To feel so fucking depressed and angry about brexit?

[ssd]

I'm Scottish. I voted to remain. It feels like nothing I vote for matters. I despise Farage and Johnstone. I despise the call for sovereignty certain parts of England still believe in. I despise of the right wing media.

I really feel this country is fucked, unless you have money behind you and beside you.

lonelyplanetmum

Your link at 05:51 also says this further down the page:

"These statistics should be taken with a considerable amount of salt."
"As I’ve been pointing out for some time, the ONS’s figures on net migration–people entering and leaving the country–are well out of line with the population statistics"

The author (Jonathan Portes) links to his previous article from June 2018;

Misunderestimating migration
voxeu.org/content/misunderestimating-migration

"According to the population estimates, the number of people born elsewhere in the EU and now resident in the UK increased by nearly 1.5 million over the eight years to mid-2017.That suggests that net migration of EU citizens to the UK over that period should have been a similar number. However, the migration statistics show cumulative net EU migration of only about 950,000."

"A very similar discrepancy–but in the opposite direction–applies to non-EU nationals.The IPS suggests total net migration of nearly 1.5 million, but the population estimates say that the number of people born outside the EU and resident in the UK has increased by less than 900,000.On the face of it, half a million people from outside the EU have vanished, but they’ve been replaced by about the same number of Europeans who we didn’t know we had."

"More likely is that one, or both, surveys is badly wrong.The obvious candidate is the IPS."

"It has long been obvious that it has been overestimating student net migration from outside the EU; it now seems likely that this has translated into an overestimate of non-EU migration overall."

"Meanwhile, it undercounted EU migration in the 2000s" "and I was arguing two years ago that the volume of National Insurance numbers being issued to EU citizens suggested their numbers were still being undercounted; this data seems to bear this out. Almost certainly, some EU citizens who arrive here thinking they’re only going to stay for a short time–and hence don’t tell the survey that they’re immigrants–end up staying.Nor is the APS immune to error–the number of people who are prepared to take the time to answer a very long list of questions has been shrinking, and maybe recent migrants are even more reluctant."

... "it does seem reasonably clear that in the recent past EU migration has been significantly higher, and non-EU migration significantly lower, than we thought."

Immigration should be in a strict Aussie style points system. If you do not meet their criteria which is strict, then forget it. Illegal immigrants are swiftly removed unlike here with our useless Boarder Force

There has always been the power to control immigration from the EU but it has never been implemented. EU member states can repatriate EU nationals after 3 months if they have not found a job or if they do not have the means to support themselves. Anyhow thanks to Brexit people who work in vital jobs are now leaving in droves and others do not want to come here, meaning that the NHS is on its knees and the care homes like the one DHs aunt is in are considering closure. But on you go with your Daily Fail soundbites.

EU member states can repatriate EU nationals after 3 months if they have not found a job or if they do not have the means to support themselves.

Actually, it seems that 'jobseekers' have 6 months to look for work.

Sample story from EU Commission website:

"As a jobseeker, Marta is entitled to stay in Spain for at least 6 months without having to register her residence there.She only has to prove that she is a jobseeker who is actively looking for a job.The Spanish authorities cannot require her to demonstrate she can support herself financially."

Find out everything you need to know about living in another EU country

"If you have not found a job during the first 6 months of your stay, the national authorities can assess your right to stay longer. For this, they will ask for evidence that you"
◾are actively looking for a job and
◾have a good chance of finding one

"Your host country can ask you to leave if you can't prove that you have a realistic chance of finding work there."

"In exceptional cases" "your host country can deport you on grounds of public policy, public security, or public health - but only if it can prove you pose a serious threat."

"The deportation decision or request to leave must be given to you in writing. It must state all the reasons for your deportation and specify how you can appeal and by when."

europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/residence-rights/index_en.htm#just-moved

And here's the stats on how European migrants living in the UK "contribute £2,300 more to public purse each year than the average adult" equalling a net contribution of £78,000 to the exchequer over their lifespan in the UK.

On average the non EU migrants which we are now courting such as from India (the most likely replacement home country) don't contribute as much overall. But hey if leavers voted to swap EU migration for non - EU, so be it.
I don't mind really as long as we have enough nurses and families don't get separated.

My main objection is to tabloid soundbites without trying to understand migration. It just encourages people like my FIL whose whole voting strategy is now based on ditching membership of a lucrative trading body in order to somehow whitewash the U.K. into an Anglo Saxon 'British' population? This isn't how trade and international labour mobility works- it really isn't.

www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba

On average the non EU migrants which we are now courting such as from India (the most likely replacement home country)

You keep mentioning 'people from India' - I know quite a few people with Indian heritage - they all live in big houses and pay private school fees;

"Official figures demonstrate that Indian employees have the highest average hourly pay rate among all ethnic groups in Britain. A study in 2011 found British Indians have among the lowest poverty rates among ethnic groups in Britain. Studies and official figures have shown that Indians are more likely to be employed in professional and managerial occupations, than all other ethnic groups, including White British people."

