Westministenders: Sub-Prime Minister at large

[BigChocFrenzy]

Our Sub-Prime Minister BJ is threatening a govt tantrum strike until he is allowed his Haribo GE on 12 December.

If MPs vote for a GE, he has promised them "more time" to debate the WAB,
but that would only be from 29 October to 7 November

• ridiculously inadequate for such complex legislation -

before Parliament is automatically dissolved for the 25 sitting days before a GE.

The GE debate starts Monday 2:30 pm in the HoC
Corbyn says he'll agree to a GE if BJ takes No Deal off the table

BUT wIth this WA,
No deal cannot 100% be taken off the table whilst the Tories are in office:

they could still No Deal after transition ends on 31 December 2020,
if they don't request a transition by July.

We don't know when the EU will give their decision on an extension, or what it will be:

The EU may decide only after the HoC vote
- in which case MPs would be voting "blindly"

Tusk, Merkel & most other leaders want to grant the Flextension until 31 January,
but Macron & a few others want to give a short extension of only 2-4 weeks, to pressure MPs to pass the WA in November

• in which case the GE would take place shortly after Brexit, which would be a gift to BJ.

A 12 December GE would also cause serious logistical problems for local council officials:

Apart from their poll station bookings clashing with Xmas bookings for church halls & schools,

they are legally required to send out all the polling cards based on the current electoral roll,
then at the GE, check names against the new electoral roll which must be updated on 1 December

The Rebel Alliance want a long extension, so they have time to add amendments to the WAB,
e.g. a CU, the Level Playing Field agreement in May's WA, maybe even a PV
So many may want to vote against a GE before that ..... but what does Corbyn want ?

BJ as PM could still change the date of any GE after he has agreed to it, if it suits him.

What does BJ want ?
Alice Cooper said it:

"I'm your top prime cut of meat, I'm your choice
I wanna be elected
I'm your yankee doodle dandy in a gold Rolls Royce
I wanna be elected
Kids want a savior, don't need a fake

I wanna be elected
We're all gonna rock to the rules that I make
I wanna be elected, elected, elected..."

m.youtube.com/watch?v=cSvy8HpxFxo

• Post edited to correct dates

Right so data tables from Opinium are in so here we go.....

Con. 40%
Lab. 24%
Lib. 15%
BXP. 10%
OTH 10%

^ 972 respondents from an original group of 2001. The 972 are 53% male, 68% over 45, 31% retired, 44% voted Tory 2017, 35% are described as ‘diehard’ leavers. (85% of the Tory voters were leavers)

Factoring in the ‘Don’t Knows’ with Opinium takes a bit of time sifting through the tables but being as ruthless as YouGov and lumping all the don’t knows and won’t votes gives,

DK/WV 41%
Con. 29%
Lab. 21%
Lib. 12%
BXP. 9%
OTH 9%

I haven’t got time to sort the Don’t knows from the won’t votes or work out gender and age balance of them I will do that tomorrow for anyone interested.

I wonder if Johnson has his own polling going on - or is he relying on headline polls like this?

Get over Corbyn. As the Tory party has well and truly demonstrated over the last decade, it's not the leader who will bring about a win.

Corbyn is the reason the Labour Party can’t win an election and thus the reason the Tory party will win.

With a PM like we have any opposition should be annihilating him in the polls but no, BJ and the Tories are miles ahead

I can't see the don't knows. I can't see any weightings.

It’s a ball ache you have to sift through half a dozen tables then work it out from there. No idea about weighting not mentioned but it was found in 2017 election unweighted data was actually more accurate.

I wonder if Johnson has his own polling going on - or is he relying on headline polls like this?

There was a report in DM (so won’t link) that private polling was not showing the Conservatives what they were hoping for as it’s the DM I took with a large pinch of salt.

Pp doesn’t care about the deaths due to austerity, the same pp is unlikely to give a shit about that either but don’t forget scary ineffectual Corbyn

just I have asked you before to stop making this so personal.

If you honestly believe I voted Tory specifically to make your life difficult I can’t change that

If you really don’t understand that for many people, choosing who to vote for is not so much a positive choice as much as a least worst option then again, I can’t convince you differently

But at some point you will need to accept the reason the Tories are in the lead and will continue to be so is because too many people think Labour is a worse option and that’s mainly because of your beloved Corbyn

How will people dying from a lack of medication, inflicted on them by the vote of 17.4 million people, help repair the damage?

Because hopefully the immediate shock of the realities of no deal will mean we back track very quickly and sort things out before anyone dies

People will die bear. The suffering will be immense.

That's certain. And perhaps why the parties have not no dealed yet?

It's political suicide.

Justa Can I please ask you to stop being so personal and attacking towards other posters.

I'm sorry to single you out - but I think I have to say something.

This thread is, frankly, where I come to escape the vitriol on Twitter and - sadly - in real life.

Yes, I have been on the receiving end of most of the accusations you make against other posters. And friends and fellow Labour Party people have received worse.

None of it is true. All of it feels hurtful, dehumanising and abusive.

I know it's going to mark me out as a wet but, frankly, I find it triggering.

It's going to make me leave this thread - and I'll miss it.

Goodness knows how it is making other people feel.

It's not words on a screen. We're real people, with all sorts of pressures and fragilities.

