Westminstenders: The end of tribalism

[RedToothBrush]

There are signs that traditional party alignment might well have broken.

The Tories have split, labour are pretending they have not.

The pattern so far seems to be closely following the EU. This favours a Tory majority.

A long way to go.

Ah, Aaron Bastani, Corbyn’s No.1 Fan and a man who published a literal communist manifesto a few months ago (now 20% off):

www.versobooks.com/books/2757-fully-automated-luxury-communism

Of course, his version of communism is so fantastical that it makes the original look realistic...

Back to the GE, I’m not sure Labour’s cracking wheeze to have both a pro-Brexit and a pro-Remain leader after losing the election has been fully thought through: has Corbyn told us which one of those he’s going to be?

Best wishes, Mship 💐
I hope you can come back into a good place soon

CendrillonSings

Did you have a good day off yesterday? I noticed you werent on shift bet you couldnt wait to clock in this morning, shitposts wont post themselves amiright?

Take care MShip you'll be missed

Cendrillon it seems your party may have done a deal with Farage. How do you feel about that?

A no, or small majority Tory government might be the death knell for Brexit anyway. The second successive election that has failed to deliver a government capable of enacting Brexit is a clear message ...

We have to live in hope.... I would hope too that Johnson in going on his big ego trip manages to destroy the current incarnation of the Tory party.

Sorry to hear people are struggling. Personally I'm totally convinced that the GE is up for grabs, who knows what kind of shit is going to come out/happen in the next 4.5 weeks?

Can't say I'm loving it, but it doesn't yet seem time to worry too much, I think they all have everything to play for.

Faragit is pulling out his company party from contesting Conservative seats to ensure a BJ majority

Running scared of the Remain Alliance

Farage still proposiing to split the Leave vote in half the seats.

Bye for now, @MShip, hope you come back soon - it's been lovely having you here. 💐

Concentrating on contesting Labour seats to both split their vote and either let in a Conservative or even get in some of his franchises as MPs to "hold BJ to account".

I wonder if they will waste their deposits contest SNP held seats? Or can he recognise that he'd be flogging a dead horse?

MShip

Bloody hell. Just heard Farage speaking and he says the Brexit Party will not run any candidates in 317 Tory held seats. He's declaring a 'unilateral alliance' with the Tories, basically.

All the best TheMShip - I've appreciated having another Scot (who still lives in Scotland) on here even if we don't agree on everything Look after yourself

How's everyone feeling about BBC breakfast splicing in a Johnson at the cenotaph in 2016 and not using yesterdays performance?

Ooh that Farage decision is quite interesting here. That may put Labour at a higher chance than previously (next to none if they stood). Wonder if any of the tactical voting sites are being updated to reflect this or if they're waiting until everywhere is announced later this week?

it seems your party may have done a deal with Farage. How do you feel about that?

Bloody delighted. As far as I can tell Boris has made no concessions at all - Farage could see we were already squeezing his vote badly and didn’t want to be humiliated, so bowed to the inevitable. At the same time, BXP should draw off a lot of Labour voters in our target seats who feel abandoned by their old party but would never vote Conservative.

Be careful what you wish for when you get all excited about political alliances and tactical voting, because it’s a sword that cuts both ways...

JustAnotherPoster00

Did you have a good day off yesterday? I noticed you werent on shift bet you couldnt wait to clock in this morning, shitposts wont post themselves amiright?

Just, you post Corbyn fan-mail on here as if it were a full-time job, so you clearly haven’t noticed the greenhouse you’re throwing your stones out of is now but a small pile of broken glass...

Wonder how much Dom paid him?

Or should I say Dom's Russian pals.

Thecat ntbo, but enormous differences moving abroad depending on circs, e.g.