The people you refer to in this article are British, Clavinova. Not immigrants.

Ethnicity is an irrelevance imo.

India want visas for doctors, nurses and IT consultants...

OECD Development Matters;

"The rise of India’s middle class"
oecd-development-matters.org/2019/05/07/look-east-instead-of-west-for-the-future-global-middle-class/

People here who are talking about the impact of immigration on services, how schools are bursting and can't get a GP appointment etc...,
I live j in n an area with very little immigration, mist people are British, white and reasonably well off. Guess what....schools are still packed, it's still a nightmare to get an appointment with a doctor and if you need an operation you'll have to wait 18 months, for non life threatening.
When are people going to realise it's bloody cuts and underfunding by thr Tories that has wrecked our schools and NHS??
And yes I am also livid about the most stupid decision this country has ever taken!

I don't understand the posts in response to the earlier ones on this thread.

Are people disagreeing that post Brexit the mostly likely replacements for the EU migrants will be from India? I think that's fairly universally acknowledged and proven. It's less likely to be those already successful in Their home country who want to migrate but more likely to be younger people wanting to seek a new life and progress?

There's loads of studies and stats as linked below. It's just a prediction of future arrivals that all. The trends are already showing up so it's hardly contentious.

Anecdotally I've seen this shift already at DDs school. We've had (sad) leaving parties for Polish and German families moving on and then coffees to welcome new Mums from India and the US. Whilst sad to see the EU ones feeling unwelcome and leaving, the new families seem lovely too. I can be philosophical about the shift and just make sure to keep in touch with classmates who are leaving whilst forging new friendships with the arrivals.

I will just will never get why the Faragist leaver types (like my FIL) see this shift as worth all the hassle. Concerns about immigration generally seemed to be a driver for them so I don't see why one group is better or worse than the other?

The replacements for new EU migrants will come from somewhere most likely Asia - especially India,China, Philippines .

I don't get the references to 2nd/3rd/4th generation british people - this is nothing to do with substitutions for previous EU migrants?

I'm also not sure what having friends with Indian heritage who live in big houses and pay private school fees has to do with anything? Is the point that the next decade or so of migrants will fit in well, work hard and contribute to the economy by eventually buying houses and paying school fees? I suppose that's a valid point. But many EU migrants bought big houses and paid private school fees too?

I just don't see why the next group is seen as being so much more advantageous than the last. Why was worth all this hassle, pound falling and economic down turn, jeopardising our trade, families falling out, country polarised etc etc. The end is to switch one new immigration from one continent to another. Why did this end justify the means.

"Indian citizens were the largest recipients of work visas in 2018. Chinese citizens received the largest number of Tier 1 (investor and entrepreneur) visas and Australians the largest number of Youth Mobility Scheme visas"

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/work-visas-and-migrant-workers-in-the-uk/

Indian citizens were the largest recipients of work visas in 2018.

Yes, your link shows;

"Indian nationals dominate the Tier 2 skilled employee visa category, receiving 70% of intracompany transfer visas in 2018."

"Tier 2 is for employees in graduate jobs, who must be sponsored by their employers"

"This category includes Tier 2 (general) visas for newly recruited workers coming to fill a specific vacancy, and Tier 2 (intracompany transfer) for staff being transferred from an overseas office of an international company."

"To qualify for a Tier 2 visa, workers must meet minimum earning requirements which vary by occupation and are at least £20,800 for ‘new entrants’ to the labour market, £30,000 for experienced workers, and £41,500 for intra-company transfers coming for at least a year. ‘New entrants’ include people under the age of 26, international students staying on to work in the UK after their studies, and people hired as part of ‘milkround’ graduate recruitment. Some public sector workers do not have to meet the £30,000 threshold, such as nurses who must instead receive the standard amounts specified in NHS pay-scales for the job."

So what's your point Clav ? If immigration was a driver for you and I think you've previously admitted it was.Why do you rate new migrants more from Asia to those from the Europe ?

Why do you prefer Asian migration to such an extent that it was worth all the downsides? Personally as long as we have the workers we need and families aren't forcibly disrupted by governments I don't see it matters which continent offers the most international mobility.

What I don't get is why was that switch worth the pound falling, economic down turn and jeopardising the existing free trade agreements we had through the EU with over 70 countries? I may be getting you confused with another poster ..but did you have a spouse of Asian origin- perhaps that explains why you prefer migration from Asia to that from Europe? Sorry if I got you confused with some one else.

If immigration was a driver for you and I think you've previously admitted it was.

Only in the sense that I agree with a points-based immigration system - skilled people from Asia, Europe, wherever. I mix with a lot of middle class Europeans who would meet the criteria anyway, so immigration isn't the main driver for me.

I don't see it matters which continent offers the most international mobility.
I agree.

did you have a spouse of Asian origin?
No, one set of French grandparents who live in the UK.

