Westminstenders: The Non-Pact Pact

[RedToothBrush]

The Brexit Party and the Conservatives have agreed a trumpian pact to no deal. Led by the ERG.

They don't want you to know its a pact because the Conservatives still want One Nation Conservatives types to believe they are still One Nation Conservatives, simply because they say they are. They are not.

The Brexit Party won't stand any candidates in a Conservative held seat. But don't be surprised if there isn't more Non-Pact tactical stepping aside. This of course won't be a Pact. Cos the Brexit Party say its not. And the Conservative Party say its not.

The Liberal Democrats, Plaid and the Greens are in an electoral pact. They say they are in an electoral pact and have published a list.

Meanwhile the Labour Party isn't in a Pact. But there is still talk that in key seats that someone (either the LDs or Labour) should stand aside to try and deseat key Conservatives. This won't happen because the Lib Dems and Labour are not in a pact. And when they say they are not in a pact they aren't.

If after an election we have a hung parliament then either the Conservatives or Labour who are not in a pact and say they will never be in a pact, will try and woo someone to a kingmaker and be in government with them, probably on a supply and demand basis rather than coalition. They'll deny this but we kind of know how this goes...

Britain Elects
@britainelects
·
7m
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 35% (+1)
LAB: 29% (+3)
LDEM: 17% (-2)
BREX: 10% (-2)
GRN: 1% (-)

via
@Survation
, 06 - 08 Nov

And now there are a lot of angry BXPers let down by Farage and , instead of voting tory, just not voting.

Absolutely... I just don’t buy the idea that the BXP not standing will necessarily have an appreciable impact.

If you were planning to vote BXP in a marginal it means that either your hatred of the Tories or your mania for a pure Brexit is so great that you’d risk allowing a LD or Labour candidate to win the seat, rather than accept the “compromise” of BJ’s very hard, Baker/Francois, endorsed Brexit. Such people won’t simply swap their allegiance to the Tories - they’ll spoilt their ballot/won’t vote/vote for an ultra-Brexit independent.... or perhaps even revert back to Labour (if anti-Tory hatred is a driving factor and they were Labour in the first instance).

There will inevitably be a few who will cross back to the Tories, but these risk being out-numbered by Remainer Tories for whom an “unholy pact” with Farage is a step too far.

The only person who stands to gain is Farage, as he can no longer be a convenient scapegoat on 13 December if the Tories don’t get a majority. I believe his driving motivation will be not to go down in history as the man who prevented Brexit.

" Politics is show business for ugly people."

and it's getting truer by the day.

Britain Elects @britainelects · 7m Westminster voting intention:

Just musing that despite several tens if not hundreds of these polls being published over the past (say) two years, I've never answered one. Which begs some questions as to how "random" they are.

When all the polling organisations were flogging their insights (well, trying to ) to my last company, they made it a positive point that they had an enormous "panel" (as men do ) which they could segment any which way till sunset (on the understanding that all criteria were self-supplied ...) in order to extract those pearls of wisdom a prospective client might need into the marketing strategy for widgets over wands.

Or whatever.

Which is pretty much the antithesis of what is needed for accurate voting intention polling ?

Those polls really are all over the place Just, aren't they?

Just reading that Farage has told Eddie Mair on LBC: No refunds.

I see Frank Dobson former Labour MP and London mayoral candidate has died

Frank Dobson: Ex-Labour minister dies aged 79 www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50391439

.

I then told him that I would rather be dead than vote Tory/ Brexit party! He literally ran down my path!

That really made me laugh, Sos - great mental image of him scurrying down your path as quick as he could go!

Just reading that Farage has told Eddie Mair on LBC: No refunds.

He was uncharacteristically straightforward about it as well - Mair asked him a few times and he flatly said no refunds. Guess he's already spent it on ermine?

I then told him that I would rather be dead than vote Tory/ Brexit party!

Sostenueto didn't you mean to say you would rather be dead in a ditch?

I remember seeing Frank Dobson standing in the pouring rain in East London handing out leaflets all by himself during the Mayoral election.
I was rather surprised and moved at the time. It was the least glitzy political thing I had seen.

Spain Socialists Strike Deal with Podemos

So the PSOE and Podemos have resolved their differences, at least temporarily (think the Vox surge may have sharpened their thinking there).

