Westministenders: Sub-Prime Minister at large

[BigChocFrenzy]

Our Sub-Prime Minister BJ is threatening a govt tantrum strike until he is allowed his Haribo GE on 12 December.

If MPs vote for a GE, he has promised them "more time" to debate the WAB,
but that would only be from 29 October to 7 November

• ridiculously inadequate for such complex legislation -

before Parliament is automatically dissolved for the 25 sitting days before a GE.

The GE debate starts Monday 2:30 pm in the HoC
Corbyn says he'll agree to a GE if BJ takes No Deal off the table

BUT wIth this WA,
No deal cannot 100% be taken off the table whilst the Tories are in office:

they could still No Deal after transition ends on 31 December 2020,
if they don't request a transition by July.

We don't know when the EU will give their decision on an extension, or what it will be:

The EU may decide only after the HoC vote
- in which case MPs would be voting "blindly"

Tusk, Merkel & most other leaders want to grant the Flextension until 31 January,
but Macron & a few others want to give a short extension of only 2-4 weeks, to pressure MPs to pass the WA in November

• in which case the GE would take place shortly after Brexit, which would be a gift to BJ.

A 12 December GE would also cause serious logistical problems for local council officials:

Apart from their poll station bookings clashing with Xmas bookings for church halls & schools,

they are legally required to send out all the polling cards based on the current electoral roll,
then at the GE, check names against the new electoral roll which must be updated on 1 December

The Rebel Alliance want a long extension, so they have time to add amendments to the WAB,
e.g. a CU, the Level Playing Field agreement in May's WA, maybe even a PV
So many may want to vote against a GE before that ..... but what does Corbyn want ?

BJ as PM could still change the date of any GE after he has agreed to it, if it suits him.

What does BJ want ?
Alice Cooper said it:

"I'm your top prime cut of meat, I'm your choice
I wanna be elected
I'm your yankee doodle dandy in a gold Rolls Royce
I wanna be elected
Kids want a savior, don't need a fake

I wanna be elected
We're all gonna rock to the rules that I make
I wanna be elected, elected, elected..."

m.youtube.com/watch?v=cSvy8HpxFxo

• Post edited to correct dates

I didn't say it was passed per say. It was passed for a second reading. BCF. It has yet to reach the HOLs

"A Tory landslide is less likely after Brexit is done imo"

Your personal opinion conflicts with the results of many opinion polls that show the Tory vote would drop significantly if the GE is before Brexit

It's why BJ is demanding a GE after Brexit and refusing one before

His only aim is to get elected with a majority for a 5-year term
He wants a landslide, so he certainly wouldn't be demanding a date that makes it less likely

Placemats The WA was NOT passed Saturday 19.10

BJ and some Tories keep saying this, but it is a lie.
It was just nodded through and did not go to a division

That's why it couldn't be brought back last Monday

MPs are now demanding time to debate the WAB, which is its implementation legislation
but they are not debating the WA

He is proposing that the Opposition agree to pass all necessary WA / WAB legistlation by 7 Nov so that the 12 December GE will be after Brexit

But BJ knows that will be rejected due to crazy timetable. He wants the opposition to be seen as the ones scuppering his deal. If he genuinely wanted the deal done before the GE, he’d have given a longer period for bill to pass.

He’s against the LD/SNP timetable as,
firstly, from a political perspective he clearly can’t simply accept their plan, and secondly, it doesn’t give the opposition the opportunity to stop his deal passing.

Ludicrously late PMK

He wants the WA passed before the GE, without any amendments
AND
as soon as possible so Leave voters don't get angry that the 31 October deadline passed without his body ina ditch

All political analysts expect the Tories would have their best chance of a landslide in a GE shortly after Brexit has happened,
because of the huge differences the polls show in the Tory vote before / after Brexit and also after a long delay

Logistically, 12 December is the last chance for a GE before mid-February - which is after the end of the likely extension

He doesn't want to wait another 3.5 months in a zombie govt, being humiliated by the Opposition
and also he doesn't want to risk the WA / WAB being dragged out that long, with the consequent risk of an unplanned No Deal at an awkward time for him.

