To feel so fucking depressed and angry about brexit?

[ssd]

I'm Scottish. I voted to remain. It feels like nothing I vote for matters. I despise Farage and Johnstone. I despise the call for sovereignty certain parts of England still believe in. I despise of the right wing media.

I really feel this country is fucked, unless you have money behind you and beside you.

Lonely planet,

The devil, here, is in the detail. It does not take many bankers from Kensington, earning 500k per annum (or, sometimes, even £5 moo) to raise an average, and these will virtually all remain post Brexit.

A median or breakdown per quartile would be really interesting her.

Attitudes vary depending on what question is asked.

This is true. And when people are asked about migration policies that don't and can't exist, they often choose those unicorn policies over credible ones.

You will also see big differences when the question makes clear that FOM is two-sided, because people by and large do not want to reduce their own freedoms.

The majority in favour of FoM that I cited was to a fairly neutrally worded question that explicitly included U.K. citizens. And it's consistent with other polling that shows that public concern about migration has fallen quite dramatically among the public in the last three years (the narrow MN leaver population is much more ideological about migration and race than people generally).

Larry

Hmmm glad some one thinks [banking jobs] will virtually all remain post Brexit. Haven't you heard- it's not just the EBA that left.

https://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/3000398/brexit-banks-moving-out-of-london

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-companies-leaving-uk-list-job-cuts-eu-no-deal-customs-union-a8792296.html

I think it will be interesting to watch what happens if the Conservatives win this GE with a majority, the Brexit ball will be firmly back in their court and they will have campaigned to get it done, cue squeaky sphincters. If they get a majority all eyes will be on them all to vote through everything Brexity, all the time, at all cost, regardless.
If they win with a majority, the opposition only needs to oppose, safe in the knowledge that no negative outcomes can be blamed on them.

Eu citizens now leaving the UK "contributed £2,300 more to public purse each year than the average native born adult".They cost less and contribute more than native borns -equalling a net contribution of £78,000 to the exchequer over their lifespan in the UK.

Those estimates from one academic study (estimates because the government do not actually collect all the relevant data) include the Swiss banker earning £200,000 pa (EFTA citizens were included) and the labourer/car washer earning £10,000 pa. Any children born to these individuals become a 'burden' on the state in their own right - or not, if the Swiss banker pays for private schooling and healthcare.

the relaxed Asian visa requirements which are part and parcel of trade deals start to kick in

You do seem to have a problem with this.
The link you posted earlier detailed visas for Asian graduates.

Lonely Planet,

So we have a 9 month old article or one from that oft quoted source ‘Efinancialcareers’.

How about a more recent Guardian article?

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/04/will-londons-post-brexit-future-be-as-gloomy-as-predicted

I think the problem was uncontrolled immigration From EU countries rather than just a dislike of anyone European

I get that. It's a recurring leaver argument. My point earlier was about the reality of immigration rather than the principle of controlling it. There will still be low paid immigration. I don't think that will end. As a result, it'll be a simple swap of one origin of migrant for another. I'm not accusing leave voters of specifically disliking Europeans but I'm accusing Brexiter politicians of knowing full well that they will keep facilitating access to low skilled low paid (and soon low- rights) migrants for those 'bad employers' we were talking about earlier. The native population won't benefit one bit. It'll be the same all over again. So I was just thinking what's the point? Is it just because anything/anyone related to the EU is too toxic for them?

mamam
If they paid less than the legal NMW, they broke the law

the cheapskate British bosses are to blame
not the poor kids
like the Vietnamese brought in illegally to be slaves in Nail Bars

The problem lies in Whitehall, not Brussels

And it's consistent with other polling that shows that public concern about migration has fallen quite dramatically among the public in the last three years

My money would be on this being down to the fact we are no longer in the middle of a Mediterranean refugee crisis and is nothing to do with plumbers from Poland. There's a reason Farage used his 'Breaking Point' poster, many, many people couldn't see the difference between EU citizens and refugees, evidenced my the number of people who voted Leave to stop and more muslims coming here. The timing was perfect for Farage.

And also the lack of understanding of what FOM and Schengen mean.

Yes Larry I think we are in agreement -the up to date article you linked to agrees with the link I posted too. Banks and Financial services are moving assets and people.

