Westministenders: Sub-Prime Minister at large

[BigChocFrenzy]

Our Sub-Prime Minister BJ is threatening a govt tantrum strike until he is allowed his Haribo GE on 12 December.

If MPs vote for a GE, he has promised them "more time" to debate the WAB,
but that would only be from 29 October to 7 November

• ridiculously inadequate for such complex legislation -

before Parliament is automatically dissolved for the 25 sitting days before a GE.

The GE debate starts Monday 2:30 pm in the HoC
Corbyn says he'll agree to a GE if BJ takes No Deal off the table

BUT wIth this WA,
No deal cannot 100% be taken off the table whilst the Tories are in office:

they could still No Deal after transition ends on 31 December 2020,
if they don't request a transition by July.

We don't know when the EU will give their decision on an extension, or what it will be:

The EU may decide only after the HoC vote
- in which case MPs would be voting "blindly"

Tusk, Merkel & most other leaders want to grant the Flextension until 31 January,
but Macron & a few others want to give a short extension of only 2-4 weeks, to pressure MPs to pass the WA in November

• in which case the GE would take place shortly after Brexit, which would be a gift to BJ.

A 12 December GE would also cause serious logistical problems for local council officials:

Apart from their poll station bookings clashing with Xmas bookings for church halls & schools,

they are legally required to send out all the polling cards based on the current electoral roll,
then at the GE, check names against the new electoral roll which must be updated on 1 December

The Rebel Alliance want a long extension, so they have time to add amendments to the WAB,
e.g. a CU, the Level Playing Field agreement in May's WA, maybe even a PV
So many may want to vote against a GE before that ..... but what does Corbyn want ?

BJ as PM could still change the date of any GE after he has agreed to it, if it suits him.

What does BJ want ?
Alice Cooper said it:

"I'm your top prime cut of meat, I'm your choice
I wanna be elected
I'm your yankee doodle dandy in a gold Rolls Royce
I wanna be elected
Kids want a savior, don't need a fake

I wanna be elected
We're all gonna rock to the rules that I make
I wanna be elected, elected, elected..."

m.youtube.com/watch?v=cSvy8HpxFxo

• Post edited to correct dates

No deal isn’t a credible threat anyway - we could have done it before and haven’t.

It doesn’t need to be taken off the table regardless of the fact it can’t be anyway.

I can’t see how it is anything other than Corbyns latest tactic to avoid stepping up to the plate.

He can’t keep saying he doesn’t want the GE he’s been asking for every time he’s spoken about Brexit so he’s trying this to divert from it because he knows he won’t win a GE

I really can’t see how that can be defended

"So then BCF if the legally binding part of the waib won't be changed as the EU will not reopen it again AND any other amendments can be easily overturned by the new parliament, there really are limited options aren't there.^"

The one chance - and it is a very small one - is if Labour win a GE before Brexit, or - less unlikely - can form a minority govt with SNP & LDem support

If the majority looks stable enough for a 5-year term,^
then the EU might agree to a v long extension to negotiate a WA that creates a 3rd EEA pillar for us, keeping us in the SM, guaranteeing FOM & with a PD about a Customs arrangement

• and of course, with an NI backstop, just in case the future negotiations don't lead to "frictionless" trade

The one chance - and it is a very small one - is if Labour win a GE before Brexit

But that’s not going to happen because of Corbyn

or - less unlikely - can form a minority govt with SNP & LDem support

The former just won’t happen and the latter won’t because of Corbyn too

Jo Swinson has specifically said she wouldn’t enter a coalition with a Corbyn or Johnson, implying if they weren’t the leaders it would be an option

The fact that ruins the Lib Dems credibility is beside the point

"No deal isn’t a credible threat anyway - we could have done it before and haven’t. .... I really can’t see how that can be defended"

The ONLY reasons No Deal is v unlikely in this Parliament are that the Tories are a minority govt
AND that there are such a large number of rebellious ex-Tories who joined the Rebel Alliance.

A large number of other Tories would probably accept No Deal rather than cave into the EU on the Level Playing Field during later negotiations and not be able to do their Bonfire of Regulations etc

After a GE, with the rebels kicked out, many other moderates quitting / retiring and being replaced by very hardline Brexiters,
the Tory Parliamentary party will look v different

The ERG want No Deal - that's why so many of them are prepared to vote for this WA, which allows it in 2021

The moderates will struggle to be effective - they will face severe intimidation if they try to resist a v hard Brexit.
Those prepared to sacrifice their career to prevent No Deal would already have done so by joining the rebels.

What isn't defensible is BJ refusing a GE before Brexit

Ah. I had missed (or not understood) that the legally binding bit couldn't be changed.

It looks like the only (tiny) hope is a GE then.

Corbyn has been an inadequate & ineffective leader of the Opposition
BUT

• and I will keep posting this whenever anyone tries to lay the main blame elsewhere -

Brexit is 100% the Tories's fault,
created to solve their internal party problems and then fucked up for 3 years
because they are ignorant, arrogant fuckers without a sane plan

It continues to be the FUCKING Tories fault.

