Westministenders: Sub-Prime Minister at large

[BigChocFrenzy]

Our Sub-Prime Minister BJ is threatening a govt tantrum strike until he is allowed his Haribo GE on 12 December.

If MPs vote for a GE, he has promised them "more time" to debate the WAB,
but that would only be from 29 October to 7 November

• ridiculously inadequate for such complex legislation -

before Parliament is automatically dissolved for the 25 sitting days before a GE.

The GE debate starts Monday 2:30 pm in the HoC
Corbyn says he'll agree to a GE if BJ takes No Deal off the table

BUT wIth this WA,
No deal cannot 100% be taken off the table whilst the Tories are in office:

they could still No Deal after transition ends on 31 December 2020,
if they don't request a transition by July.

We don't know when the EU will give their decision on an extension, or what it will be:

The EU may decide only after the HoC vote
- in which case MPs would be voting "blindly"

Tusk, Merkel & most other leaders want to grant the Flextension until 31 January,
but Macron & a few others want to give a short extension of only 2-4 weeks, to pressure MPs to pass the WA in November

• in which case the GE would take place shortly after Brexit, which would be a gift to BJ.

A 12 December GE would also cause serious logistical problems for local council officials:

Apart from their poll station bookings clashing with Xmas bookings for church halls & schools,

they are legally required to send out all the polling cards based on the current electoral roll,
then at the GE, check names against the new electoral roll which must be updated on 1 December

The Rebel Alliance want a long extension, so they have time to add amendments to the WAB,
e.g. a CU, the Level Playing Field agreement in May's WA, maybe even a PV
So many may want to vote against a GE before that ..... but what does Corbyn want ?

BJ as PM could still change the date of any GE after he has agreed to it, if it suits him.

What does BJ want ?
Alice Cooper said it:

"I'm your top prime cut of meat, I'm your choice
I wanna be elected
I'm your yankee doodle dandy in a gold Rolls Royce
I wanna be elected
Kids want a savior, don't need a fake

I wanna be elected
We're all gonna rock to the rules that I make
I wanna be elected, elected, elected..."

m.youtube.com/watch?v=cSvy8HpxFxo

• Post edited to correct dates

It matters not one bit what you ‘like’ to happen

Could you please explain how it is technically possible to take no deal off the table

This is what people are failing to understand about the actual reality of the situation. This is WAY beyond what we'd like, and ALL about what is actually possible / has the numbers for in Parliament.

How the fuck would I know Bear, I’m certainly not within the top 20 of intelligent posters here and just because I don’t know what that route could be doesn’t mean there isn’t one

I care little if you think I insult you or you find it tedious, every time my scrounging self has to attend a WCA and be insulted and degraded means you’ve already robbed me of my dignity so like Im meant to give a fuck about your ‘feelz’

just please stop making this so personal with me - unless you are so rude to every other person who’s ever voted Tory, I suggest you wind it in a bit with me

I asked how it was possible to take no deal off the table.

You don’t know - that’s all that needs to be said

And it proves my point about there being no value in wishing for things that aren’t actually possible

There is no point in Labour insisting no deal is taken off the table before agreeing to a GE if it can’t technically be done - that’s just more delay and divert tactics

The only way a crash out can be avoided is a positive choice on an alternative. Pick a transition arrangement (let's not forget this is just a stop-gap: fuck knows how bad it's going to be with actual trade negotiations) or else revoke.

I think if the EU offered to press pause on the entire debacle for a few years, a lot of MPs would react with relief.

"trying to get the WA through with amendments (workers rights back in the legally binding bit, maybe a customs union, "

Sadly not possible.
The HoC can NOT modify the legally binding bit of an international treaty - the EU would have to agree and no signs that they would accept the dealy to do this

Anything not in the binding international treaty bit can be repealed by the Tories as soon as they win a GE and go all out for their US FTA

"the Monday election is to just move it a bit further away from Christmas."
No, the reason for making it those few days earlier is to make it impossible to pass the WA & WAIB beforehand (the rebels can delay it)
i.e. to ensure that the GE takes place BEFORE any GE

"Government say no, apparently."

