Westministenders: Sub-Prime Minister at large

[BigChocFrenzy]

Our Sub-Prime Minister BJ is threatening a govt tantrum strike until he is allowed his Haribo GE on 12 December.

If MPs vote for a GE, he has promised them "more time" to debate the WAB,
but that would only be from 29 October to 7 November

• ridiculously inadequate for such complex legislation -

before Parliament is automatically dissolved for the 25 sitting days before a GE.

The GE debate starts Monday 2:30 pm in the HoC
Corbyn says he'll agree to a GE if BJ takes No Deal off the table

BUT wIth this WA,
No deal cannot 100% be taken off the table whilst the Tories are in office:

they could still No Deal after transition ends on 31 December 2020,
if they don't request a transition by July.

We don't know when the EU will give their decision on an extension, or what it will be:

The EU may decide only after the HoC vote
- in which case MPs would be voting "blindly"

Tusk, Merkel & most other leaders want to grant the Flextension until 31 January,
but Macron & a few others want to give a short extension of only 2-4 weeks, to pressure MPs to pass the WA in November

• in which case the GE would take place shortly after Brexit, which would be a gift to BJ.

A 12 December GE would also cause serious logistical problems for local council officials:

Apart from their poll station bookings clashing with Xmas bookings for church halls & schools,

they are legally required to send out all the polling cards based on the current electoral roll,
then at the GE, check names against the new electoral roll which must be updated on 1 December

The Rebel Alliance want a long extension, so they have time to add amendments to the WAB,
e.g. a CU, the Level Playing Field agreement in May's WA, maybe even a PV
So many may want to vote against a GE before that ..... but what does Corbyn want ?

BJ as PM could still change the date of any GE after he has agreed to it, if it suits him.

What does BJ want ?
Alice Cooper said it:

"I'm your top prime cut of meat, I'm your choice
I wanna be elected
I'm your yankee doodle dandy in a gold Rolls Royce
I wanna be elected
Kids want a savior, don't need a fake

I wanna be elected
We're all gonna rock to the rules that I make
I wanna be elected, elected, elected..."

m.youtube.com/watch?v=cSvy8HpxFxo

• Post edited to correct dates

What may be the least horrendous way out is to support the LDems and SNP in a GE before Brexit

Polls suggest that could reduce the Tory vote a lot, maybe even enough for another hung Parliament

I can see why a Tory - who fears Corbyn will interfer with private schools and private LL- would like a GE after Brexit - they could expect a landslide win

OK, so if there is a vote on a GE tomorrow and Corbyn doesn’t support it - then what happens?

What is the point of this question? Bear

A deal that will be scrutinised to the nth degree, and rightly so.

A deal that Johnson wanted to push through without any scrutiny.

But they’re voting on party lines and there’s some skeletons in that deal so it’s not likely to go through

and ...

What is the point of this question? Bear

I’m beginning to think I’ve slipped into some kind of parallel universe here

The point of the question is it’s very likely where we are going to be tomorrow

You have already slipped into an alternative universe Bear

Who is 'we'?

Proper time to go at the WAIB in parliament is what we really need. Either it's a good enough deal to get support or it's not. I would support a SO24 motion to timetable a proper debate. Caveat, of course, I don't know if that's possible!

I can see why a Tory - who fears Corbyn will interfer with private schools and private LL- would like a GE after Brexit - they could expect a landslide win

This is exactly what I mean about the failure to see things through anything other than their own eyes

The policies on private schools or private landlords won’t affect me in the slightest, I just think they are both ridiculous and impractical

But they don’t matter anyway because Corbyn makes Labour unelectable

Which means you’re stuck with the Tories

I think I'm becoming resigned to the worst.

placemats I can’t remember what ‘we’ you are referring to but probably the UK

In that situation the Tories and BXP are both so power hungry they could probably form a coalition and that’s hardly going to end well for Remainers is it

If we're playing alphabet soup, the same could have been said of the Tories and DUP in 2017.

And yet here we are with the DUP voting against the Brexit they thought they wanted.

And I still maintain that we are not going to see a slew of BXP seats. One would be impressive. More that 3 would be unprecedented. And beyond that we're in hat-eating territory.