1. The article you linked to confirms assets being moved out of the UK on a large scale. The estimate in your article was around £1 TRILLION of assets will have moved out of the Uk by the time we finally leave. Whilst only thousands of employees have already left, others who are responsible for these assets will also depart over time.Its progressive isn't it.

1. The article confirms the impact on London’s reputation. The Z/Yen consultancy in your link has published the Global Financial Centres Index every six months for over a decade. London’s decline has been far sharper than any other of the top centres, and Paris has moved up. The mid-September ranking, confirms London's relative position has been slipping.Whilst London was second only to New York globally now the New York lead has more than doubled.

The EBAs move to Paris and Bank of America’s decision to relocate its euro trading, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock,Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Standard Chartered etc are only the start.

But hey its worth it for... err ...remind me again.

www.ft.com/content/3bdc1840-56df-11e9-91f9-b6515a54c5b1

Let it be noted, for the sake of completeness, that Larry has previously said he does not live in the UK so unless he has recently moved back to the U.K., he will not be affected by asset flight from London.

Lonely planet mum - How can you say it wasn't detrimental? Perhaps you weren't affected, but we were. My husband is in the building trade and at one point was struggling to find work. At the job centre the only building jobs being advertised were through agencies. It was a very difficult time for us. Can you not remember the protests from British workers and Brown promising British jobs for British workers which was deemed to be illegal. Why is it illegal to put your own country's workers first?

MamaMia It’s not me** saying that EU migration was beneficial it’s what several in depth experienced researchers said. It's really complicated -but what the tabloids and some politicians said was not true.

It's irrelevant now really, as the graphs upthread show as a result of the vote European workers are declining. Asian born workers are increasing to replace them.

But as so many leavers said (and still say) that the EU migration was detrimental I wanted to understand and read loads on it.

EU migration (which has now declined hugely) did benefit the country as a whole at the time.EU migrants were net contributors, contributing billions more than native borns as shown in the charts up thread. This is in part because there is no cost educating them and many leave before they need elderly care. By contrast native borns use more resources.

The studies showed that (contrary to what people thought) those who arrived in Britain in the four years before the ref paid £2.54 billion more in income tax and national insurance than they received in benefits.

•The impact on wages and jobs from increased immigration was relatively small - some evidence actually showed an increase in average wages of 0.1 to 0.3%. This is because the immigrants consume goods, food, accommodation and services so create jobs and create jobs.
.

•The Office of Budget Responsibility said the migration labour contribution helped to grow the economy by 0.6% a year.

•	Previous research also showed  that whilst there were some very small decline in wages in some localised areas this predominantly affected resident workers who were themselves migrants. This is because the skills of new immigrants are similar to the skills of migrants already employed in the UK. So statistically across the country as a whole UK-born workers were largely unaffected.

---

But it doesn't matter now really as there are reduced EU born arrivals... I guess we need to get up to speed and assess the future effect of other things including :

1. The job losses from the pound falling and businesses relocating to the EU. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTIPx0lI6pb-3Tn-3D6uNJNyKcCd-A8uPMxViagyJAR9T87ZmnSdAEPCzp5ljlNYoUNdxJiJqQdBm7b/pubhtml )

1. The replacement immigration demographic.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01049.x

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/~uctpb21/Cpapers/CDP033_08.pdf

https://fullfact.org/immigration/immigration-and-jobs-labour-market-effects-immigration/

https://www.ft.com/content/797f7b42-bb44-11e8-94b2-17176fbf93f5

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/20/reality-check-are-eu-migrants-really-taking-british-jobs

Misti,

Let it be said ‘for the sake of completeness’ that I live in London and have my entire life! If you can find an instance of me saying anything else, please show me. If you wish to engage in ad hominem attacks rather than engaging intelligently with, ya know, actual arguments and evidence, at least get it right.

Lonely,

You are quoting incredibly selectively from the Guardian article which was basically saying how reluctant bankers were to move out of London, where their families are settled and their children are settled in (generally expensive private) schools.