Oak As a Conservative voter what do you think BJ is up to???

From the outside it all seems a bit confusing and contrary?

(Understand if you don’t want to answer things can end up a bit feisty in the evenings on here )

Your personal opinion conflicts with the results of many opinion polls that show the Tory vote would drop significantly if the GE is before Brexit

Most people aren’t as politically focussed as those on here.... When asked if they’d vote
Tory if a deal is delayed, some will have
answered assuming that it must have been the Tories who have been to blame for that delay... However, in a GE before Brexit, I don’t think the Tories will generally end up being the ones to be blamed...

Just look how the Tories haven’t slumped in the polls now even though we’re now very likely to leave after 31 October, when a few weeks back polls showed the Tories being hit badly if this happened!

This is going round in circles.

I simply don’t understand what is to be gained from having such utter contempt for the Tories and anyone who has actively voted for them in the past whilst simultaneously being completely apathetic about the fact the oppositions lack of effectiveness is passively handing the Tories the next term

BCF, as you so often point out, the WA is not the deal. Even if that were voted through Labour could change what ‘Brexit’ actually looked liked if they actually won a GE on 9/12

The trouble is he can’t win on that date.

So what is possible?

Stewart Wood@StewartWood (Lab peer

One big reason for the #Brexit paralysis with no end we're in: everyone still thinks they can get their way.

No Dealers, soft Brexiteers, Norwayers, Canada Plusers, Remainers, 2nd Refers:
nothing is yet ruled out.

So no group has yet thrown their lot in with their 2nd preference.

The response to the few politicians who have moved from their 1st pref & shown readiness to compromise
won't encourage others to do the same.

While the Govt's rejection of proper Parliamentary scrutiny, that might produce a compromise outcome,^^
further incentivises all to dig in.

My bad BCF. Thanks for the explanation.

As a Conservative voter what do you think BJ is up to.

Firstly, I don’t always vote Tory, but if I’m anything, I’m closer to being a Gawke/Rudd/Stewart type of Tory, and am no fan of BJ.

BJ wants to blame the opposition for thwarting his attempts to deliver Brexit... his tactics are designed to do just this. There are swathes of people who just want Brexit over (and yes, I know it won’t all just go away after we leave, but at least we’ll be moving forwards) who will
be inclined to vote for BJ as the best hope of achieving this.

Bear What is not sensible is to give the Tories their biggest GE win, by letting them have it after Brexit

Why do you keep demanding that Labour choose the worst option for them, electorally?

Labour MPs would likely refuse to agree even if Corbyn whips them - so it's an impossible demand anyway.

Allowing BJ to Brexit before a GE means:

Millions of Labour Remainers voting for other parties
BXP voters returning to the Tories

==> A Tory landslide

==> A Tory govt choosing the hardest possible Brexit / No Deal on 31 Dec 2020 rolling back workers rights & the Welfare state etc

.... and Labour being blamed as collaborators for agreeing to Brexit without even a GE first

The alternatives are not as bad for Labour as that
If they fight for as long as possible, at least they retain their Remainer voters

What do I suggest:
A GE before Brexit

So no group has yet thrown their lot in with their 2nd preference.

Not true. Plenty of Tories, and some from Labour, who were remainers have thrown in their lot with a policy that we should respect the referendum and leave the EU, even though their first choice would be to Remain.

What do I suggest:
A GE before Brexit

If you class the WA passing as ‘Brexit’ then how is that going to be possible?

I simply don’t understand this obsession with wanting things that aren’t on offer

How is that option going to transpire?