If BXP can't muster more than a few hundred at local rallies around the country, then how are they going to top the 1,000,000 that travelled to London twice this year ?

BJ has got an ERG deal, that will allow No Deal on 3 Dec 2020
and then a Bonfire of Workers Rights etc afterwards

That is fucking up the country
Why help him do that ?

After the Tories complete their fuckup, Labour would be seen as collaborators and would suffer politically for many years
Like the Ldems over uni fees, only x 100

Better to refuse to join the Tories in fucking over the country and suffer a couple of years
than be unelectable for decades and leave no major party alternative then to those who oppose the Tories

They should go for a GE before brexit and reduce the Tory lead
If the Tories still win, then at least voters have only themselves to blame, for voting for what happens next

They should go for a GE before brexit and reduce the Tory lead

But that’s what BJ is proposing

How can that happen unless Corbyn supports the vote tomorrow?

@placemats

I’m no BJ fan... He has calculated that a quick timetable maximises his chance of passing the deal, though with every day that passes, the deal is able to be scrutinised more and more.

I’m also no great fan of the deal... But if we are to move on we need to leave. We can either do that before a GE, or after. Leaving before a deal will hand the Tories an election victory on a plate.

The Mp that was first elected to parliament in 1983, then resoundingly won to leadership elections, definitely unelectable

The policies on private schools or private landlords won’t affect me in the slightest, I just think they are both ridiculous and impractical

I think they are a great shibboleth though ...

I wonder how many shit things the Tories do I could dig up and post to absolutely no effect ?

My DF has a saying which I suspect would be better in it's dialect , but it's about some people being like eggs and getting thicker the more they are boiled ....

BJ has got an ERG deal, that will allow No Deal on 3 Dec 2020 and then a Bonfire of Workers Rights etc afterwards

The focus of any election before we leave will be on leaving... whether or not you think it should be the case, details of what leave will mean will be secondary.

The UK cannot leave before a deal. Johnson's deal has been already passed in Parliament for a second reading. Oaken

Are people deliberately not paying attention?

"This is exactly what I mean about the failure to see things through anything other than their own eyes"

No, that is exactly what you are doing

How is it in Labour's interests to give BJ a GE after Brexit, which would maximise the Tory vote ?

How is it in their interests to lose millions of Remainer votes by rolling over and giving BJ the Brexit he wants ?

• the specifically ERG type of Brexit that would heal his party, but wreck the lives of those who aren't privileged

Reports suggest that Corbyn is nowhere near as opposed to a GE as his MPs are, because they are nearly Remainers
and also that they wouldn't obey him anyway if he whipped them to vote for a GE

We saw how Labour suffered when they joined with Cameron on the Scottish Indie ref
How the Ldems suffered when they collaborated

Helping the Tories would just fuck up Labour for many years to come
It brings no benefit to Labour

Is there a three line Labour whip on the vote tomorrow Bear?

I can see why a Tory - who fears Corbyn will interfer with private schools and private LL- would like a GE after Brexit - they could expect a landslide win

For many people who are not natural Tories but want “Brexit done”, there will be no incentive to support them in a post Brexit election.... Many don’t particularly like BJ. People don’t tend to vote out of gratitude. A Tory landslide is less likely after Brexit is done imo

Placemats BJ's deal has NOT passed
If there is a GE before all readings, then the new Parliament would start again from the beginning, if they chose to continue with that WA

It is also still possible to leave with No Deal in October or November, without a GE.

It is not merely possible, but likely, that after Brexit we will crash out of transition with No Deal on 31 Dec 2020

"They should go for a GE before brexit and reduce the Tory lead
But that’s what BJ is proposing "

NO he isn't

He is proposing that the Opposition agree to pass all necessary WA / WAB legistlation by 7 Nov
so that the 12 December GE will be after Brexit

That's the whole point
and it's why he has rejected the SNP / LDem proposal for an earlier December GE which would be before Brexit

The UK cannot leave before a deal. Johnson's deal has been already passed in Parliament for a second reading. Are people deliberately not paying attention?

That’s why BJ should look to press home the advantage and get his deal done. I don’t agree with his GE tactics.