+Are you moving on your own / with a partner / with DC
+Are you nearing retirement or building a career
+If you need to work, can you find a job where English is an acceptable working language - if you don't speak the host language well
+Are you self-supporting with at least 3 months savings for both UK+furrin bills

I don't know what applies to you

I'm single, no DC, so it was very simple and cost me very little, both times.
Ah, the benefits of being responsible only for myself (now my mum is years gone)
Totally different if you have to consider school-age kids etc and / or you don't have a lot of savings

Moves:
My first contract in Germany back in the late 1980s, I just packed up the car with all my clothes etc and left all furniture in the house

My agent / headhunter supplied me with a hotel suite for 6 weeks, then I continued there for a further 6 weeks, which saw me to the end of the trial period and gave me time to find somewhere to rent longterm

• 6 weeks deposit and my agent supplied the reference

Then I sold my little house (v cheap Midlands area) and donated my furniture, which was all 2nd hand anyway (1st property)

When I fully emigrated literally a few days after the ref, I did much the same, except that a German friend drove for me, since I no longer can.
My furniture was 20 years old, so not worth bringing it over.
I bought a new bike in Germany - old was donated.

Healthcare:
I've had worldwide private insurance since 1990
German healthcare superb, same-day GP service, competely free choice of eye specialists etc

Contingency planning before the ref:
I had a pt job already lined up in Germany, to see me through to retirement next year
I'd also researched to find another hotel apprtment within cycling distance

Language:
English has always been acceptable in my tech field and since FOM it has often become the working language.
Not just because of other EU employess, but because of the significant number of employees now from India, S Korea, HK etc^
Of course, I became fluent in German years ago

I can’t really see how Farage’s move actually helps the Tories.... How many people planning to vote BXP in Tory seats are actually now going to swing behind the Tories - very few I’d imagine.

Those die-hards who were still planning to vote BXP in Tory seats after BJ has pandered so much to the Brexit cause aren’t particularly biddable. UKIP will more likely get a mini-bounce.

Rather it risks being seen as an informal pact between Tories and BXP that could put off some on the centre-fringe of the Tories for whom this may be one step too far and just too much to stomach.

At the same time, BXP should draw off a lot of Labour voters in our target seats who feel abandoned by their old party but would never vote Conservative.

By the same token, BXP would equally likely have taken Labour voters in seats in which the Tories have small majorities.

In reality, these traditional Labour voters won’t now vote Labour irrespective of whether a BXP stand. They just won’t vote.

I bet the real reason Nige is not standing candidates in every constituency in the country as promised is because his pyramid scheme has not had enough takers.

Nothing to do with helping the tories win (why would he - he doesn't like them, if he thought he could win himself - he wouldn't be doing this) or doing a deal with Boris (who probably hasn't agreed to this and would never publicly admit it if he did - they were very clear, no deals) which everyone knows will be completely meaningless once Boris gets what he wants.

It makes no sense to do this from a power grab move either. If Nigel steps aside his candidates then the tories are more likely to get a majority - i.e less likely to need propping up by another party. BXP has no power - they gave a majority to the tories and now they will be ridden over roughshod.

And if BXP fail to win any labour seats (UKIP never managed to) then BXP have no MPs at all ... still no power, no matter what balance there is in the HOC.
This is putting all his eggs in the basket of the tories only getting those 317 seats and no more - so requiring confidence and supply from someone - and BXP having the 10 MPs necessary to do the propping up. I'm no strategist - but that does not seem like a good strategy to be starting out with. That might be a result you would accept - but it shouldn't be what you are aiming for, especially as it requires such specific numbers for it tow work - there isn't much in the way of wiggle room. The best he can hope for is being the new DUP ... because the tories have treated them so well over the past two years. That will work well for them.

His company has failed to get the required number of appropriate candidates to stand in every constituency, he isn't make the money he hoped he would from this scheme - so he isn't standing the ones he has. The whole 'tory alliance' is an exercise in face saving. What it really is is Nigel failing to attract and stand the candidates he boasted he already had.

That's a positive way of looking at it Oakenbeach