If you wouldn't say it to a friend/colleague/child, you probably shouldn't say it here.

The positive way of saying this is that your words are read, and have an effect. Isn't it worth pausing to see if that effect is good and adds to the sum of good and useful in this world?

MN is great, in that we do take time to read and communicate. It's not just the snarky shouting and exchange of put-downs you get on Twitter, say.

You are such a welcome voice here. It's interesting to read what you say. But please, could you think about not slipping into the Twitter-style meanness. It's so easy to do - but so damaging of a valuable resource.

So No Deal IS a feasible threat - or they wouldn't worry about being blamed for it

It’s not a credible threat from our side

I actually think BJ would love it if the EU said no to an extension and forced no deal because he could blame them entirely

What he can’t do is push the button by his own choice

Looking at Table V003

1566 might vote
Of those:

Conservative 31%
Labour 21%
Lib Dem 12%
Brexit 9%

Don't know 16%
Conservative Remainers / Labour Remainers and Labour Leavers - look to be the biggest group undecided yet

Fascinating

I actually think no deal is the only way to begin to repair the damage now but I still don’t think BJ will push the button on it as he knows how damaging it will be

Well that makes no sense

The fact that he did all his willy waving and still went all out to get a deal is exactly why I don’t think no deal is a credible threat

He certainly did not go all out to get a deal. He wasted endless time blustering and trying to force and threaten then eventually 'negotiated' a deal he knew would be unacceptable to the DUP and rebels

arse I agree it doesn’t make much sense! I was actually just about to post exactly that.

It’s very odd.

I don’t believe we will end up with no deal because of how damaging that would be but I think anything else is going to be damaging in so many other ways

Basically I don’t think there’s much to look forward to on the Brexit / political / economic front for a long time

Thank you cat

I’m pretty thick skinned but I’m getting very tired of just making such personal attacks on me and implying her situation is specifically my fault and that I actively chose for that to be the case

Millions of people have and will continue to vote Tory, you can’t just assume they all don’t give a shit about anyone else. They just don’t like the alternative any better.

I still don't understand Bear. No deal will be damaging all round - if it's damaging economically then it's damaging socially and the anger and divisions will become a hundred times more toxic when people see their lives affected.

I know Bozo knows this but I don't have any faith that he wouldn't go for it given the chance and worry about the mess later - his thinking really seems that puerile and irresponsible.

The thing with polls and voting intention, how are people canvassed ? In the street , on the phone, online ? how does it work ?

As cheaply as possible. Which tends to over-emphasise the easy to get results (mainly Tory) and diminish the harder to get results (Labour/LibDem).

bear I do understand your point. Honestly. But tory voters who say these things forget that the cumulative effect of people voting tory - for whatever reason - has caused austerity and Brexit.
Misery and poverty for millions, most of them children.
The underfunding of education and nhs.
If any of the above ^ affect you or those you love its incredibly hard to hear tory voters insist its "not what they voted for"
Yes, it IS
It is absolutely what they said they would do in their manifesto. The horrendous "citizens of nowhere" viewpoint.
The Tories are now a far right sect. They are unrecognisable from the party of thatcher, clarke, heseltine...
It's none of my business who you vote for but to keep dismissing those on this thread who are enduring horrific hardship and misery and who are desperately worried about life saving meds for their family as a direct result of your vote and those who voted tory alongside you then you need to understand why they feel bitter towards you and other tory voters and show some compassion and empathy.
I don't really know what else to say.
I dont agree with nastiness but fgs, there are people on this thread who are now sourcing meds from india due to the tory wankfest that is Brexit.
Things are SO shit for SO many.
3.5 years and its just getting worse and worse.
Tempers fray. People are tired. I know I am

dark all of this ‘parliament against the people’ stuff is damaging, just in a slower way

Plus, the WA by definition has to lead to a worse deal than we have now and there will be never ending rumblings about the fact that that is the fault of the EU / Remainers / politicians (delete as appropriate), it’s just going to drag on indefinitely

Such a mess.

Such a bloody mess.

Oh, my hospital appt for tomorrow has been cancelled. Again

Such a bloody mess.

I think that pretty much sums it up

I used pp Bear so as not to target you specifically, shall I stay quiet on how austerity has fucked my life up? Now you’re a No Dealer talk about pile on the pressure on those that don’t have the means and the personal strength to survive another 5 years of Tory rule after No Deal because I certainly don’t I’ve hit my limit knowing I have another WCA coming in a few months

Cat I have and will continue to say similar things to people in RL but because of your request and out of request I won’t post in response to Bears posts, I have no wish to make an even more stressful time of an already shitty situation we all find ourselves in, my heart dealt apologies cat the thread without you would be a different place and I’d hate to think I caused that to happen

*respect

The horrendous "citizens of nowhere" viewpoint. The Tories are now a far right sect. They are unrecognisable from the party of thatcher, clarke, heseltine

I can’t argue with that, hence I haven’t voted for them since 2015

But I now am politically homeless as I will not vote for Corbyn and a party with ridiculous policies like banning private schools and forcing private landlords to sell to tenants, not least because they would never actually work - they’re just headline grabbers

I used pp Bear so as not to target you specifically

That makes no difference - it’s clearly about me.

And even if it wasn’t, what you are saying is upsetting and unfounded to whoever it is aimed at.