Millions of Labour Remainers voting for other parties BXP voters returning to the Tories

If anything those Labour support will be higher as some of those lending their support to the LDs will come back into the fold once Brexit is done, strengthening Labour and reducing any Tory gains.

As for BXP supporters, as UKIP supporters did in 2017, they’ll largely line up behind the Tories in any pre-election referendum in closely fought seats. Many that don’t, won’t have been inclined to vote Tory anyway.

Sorry, had to go out!

bear problem is, I don't think this govt (and I use the term loosely) will go "crawling back".

I think they'd invoke martial law. CCA.

Leavers and tories will never accept their part in the whole shitshow so it could lead to the complete breakdown of our democratic society.

All in all, I'm pretty pessimistic about it all.

"There are swathes of people who just want Brexit over"

and there are millions who want Brexit stopped, or at least that in any Brexit workers rights, the NHS, the envionment be protected

That's millions of votes that Labour would lose if they cave in to such a dreadful WA,
far worse than May's

"as you so often point out, the WA is not the deal."

I kept saying that about May's WA

With her WA, there was a binding Level Playing Field floor
So even a Tory govt could not abolish current regulations on workers rights etc and go for a US FTA

Early this year, I wanted May's WA to pass, to avoid No Deal, but also to avoid facing an ERG WA at the last moment

Under this WA, a Tory govt - which is likely - can have its Bonfire of Regulations after 31 December
That's why nearly all the ERG vote for this deal, but wouldn't for May's deal
(ERG members who vote against BJ's deal are angry that the EU "won" on Ireland and that the UK will pay the exit bill)

And I agree with you re: corbyn bear
But I'll vote tactically and vote labour if I need to to keep the tories out.
It's the tories that created this disaster.
Labour have been utterly shit but they are not the architects of austerity.
The tories and the lib dems are the authors of that.

"I simply don’t understand this obsession with wanting things that aren’t on offer"

I don't understand this obsession with things that are not on offer from Labour

• that Labour should gift the Tories a landslide by pissing off millions of their own Remainer voters
• that Corbyn can somehow force a 90% Remainer PLP to allow a hurried Brexit without even the safeguards of May's WA

Why do you keep demanding that Labour cave in and not the Tory minority govt ?

In fact, I expect neither side to give in,
so we will wait and hope the EU will allow an extension for further dithering

Labour can survive a crash out caused by the Tories,
but can not survive voting for a cave in to a hard Brexit followed by a crash out on 31 Dec 2020

BCF I don’t understand most of that post (your formatting is always really odd - not sure if it’s an App thing)

If Corbyn votes against a GE tomorrow, what do you think will happen?

How is a GE before Brexit possible?

The only alternative I can see is the EU granting the 31/1/20 extension and the WA getting through before then and we move to the transition at whatever point that is

So no scope for a GE before Brexit there either

The WA has not passed any meaningful vote. An amended (Letwin) version that withheld approval was passed without an official vote (division) on Saturday 19th.

The WAIB passed second reading by 30 votes on Tuesday 22nd. Second reading means the HoC considers a bill worthy of debate and amendment. Immediately after this, the government proposed getting through the debate and amendment process in under three days with I believe the third reading vote proposed for either end of day Thursday 24th or the following Monday 28th. The govt lost that vote and has refused to compromise on a longer debate and amendment period.

The Queen's Speech passed later in the week but it doesn't really matter because the govt hasn't the votes to implement anything in it.

The govt is now preparing a vote under the FTPA needing 2/3 majority for Monday 29th. The SNP and Lib Dems have proposed an alternate motion requiring only a simple majority but fixing the election date for 9 Dec. Labour is waffling.

The EU is waiting to see what happens Monday before selecting an extension date. Macron favours a very short two weeks, enough to get a WAIB through UK Parliament and approved by rupiah European Parliament. Most others, including Ireland last I saw, appear to favour the 3 months requested under the Benn act which is mandatory for the UK govt to accept.

It's a game of chicken and bluffing now.