Bankers are very quick to throw their toys out of the cot (I was one for 20+ years, so I do know of what I speak) and threaten to take their ‘talent’ elsewhere. It happened over the ill conceived bonus tax and the 50% tax rate, but very few actually decamped. The restaurants, cheap nannies (aka au pairs), international connections and London private schools are too hard to leave.

Let’s examine the ‘asset flight’ talked about. Are these real material assets or just changing the nominee holders of stocks and shares and corporate bonds in order to allow easy trading. If mostly the latter, as I suspect, the only money lost to the UK will be a few bps (1/100th of 1%) in custody fees which, even on a trillion, is not that significant.

The reality is that Brexit is (almost certainly) an economic disbenefit but, if you look at the link which I showed above, it is relatively small. There is an intelligent discussion to be had about the benefits (if any) of leaving versus this small economic cost, but, sadly, we have a ludicrously polarised discussion.

If you reply, please engage with my actual points and not what you assume my views to be.

EU migration (which has now declined hugely) did benefit the country as a whole at the time.

It may have benefited the country as a whole, but within that, some people have benefited and others have not. The fact that some have benefited is no concilation to the people who were detrimentally effected, such as tradesmen/workers in the North, many of whom have struggled with cheap competition, some of whom have lost their jobs/businesses. It's no comfort to them that there are people in London/SE who have benefited.

It's always hard to untangle multiple factors, but most economic studies show that migration has almost no impact on wage levels.

And when one source of migrants is cut off, the work they did is rarely taken up by locals instead. It tends to be done either by another group of migrants (as is happening in the U.K. with EU immigration flatlining but ROW immigration rising rapidly) or via automation as has happened in some US agriculture segments (and will certainly have to happen in the U.K. if the fruit and veg sector is to remain viable).

via automation as has happened in some US agriculture segments (and will certainly have to happen in the U.K. if the fruit and veg sector is to remain viable).
I’m surprised this isn’t already happening in UK given the reports of tons of fruit left unpicked this summer.
Presumably this is because of the high cost of the robot machinery.

I’m surprised this isn’t already happening in UK given the reports of tons of fruit left unpicked this summer.

Yes, where are all the unhappy apple growers? I couldn't see a named one being interviewed.

"HOPS is urging growers to contact them for support in finding labour after the NFU revealed that the equivalent of 16 million apples has been left to rot in UK orchards due to the shortfall in labour."

"The issues surrounding recruitment of seasonal labour are well documented at the moment but HOPS is reassuring growers that it has fulfilled nearly 100% of its labour requirements this year."

hopslaboursolutions.com/2019/10/21/support-for-struggling-growers/

The amount of apples left to rot this year probably has more to do with oversupply;

"It's no secret that there is an oversupply of apples across the industry driven by increased lifespan of orchards, increased efficiency, bumper crops and changing market dynamics."

Nope, British industry much slower to install robots than other countries. (Will see if I can find the article about this)

In many manufacturing facilities it is actually cheaper and easier to re-site than it is to retrofit automation. Some manufacturers have bitten the bullet completely and relocated elsewhere in Europe or overseas. This happened to the last factory I worked in - manufacturing moved to Poland and the Czech Republic as it was more economical than automating the UK site.

lonelyplanetmum
Your FT link is behind a paywall and the UCL link doesn't work.

The opening statement in your Full Fact link says this;

"UK research suggests that immigration has a small impact on average wages of existing workers but more significant effects for certain groups: low-wage workers lose while medium and high-paid workers gain."

Automated fruit-picking on its way though;

"Autonomous machine expected to pick more than 25,000 raspberries a day, outpacing human workers."

"The robot has been developed in partnership with Hall Hunter, one of Britain’s main berry growers which supplies Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Waitrose. Standing at 1.8 metres tall, the wheeled machine with its robotic arm has begun field trials in a greenhouse at a Hall Hunter farm near Chichester in West Sussex."

www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/may/26/world-first-fruit-picking-robot-set-to-work-artificial-intelligence-farming

lonelyplanetmum
I see that Tesla is top of your job loss list - Tesla are building their first European factory in Germany.

Link from the link - Elon Musk 2014;
“We’ll have our first European factory in continental Europe, perhaps the Netherlands, but it makes sense to have one in the UK once we’re producing more than 500,000 units."

We haven't lost out on 10,000 jobs - the Netherlands have.