Westminstenders: The end of tribalism

[RedToothBrush]

There are signs that traditional party alignment might well have broken.

The Tories have split, labour are pretending they have not.

The pattern so far seems to be closely following the EU. This favours a Tory majority.

A long way to go.

Canada Plus is a very minimal trade deal, which would leave significant Non-Tariff barriers to the EU SM

Bleh. Too much to hope that Johnson wants a softer Brexit.

"Canada Double Plus" is never going to be negotiated in 6 months

Immediately, off the top of the my head

a) CETA took seven years to negotiate (and even before then there were years of preparatory work)

b) Iirc, CETA does not include services and NTBs - both of which are critical for the UK economy and to ensure "frictionless" not going to happen trade with the EU

c) Canada is also the other side of the Atlantic so any paperwork can be checked while it is in transit. The "Short Straits" - so important for UK-EU trade (as one Brexit Secretary belatedly discovered ) are, well, short

BCF, I meant after the nomination deadline, as someone suggested on here that he could stand them down during the campaign. I am pretty sure he can't do that without arranging their deaths .

If he hasn't withdrawn their names by 4pm Thurs they'll be on the ballot papers.

I don’t think their names could be removed, no. I mean either that their name may not appear at all when nominations close in a few days, or they essentially “forget” to campaign and instead nudge their voters in Boris’ direction. This kind of informal tie-up is already happening in a number of Labour-held Tory targets.

I saw someone on Twitter say that anyone with 500 quid (and ten nominating signatures) could put their name down and stand as 'The Brexit Candidate' to take votes off the Tories, if they wanted to.

Brexit Party source tells me Farage has done this to “make sure the Conservatives are the largest party in a hung parliament

Interesting that's what he's seeing already.

However, being the largest party doesn't mean much if you can't command a majority.

Scotland may yet have a role to play ....

Lewis Goodall is quite correct.

We can't get Remain without Labour - and a lot of Remainers haven't accepted that.

If you suggest it on Twitter, you get hammered (speaking from personal experience).

It's tragic, really. Properly tragic, in that great drama could be written about it.

Meanwhile, the clock ticks and I think people start voting (postal votes) this week.

I saw someone on Twitter say that anyone with 500 quid (and ten nominating signatures) could put their name down and stand as 'The Brexit Candidate' to take votes off the Tories, if they wanted to.

I suspect the electoral commission might wade in. Didn't they get very upset when a "Literal Democrat" ran some time ago ?

Unnoticed during these GE goings-on, more businesses are suffering and cannot wait any longer for the politicians to get their shit together:

JPCampbellBiz@JP_Biz

One of Northern Ireland largest manufacturers, SDC Trailers, says it's starting redundancy consultations.

It's blaming Brexit uncertainty & other economic concerns which means customers are cutting back on capital investment.

Not yet clear how many posts are at risk.

Brexit: The long hard road to a future relationship

As pp said, even a totally inadequate Canada-type deal would take several years in transition, even if the Uk knew what it wanted

The EU is getting all its prep done for even 2 January negotiations

www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/1109/1089604-brexit-future-relationship/

Josh Halliday
@JoshHalliday
Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote.

I hope the good people of Hartlepool are unanimous with their Labour votes.

In other news, I think people have reached some kind of breaking point with the BBC.

The tweet below (concerning the footage of Johndon at the cenotaph this year being mixed with footage from 3 years ago) is going viral.

I do wonder what is going to happen to the BBC's reputation as a consequence of Brexit. What a mess.

www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-media-bias-labour-mainstream-press-lse-study-misrepresentation-we-cant-ignore-bias-a7144381.html

It's too late to for this to be talked about now isn't it.

But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement

I'm a political dunce compared to most on here, even with a 3 year learning curve.

But there's no way the Conservatives would leave the decision of whether to stand at all in a constituency up to the individual candidate? It's a party decision surely?

Either they will field another Conservative there, or there must be a behind the scenes agreement between BXP/Con in some constituencies surely ?

MShip Take good care. Best wishes

mship best wishes x

*Just for clarity I'm a remainer, but can't bear Corbyn so really struggling with who to vote for...g

So vote for your Labour MP then badger him (post election) to oust Corbyn!

PMSL - if Corbyn won a GE do you honestly think the party members, who’ve stood beside him through his piss poor performance in opposition up to now, would oust him then?!

If you can't get Remain without Labour maybe you should be asking yourself different questions.
Like
wtf do Labour stand for.
Why is a divisive character like Corbyn still leader.
What was the result in the 2016 referendum.
Did any Labour MPs vote to trigger A50.

Those kind of messed up horrible questions.

But there's no way the Conservatives would leave the decision of whether to stand at all in a constituency up to the individual candidate? It's a party decision surely?

Something the Tories liked to boast about (notice the past tense) was how local they were - part of what made them a "broad church". It also served to insulate them from a coup de tete type takeover.

However, as we have seen, Brexit has blow that wide open (although it's been slowly eroded over the years anyway) with Boris and chums imposing candidates and policies from on high. Something the Tories used to lambast Labour over as being a "soviet style" dictatorship.

All of this is being discussed against an assumption that Brexit is the one - the only - thing voters are going to be thinking about when they vote. I'm still thinking that isn't the case (for a variety of reasons that historians are welcome to discuss ad infinitum ...) and there will be some very odd results in December (if you're taking that view).

Incidentally, I can't see Donald Trump whooping with joy that it's taken a Chinese firm to rescue British Steel. Add that to the need to use Huawei in the UKs 5G programme, and it all makes for an interesting mix.

I'd also be curious as to what Jingye have been told about the UKs post Brexit relationships with (a) the EU and (b) the US.

They don't have to, Bear.

Labour aren't going to win a majority & he's said he'll leave if not.

So the upcoming Dep Leadership contest will lead into a vote for a new Leader.

he's said he'll leave if not.

Semantics I know but I dont think he has, it was McDonnell that said that, its likely he will though and hopefully either Long-Bailey (Wrong-Daily as the right call her which makes me chuckle), Clive Lewis or Pidcock, Id prefer Pidcock

just still no labour candidate here...is thst usial this close to an election?

....or the latest suggestion: a joint leader.

So the upcoming Dep Leadership contest will lead into a vote for a new Leader.

Didn't they say they're changing the rules about that ?