For the same reason that some on the centre & left want it:

BJ would do much better in a GE after Brexit than before

Before Brexit, it is more likely that Farage can attract votes from the significiant number of fanatical Tory Brexiters - those who say they'd destroy their own party and the UK if that was necessary for Brexit

But a transition arrangement can still end in no deal. The can is just further down the road

The EU has voted to scrap daylight savings time apparently. Which means that if it comes into force, Ireland will end up on a different time to the UK post Brexit for half the year.

I’m disappointed with the vote to scrap it - I like the clocks going back/forward. At least leaving will mean we can choose to ignore it if we want to - a small positive but a positive nonetheless.

Macron wouldn't be "interfering" in a UK GE
He has aquiesced, along with the rest of the EU, to 2 extensions already

At this stage, he would just putting the interests of France first, which as leader he is expected to do.

This continual delay

• with businesses prepping for a Brexit date and then having to abandon that and prep for the next - is destabilising both for business and in some countries, politically - populists may claim that a country can't leave the EU. (any country can if they decide what they want)

More likely, he just wants to ensure No Deal doesn't happen before 2021
and in particular if it does happen later, to ensure that the EU doesn't have the horrendous political problem of requiring a hard border in Ireland
The WA in practical terms permanently protects Ireland / the EU from that border nightmare

No, the reason for making it those few days earlier is to make it impossible to pass the WA & WAIB beforehand (the rebels can delay it) i.e. to ensure that the GE takes place BEFORE.

That's not going to happen anyway as they won't agree to 5 sitting days any more than they would 3.

It's been obvious for months, years even that the numbers in the House of Commons weren't there for a PV. Why are the Lib Dems/SNP only saying this now ? How on earth are people able to understand what politicians (from all parties) want or believe when they can just completely flip their views/policies when it suits. No wonder so many people feel completely disillusioned with the lot of them.

So then BCF if the legally binding part of the waib won't be changed as the EU will not reopen it again AND any other amendments can be easily overturned by the new parliament, there really are limited options aren't there.

The only sensible thing to do at this point is revoke. But they can't even agree on that. They're so far apart with what they want that there will never be agreement.

Might as well bring TM's WA back. Fuck it. At least that's got the protections in it.

Is there a way Theresa May's WA can be brought back ? What happenend to the Kinnock amendment to bring it back ? I would be relieved if this got through !

I dunno. It's already agreed by the EU though, so I don't see why not. It'd save them a job.

What happens tomorrow if a GE isn’t agreed? Do the EU revert to a short extension?

What happens tomorrow if a GE isn’t agreed? Do the EU revert to a short extension?

Only if Macron agrees. If he doesn't (and Boris's deal isn't voted through either) then we could be out on the 31st with no deal!

There’s not much chance of that happening though is there?

The EU aren’t going to get themselves into a position where they can be blamed for no deal.

They’d give us a short extension as a minimum to avoid that

I thought if anything other than 31st Jan is offered, it needs to come back to parliament for another vote

That’s my understanding too trolley.

I’m just pretty sure the EU push that back rather than force no deal on Thursday

In fact, I think Macron is hanging out to see if we can make a fucking decision but I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes with 31st Jan in the end, even without a GE - if only to piss BJ off

There’s not much chance of that happening though is there?

I don't know - he blocked the decision on Friday, didn't he? And if there's yet more dithering on Monday then he may do it again. I think he's sick of us and who can blame him?

Are MPs 100% definitely going to be voting tomorrow on whether to have a GE?

Not sure - I’ve read that BJ might pull the vote because he knows it won’t pass.

Everything is such a bloody joke ATM.

The way to take No Deal off the table is to say that if by the end of the transition period there is no deal agreed then we remain.

If we can't agree how to leave then we stay. It's a simple as that.

We have to reapply during transition. There is no revoke / remain once we've left. The only chance for that is now.

But that’s not going to happen is it kitten because it effectively forces us to stay, not to mention the outcry about ‘democracy’

It’s another ‘like to happen’ rather than likely to happen