They won't admit it and Revoke

• which is actually the only way to end this: it wouldn't end if the Opposition could somehow unite & Revoke or even if they later won a GE and held a PV to do so

This monster was created by the Tories and only they could kill it

No deal isn’t a credible threat anyway - we could have done it before and haven’t

You think because it has been prevented before that makes no deal not credible? That's ridiculously complacent and thank god mp's don't buy that.

If Johnson hadn't spent so much time waving his over-used willy around insisting we would go out deal or no deal there might be some grounds for taking your view but now there is zero trust and every reason to spend a good long time looking before leaping into a GE.

I appreciate I may be hard if thinking here but....are the Government actually saying no to the 9th of December because there won’t be time to pass the WAB. (That he claims can be debated in 2 days) That would be the same WAB that he pulled in a fit of pique earlier in the week. The same WAB that we have just lost two debating days over due to his faffing about ??

It makes zero sense....

and I will keep posting this whenever anyone tries to lay the main blame elsewhere

It’s not about blame for what has already happened, it’s about looking at what is possible right now and Labour winning a GE under Corbyn isn’t going to happen

If Johnson hadn't spent so much time waving his over-used willy around insisting we would go out deal or no deal there might be some grounds for taking your view

I’m confused?

The fact that he did all his willy waving and still went all out to get a deal is exactly why I don’t think no deal is a credible threat

That's what I heard, basil - BJ would refuse a GE that would be before Brexit,
OR
that requires a guarantee that we won't have No Deal on 31 Dec 2020

afaik, his idea for the GE is that the Opposition promise to let the WA & WAIB be passed in time,
or he could of course No Deal if they haven't passed by the time Parliament is dissolved for the GE

• the effects of ND wouldn't be significant by 12 December, so it wouldn't stop his probable landslide

Then he can ND on 31 Dec 2020 - which is what he has promised the ERG, to persuade them to vote for this WA.

"why I don’t think no deal is a credible threat"

If the EU agreed with you, then they'd refuse any extension - to force a Revoke
But they don't, so they won't

Macron & some others are pressuring MPs to pass the WA, to prevent No Deal

The opinion, in Germany at least, is that No Deal is possible,
even if only as a result of yet another godawful Tory miscalculation
i.e. an "accidental" No Deal

but more likely because BJ would rather No Deal than have the ERG tear apart the Tory party - and tear him down too - if it looks like a future No Deal is being prevented

The ERG only support this WA / WAB - in its current form - because they can force No Deal on 31 Dec 2020

If the EU agreed with you, then they'd refuse any extension - to force a Revoke But they don't, so they won't

As I said above, the EU don’t want to force a situation where they are responsible for no deal so they won’t do the above.

I’ve said many times, I actually think no deal is the only way to begin to repair the damage now but I still don’t think BJ will push the button on it as he knows how damaging it will be

So although No Deal is v v unlikely in October or November,
it is quite possible on 31 Dec 2020

There is insufficient time in transition to negotiate an FTA with the EU - and have it approved by 38 national & regional Parliaments

Even 3 years would be pushing it, especially given how long it's taken to get a WA
and the ERG would fiercely oppose any attempt to rob them of their Bonfire of the Regulations

I actually think no deal is the only way to begin to repair the damage now

How will people dying from a lack of medication, inflicted on them by the vote of 17.4 million people, help repair the damage?

"but I still don’t think BJ will push the button on it as he knows how damaging it will be"

BJ will always prioritise preventing damage to the Tory party & his leadership - which the ERG would cause if thwarted - over preventing damage to the country

He will also prioritise winning a 5-year term as PM over all else
After he has had his fun and leaves office, it's not just "Fuck business" - it'll be "FUK" and "Fuck the Tory party" too:

"Après moi, le déluge"

"the EU don’t want to force a situation where they are responsible for no deal"

So No Deal IS a feasible threat - or they wouldn't worry about being blamed for it

How will people dying from a lack of medication, inflicted on them by the vote of 17.4 million people, help repair the damage

Pp doesn’t care about the deaths due to austerity, the same pp is unlikely to give a shit about that either but don’t forget scary ineffectual Corbyn ooooo 👻

Is it me - or can someone tell me how many people this poll was based on?

They say 2000 people.
The data table says 972.

www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-25th-october-2019/

I can't see the don't knows. I can't see any weightings.

It’s not about blame for what has already happened, it’s about looking at what is possible right now and Labour winning a GE under Corbyn isn’t going to happen

But you are laying down the blame on Corbyn. And always have done throughout this thread.

Get over Corbyn. As the Tory party has well and truly demonstrated over the last decade, it's not the leader who will bring about a win.

My post was to Bear

What is interesting from that: (even thought the don't knows aren't there)

1/3 of Conservative Remainers are going to vote Lib Dem
1/2 of Labour Leavers are going to vote Labour, whilst 1/4 are going to vote Brexit Party

Labour Remainers look about 70% still Labour, 20% Lib Dem and the rest Green

It's still older people who are Conservative voters
North looks still quite Labour ish

So things aren't as clear cut as a simple % reveals

Also interesting to look at the Brexit position

Diehard and Concerned Remainers are equally split between Labour and Lib Dem

Diehard and Concerned Leavers are split between Conservative and Brexit parties.

The persuadable groups - but there aren't many of those - seem equally split between the 3 major parties.

Interesting to drill down.