Westministenders: Sub-Prime Minister at large

[BigChocFrenzy]

Our Sub-Prime Minister BJ is threatening a govt tantrum strike until he is allowed his Haribo GE on 12 December.

If MPs vote for a GE, he has promised them "more time" to debate the WAB,
but that would only be from 29 October to 7 November

• ridiculously inadequate for such complex legislation -

before Parliament is automatically dissolved for the 25 sitting days before a GE.

The GE debate starts Monday 2:30 pm in the HoC
Corbyn says he'll agree to a GE if BJ takes No Deal off the table

BUT wIth this WA,
No deal cannot 100% be taken off the table whilst the Tories are in office:

they could still No Deal after transition ends on 31 December 2020,
if they don't request a transition by July.

We don't know when the EU will give their decision on an extension, or what it will be:

The EU may decide only after the HoC vote
- in which case MPs would be voting "blindly"

Tusk, Merkel & most other leaders want to grant the Flextension until 31 January,
but Macron & a few others want to give a short extension of only 2-4 weeks, to pressure MPs to pass the WA in November

• in which case the GE would take place shortly after Brexit, which would be a gift to BJ.

A 12 December GE would also cause serious logistical problems for local council officials:

Apart from their poll station bookings clashing with Xmas bookings for church halls & schools,

they are legally required to send out all the polling cards based on the current electoral roll,
then at the GE, check names against the new electoral roll which must be updated on 1 December

The Rebel Alliance want a long extension, so they have time to add amendments to the WAB,
e.g. a CU, the Level Playing Field agreement in May's WA, maybe even a PV
So many may want to vote against a GE before that ..... but what does Corbyn want ?

BJ as PM could still change the date of any GE after he has agreed to it, if it suits him.

What does BJ want ?
Alice Cooper said it:

"I'm your top prime cut of meat, I'm your choice
I wanna be elected
I'm your yankee doodle dandy in a gold Rolls Royce
I wanna be elected
Kids want a savior, don't need a fake

I wanna be elected
We're all gonna rock to the rules that I make
I wanna be elected, elected, elected..."

m.youtube.com/watch?v=cSvy8HpxFxo

• Post edited to correct dates

listening That's if Macron can be convinced that it is unfair to prevent the Uk having a GE before Brexit
AND
that a new Labour / coalition govt won't desperately / insanely try to renegotiate

The EU could say that the UK can negotiate a much closer trade deal if it wants, but that the WA stands

That date would require the HoC to pass both the WA and WAB before Parliament is dissolved on 7 November,
i.e. almost no debate

On Sky news Macron threatening to veto extension. That's all I need

Election Maps UKK@ElectionMapsUK*

Our spreadsheet suggests that
there is NO MAJORITY for a new referendum on EU membership in this current parliament:

For: 294
Against: 325
Unclear: 16

But out of the current parliament, at least 41 MPs (including the speaker) have said they are standing down
www.theparliamentaryreview.co.uk/news/general-election-the-mps-standing-down
(that list does not include Chris Chope who is definitely going)

so if a GE is allowed, the next parliament could look rather different

so if the GE vote goes through on Monday, the EU could have a rather different gang to be voting afterwards

ailovaa@AVMikhailova*

NEW:
'One Nation' Tory MPs have told the Chief Whip they will vote against Boris Johnson's Dec 12 election on Monday

They held a private meeting with the whips on Thursday, and discussions continued today.
'At least 20' expected not to support election

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/25/tory-mps-warn-boris-johnson-will-not-support-december-election/amp/?

On Sky news Macron threatening to veto extension.

I can hardly blame him ....... they told us not to waste the time involved with the last extension, now aBozo has his deal - but to prevent parliamentary scrutiny he has hit "pause", wants an election, but doesn't have a majority for one..... all he has done is frustrate parliament in his tenure. I wouldn't give us one.......

Donald Tusk "Please do not waste this time" 10th April 2019

The make up of Parliament worries me too Listening. If the WAIB is going to go through I would rather have this set of MPs overseeing it. Nick Boles has already said the replacement candidates for the Tory leavers are hard Brexiteers. Letwin, Grieve and Bercow have managed to as far as possible limited the tricks played by the Government, it will be much easier for them to get stuff to pass without the ‘rebels’ even if after an election the numbers stay the same.