Great -consensus between a leaver and remainer !

I think we are now agreed on the acknowledged statistical trends that migration is likely to continue at similar rates - the main difference being that European migration of all levels is statistically likely to be replaced by migration from Asia.

What we disagree on of course is that all the other negative knock on effects on society, the priority that has been given to the ERG vision, the further progressive degradation of the welfare state, and rich / poor division were absolutely not worth it. This will always make me as angry as the OP suggested.

Yes lonely, whichever way you spin it, it's really hard not to come to the conclusion that this is down to a simple dislike of other Europeans. No one would admit this but how else can such a stance be explained? At least this has been the perception of many EU friends who have given up on the UK in the last couple of years. No amount of 'we want you to stay' from the government can chance the simple perception that EU migration is no longer wanted just because it's from the EU. Basically, everything from the EU is presented as so toxic that it unfortunately extends to the people. It's not rational. That's what's so sad about it.

Recent polling shows that as far as freedom of movement is concerned, most people have had a change of heart with about two thirds supporting it.

Polling also shows that most people who still want Brexit mainly want it so that they never have to hear about it again (in some ways I am quite looking forward to these people discovering that this debate could continue for quite some considerable time).

Recent polling shows that as far as freedom of movement is concerned, most people have had a change of heart with about two thirds supporting it.

Not necessarily. Polls have to be taken with a pinch of salt and the results can be very misleading. Attitudes vary depending on what question is asked.

whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/which-of-the-following-policies-regarding-immigration-from-the-eu-do-you-favour-the-most/

Brexit is a belief not a reality

it will disappoint everybody on all sides

Songsofsixpence - I think the problem was uncontrolled immigration From EU countries rather than just a dislike of anyone European. When the EU let poorer countries join whose wages were so much lower of course their citizens wanted to move to another country to better themselves and who could blame them, but these countries didn't have anything to attract people to them so FOM was very much one way. So we had swathes of either unskilled or low skilled labour coming in from people who were willing to work for less than the minimum wage, because even then they would earn more in a week than they would a month back home, Employers and agencies took advantage of the cheap labour and British workers couldn't compete. Anyone who was genuinely concerned at the influx was shouted down as being racist, nobody listened to them. This went on for years, so when it came to voting leave or remain I expect millions of people thought if we weren't part of the EU then their jobs would be less at risk.

Yes lonely, whichever way you spin it, it's really hard not to come to the conclusion that this is down to a simple dislike of other Europeans. No one would admit this but how else can such a stance be explained?

No, it's not - how does wanting more skilled workers, more people capable of earning £30,000 plus pa and fewer people with low/no skills show a dislike of other Europeans? Nurses and doctors from Bulgaria or India - fine by me - 3,000 more Europeans living rough in London, not so desirable.

Recent polling shows that as far as freedom of movement is concerned, most people have had a change of heart with about two thirds supporting it.

Someone forgot to tell Len McCluskey - in the news today:

"Jeremy Corbyn’s key union supporter, Unite’s Len McCluskey, has told the Labour leader that victory in the general election means winning over the party’s traditional working-class supporters with a tough line on free movement of workers."

So we had swathes of either unskilled or low skilled labour coming in from people who were willing to work for less than the minimum wage, because even then they would earn more in a week than they would a month back home, Employers and agencies took advantage of the cheap labour and British workers couldn't compete
So prosecute the BRITISH employers who broke the law .....

Listeningquietly - But they didn't actually break the law they just took advantage of really cheap labour to the detriment of British workers.

We are back to the point we were at on the thread Twelve hours ago.

EU. Migrants did. not. create.a . detriment. to British. born. workers. Some People feel that there was a detriment because they saw local changes and Farage etc encouraged this flawed belief.

Those are people's feelings -but
the government know that the actual reality is that all studies show that European migration was beneficial.

Eu citizens now leaving the UK "contributed £2,300 more to public purse each year than the average native born adult" . They cost less and contribute more than native borns -equalling a net contribution of £78,000 to the exchequer over their lifespan in the UK.

Overall in some areas across the country there is evidence that EU born workers raised wages and job creation as they go where work is, spend money on food, accommodation etc and create an extra boost. Yes of course in some places there are some homeless people (of all nationalities) but to assess the economic impact you have to consider the overall net effect. EU immigration was beneficial - no question. It's now in decline.

I think we reached consensus (from the trends that are already visible) that EU migration has fallen markedly and is being replaced by an upward curve of increasing Asian migration of all skill levels.

This trend is set to continue, especially when in a few years' time the relaxed Asian visa requirements which are part and parcel of trade deals start to kick in.

See the chart posted at 10.49 this morning.

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba

Here's an idea. Why don't we keep fom and invest money skilling up our own unskilled workforce, train more doctors, nurses, plumbers etc?

Oh, I forgot, we can't do that because we won't have any money because we're spending it all on Brexit.