling company is to sell polls. Anything else is pretty much a nice to have.

We return to Ian Hislops well-placed observation at the end of "A History of Fake News" ...

Who is telling me this ?
What have they to gain from it ?

Lib Dem MP Sam Gyimah causes anger and outrage after suggesting Labour MP Emma Dent Coad was partly responsible for the Grenfell Tower fire

Is there a poster of her with a box of matches yet ?

LD candidate has stood down for family reasons in Uxbridge. Opportunity to give LAB a free run at melting the Fatberg?

...I assume he means she was an opposition councillor on the RBKCC when it approved the cladding.

I assume he means she was an opposition councillor on the RBKCC when it approved the cladding.

Personally, I assumed he meant he wanted his name in the press for a bit.

Whatever the case, he is a bit of a twit.

BBC Politics
@BBCPolitics
· 3h
“You are making it up, it’s really shameful, you do a great disservice to the British electorate with this performance”

Momentum’s National coordinator Laura Parker hits back at Tory Helen Whately's Labour “reckless spendathon” claim

#politicslive bbc.in/2CA41oq

twitter.com/i/status/1194231136618070016

Answering the question about candidates standing for The Brexit Party in defiance of The Wise Ones demands, it seems unlikely as their agent would be on the hook for any improper submissions.

Also, there's a time frame to challenge nominations.

"Done up like a kipper" does seem viciously ironic, in the circumstances. If I genuinely believed Nigel had the class to have thought of that himself, I would beetle off to another thread on these boards, and agree with a rabble rousing OP

Whatever the case, he is a bit of a twit

But still got a stonking majority (well over 50% of the vote) once they stuck a blue rosette on him here. Bit more difficult for him now as an LD in a marginal seat.

They can't stand for The Brexit Party, but recalling dear old Nick Griffin who explained, he had talks with" a Ku-Klux-Klan" but not the KKK, where there's a will...

Maybe some BXP will stand as "Independent Get Brexit Done" or even "Independent Brexiter"

They can't stand for The Brexit Party, but recalling dear old Nick Griffin who explained, he had talks with" a Ku-Klux-Klan" but not the KKK, where there's a will

Maybe some BXP will stand as "Independent Get Brexit Done" or even "Independent Brexiter"

The problem with that approach is no one will know who the fuck they are. They were counting - relying - on voters having a "Brexit Party" box to put a tick into. Without that, people who are devoted to Brexit will have to go out and research the candidates. And I really can't see why they would break a lifetimes habit now.

And that doesn't address the issue of poor Wayne Bayley who says he has already spent money on getting his election material printed. Which presumably is now only useful as improvised flood defences along the Don.

I have zero fucks for any candidate who has lost out by believing in Farage. Schadenfreude doesn't even begin to come close to it.

As an Independent, you can only have "Indpendent" on the ballot paper, and no logo. You need to get people to associate your name with your cause via your campaign material.

I remember when Grenfell first happened I was ruling against the Tory government- when someone pointed out that it was a labour controlled council..... was she on that council?
The council and government are both culpable as far as I am concerned, I am afraid.

Rachel Clarke
@doctor_oxford
·
7h
I'm sorry, but why should we believe you with a track record like this since 2010?

❌ 15k hospital beds closed
❌ Half all district nurses culled
❌ 6k mental health nurses cut
❌ 40k nurse & 10k doctor vacancies created
❌ War waged on junior doctors
❌ Devastated staff morale
Quote Tweet

Boris Johnson
@BorisJohnson
· Nov 11
A majority Conservative government will strengthen #OurNHS

✔️ 50 million more GP appointments
✔️ 6,000 more GPs
✔️ 40 new hospitals
✔️ A skills based immigration system

I remember when Grenfell first happened I was ruling against the Tory government- when someone pointed out that it was a labour controlled council..... was she on that council? The council and government are both culpable as far as I am concerned, I am afraid.

It’s not it’s a Tory council.