Looking at the possibility of a Tory mutiny. Many are still angry about the removal of the whip from the 21, and now they ask why not take a few more days to get the WA passed. The Men In Suits may be wanting a word.

Or beg the EU for 2 futher months to call a GE - by that stage, they would probably the GE called before they agree

They can't call a GE though, not without Corbyn agreeing.

Brexit: Public turning against Boris Johnson’s deal and blaming him for latest delay, poll finds

It’s difficult to see who else could be to blame. But interesting that his petulant toddler act delaying tactics are being picked up more widely.

I still think that faced with no deal or revoke on Thursday, revoke WOULD get the necessary votes at that point (a tie, Bercow votes to revoke as his last act as Speaker!). The appetite would be there at that point.

Maybe Macron wants Parliament to be forced into that choice instead?

If there's a GE my hope is for a Landslide Vote in favour of the Alliance Party in NI. Can any of the NI-based posters here give an indication of the likelihood of this please?

Hateisnotgood
Alliance - from what I've heard, HIGHLY unlikely
BUT
If Sinn Fein and the SDLP talk sensibly, there might be a lot more sitting MPs from that side of the water

Dear Europe. Letters from famous people.

www.theguardian.com/books/2019/oct/26/dear-europe-letters-from-jk-rowling-neil-gaiman-may-beard-and-more

My letter would go as follows:

Dear Europe

Being born on the island of Ireland, I've always considered myself an islander first, and European second. I've witnessed civil war, having lived for the first 19 years of my life in Northern Ireland. However, it's complicated. I loved England and what seemed to me, it's cosmopolitan, carefree way of life. Everyone was welcome in the new age of the Common Market. We were united, as one.

I've been on interrail, and had money stolen, had the French pen pal, gave a room to a French exchange student.

I love Europe. Gladly, I do have an Irish passport. This is my salvation and keeps me connected.

mise le meas

So now Macron has said he won’t agree to an extension unless MPs vote for an election on Monday - and if we don’t get an extension, we leave with no deal on Halloween. This surely means there is now huge pressure on Corbyn to agree to one, doesn’t it?

Listening many thanks, what a shame, from this side of the Sea, the Alliance Party looks good, but I'm not there so I don't know.

If there is any chance of any discussion that gets NI's elected MPs sitting, that would be a good thing. I'm sure there's good reasons for 'boycotting' their own Assembly (Cash for Ash apparently) but srely it's better to Sit and therefore Act than not to Sit all?

@wondering7777
Pretty pissed off if Macron has indeed said that publicly- yes or no to an extension - but he shouldn't be getting involved in our politics. That's up for parliament to decide..... he appears to have taken a lead out of Trumps book. It will be interesting how Bozo plays that - hardly preserves our sovereignty by doing what the French tell us to do.......
On top of all of that I don't believe an election will solve anything.......

Pretty pissed off if Macron has indeed said that publicly- yes or no to an extension - but he shouldn't be getting involved in our politics.

Well, it’s not just our politics though is it? It’s the EU’s future at stake as well here, and we can hardly blame Macron for thinking trop c’est trop!

Credible link please Wondering

exclude Express and Mail.

@wondering7777 - yes it has huge effect on the EU - but the EU leaders have always been careful to not to stray into domestic politics - Boris is blocking parliament and by calling for an election he is encouraging it....... however since my last post I have looked at another news websites and can't find it referenced- where did you hear or see it?

Wondering
I've just done a google news search for "Macron Brexit" and the only sites saying that Macron has done anything are the Mail and the Express and the Times.
Remember that Macron is just one of the 27 leaders who all get an 'equal' vote.

@placemats no idea why you can’t just use Google news, but here you go:

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-french-threaten-no-deal-in-five-days-by-blocking-delay-c62w23p9h

I'm beginning to think that the UK needs to go no deal. I think it's the only way to get through to a large proportion of the population. They won't let go of their fantasy until reality well and truly bites. Sadly it'll be biting for those who knew it would too. And I suspect they'll still find someone else to blame rather than finally conceding that they fucked up big time.

I can't bring myself to actively want something which will lead to people dying. Even though other effects would serve some people right. Though they wouldn't blend Brexit.