They are still short of an outright majority (even with Mais Pais, the Podemos offshoot) so they’ll need either support from, or more likely abstention of, some of the smaller parties, including pro-independence regional parties.

I also wonder if Ciudanos might rethink their move to the right strategy, after their vote collapsed and Rivera resigned. Those 10 deputies could be key.

There are lots of parallels between what’s going on with government in Spain and what’s going on here.

But increasingly, with the rise of the far-right across the Western world, I’m seeing how Spanish politics is currently really lining up along the same lines as the Spanish Civil War. Which some regard as the “dress rehearsal” for WWII.

Sobering stuff. Time to get our act together. IMVHO, the Far right is only ever defeated when absolutely everyone else forgets their differences and just doesn’t allow themselves to be divided and ruled.

If you were planning to vote BXP in a marginal it means

you are a moron.

However, (yet) another spanner for the machine, might be that 30% I was questioning upthread.

Farage has repeatedly been hailed as a "genius" for reaching the voters that other politicians could not reach, and getting their vote out. It was what scared the Tories shitless all those years ago. This famous trope that "people that had never voted before decided to vote UKIP".

However if that is true, then these virgin voters simply replaced their seasoned counterparts, as the overall turnout doesn't reflect a significant addition.

And I have repeatedly felt that the fetishisation of these voters (most disgracefully, disgustingly, and cravenly by Theresa May) might just be a tad over enthusiastic, and that they might not remain engaged enough to continue voting in future. In fact there's been a constant undertow of "why bother voting, we'll just be ignored again ?" since talk of an election.

So stirring that into the mix, there's even less clarity or certainty in any numbers.

I wonder how many Brexit Company candidates are going to ignore the Fuhrers orders, and stand anyway ? (And more as a legal curiosity, what could he do ? If anything ?)

Guy Verhofstadt said support for the European Union has increased since Brexit because EU citizens are not "as stupid as the Brits"

Some of my French friends initially said ‘oh we’d leave too if we could’ I told them they wouldn’t if they knew what the reality was. It was probably more polite sympathy than truth but either way they’ve gone very quiet now.

I’m seeing how Spanish politics is currently really lining up along the same lines as the Spanish Civil War.

"Land and Freedom" is an outstanding film of the 90s. Well worth it, if you can find it anywhere.

I wonder how many Brexit Company candidates are going to ignore the Fuhrers orders, and stand anyway ? (And more as a legal curiosity, what could he do ? If anything

That's a point. Seeing as they're not getting their money back anyway. Wonder if it's occurred to them?

oh dear, Jeremy Corbyn just made a joke about socialism to the photographers hustling to get a picture of him. 'now guys you need to cooperate - under socialism you'll all cooperate' ... expect right wing express frothing in 3 2 1...

Interesting, would you describe courting other groups of voters as "fetishization?" or does this term apply to just these 30% who UKIP/BXP and Nige' could reach.

Whether those people motivated to vote in 2014/15/16 will continue to vote? That is an interesting question. "why bother voting, we'll just be ignored again" would be a very easy sentiment to succumb to IMO if Leaving the EU does not happen. I would think that outcome would confirm lots of those people in exactly that view.

Has anyone here ever answered/spoken to a poll person?

I don't know how they work. They must phone you. No one has ever spoken to me.

Guy Verhofstadt said support for the European Union has increased since Brexit because EU citizens are not "as stupid as the Brits"

It wasn't quite like that - he was talking about the dilemma for the EU that public opinion in europe was still pro the EU-project, i.e. - 'we are not so stupid as the Brits to go out' - but at the same time the Union is not fulfilling the dream of a united europe that people wanted.

It was back in the spring by the way

Rather late and very weary PMK

Interesting, would you describe courting other groups of voters as "fetishization?" or does this term apply to just these 30% who UKIP/BXP and Nige' could reach.

Just the 30% that it seems Farage magicked up out of thin air (but as we've already agreed, he didn't. He just swapped them for seasoned voters who chose not to vote. For whatever reason).

Whether those people motivated to vote in 2014/15/16 will continue to vote? That is an interesting question.

I really am not as stupid as I seem ...

At times.

It wasn't quite like that - he was talking about the dilemma for the EU that public opinion in europe was still pro the EU-project, i.e. - 'we are not so stupid as the Brits to go out' - but at the same time the Union is not fulfilling the dream of a united europe that people wanted

Some people wanted ...