Status Recall as of approx 1
Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement (The WA) :
Currently parliamentary session blocked in its current form due to being nodded through (government accept defeat without vote). It can not be represented to the house without changes (which the EU will not allow - unless perhaps it reverts back to May's WA) or a 'substantive change of circumstances' (eg another party says they will support it and there is reason to believe Johnson now has a clear majority).
The Withdrawal Agreement Bill (The WAB):
The withdrawal agreement bill is purely about how the WA will be carried out in UK law. It passed its 2nd reading which is merely a indication of interest of support for the bill. The next stage is where amendments can be made and this is most relevant to the political declaration which accompanies the WA settlement.
This however has hit a road block due to the government recklessly and foolishly trying to push such an important and far reaching bill through in a ridiculous time frame, which no one could possibly give proper scrutiny to.
If Johnson wants a deal in the best int3of the country its an essential part of the process regardless of which side of the fence you sit. Failure to spot problems could leave us shafted by other countries later down the line.
The timetable is now under review and negotiation with Corbyn.
The extension with the EU:
The EU president has signaled he would support an extension. This is in part because issues in London mean it is highly unlikely the EU will be able to ratify a deal by next Thursday even if they have an emergency meeting. It's in their interests to extend in some way.
Going along with the Benn Act is the politically least risky option, though France are making growling noises about it.
Two issues spring up with this. The first is the issue of the UK having no EU Commissioner after 1st Nov and the second is the EU budget runs until 31st Dec 2019.
The Queens Speech:
The government as it stands might struggle to pass the QS especially with the DUP off side. It failing to pass is, in some ways, a good thing for Johnson. The speech was essentially a manifesto and blocking it is a good electioneering strategy. It also puts pressure on the opposition for a Vote of No Confidence.
There are already rumblings following the passing of the 2nd reading of the WAB and the EU signally they are open to an extension that some in Labour (including crucially Corbyn) do think they must agree to a GE in the autumn.
A Vonc is still unlikely to happen until the EU formalise the extension and the EU are unlikely to do this until its clear what Johnson's next move with the WAB is. Johnson meanwhile doesn't want to agree to a longer timetable as that ruins his do or die speech and facilitates an extension. So expect some brinkmanship over timings here. We might not get a formal extension approved until the wire.
The GE:
All Brexit is currently about is manoeuvring to win the next GE. It must be seen in this context.
Polling suggests that an extension without the WA is bad for Johnson and he is likely to lose support to the Brexit Party. There is an ever shrinking likelihood of the WA going through before 31st Oct, if its not impossible already. Thus Johnson needs to see if he can get the WA through very quickly after an extension but before a GE.
This reasonably lines up with Labour's problems. Before the WA goes through a GE looks bad for them with them haemorrhaging support to the LDs and the the Brexit Party.
If they are seen to facilitate the WA passing before an election then there may also be a sense of betrayal amongst their majority remain supporters but it might let them off with the Brexit Party threat particularly in the Midlands.
Meanwhile the SNP have an increasing desire for a GE. They look like they will clean up in Scotland and it might be their last chance now to stop Brexit. Similar logic applies to the LDs.
Thus the chances of a GE shoot up once an extension is granted, but the Cons and Labour have a mutual self interest in getting a deal done ASAP before a GE in many ways.
This of course would probably suit the French and therefore the EU.
Which is why a deal before 15th Nov and by the 15th Dec, isnt unrealistic. A GE might come before Christmas but I think both the Cons and Lab have something of an interest in letting the dust settle and getting new messaging in to head off threats from the LDs and Brexit Party. I'd be more inclined to say a Feb election tbh.
Anyway things may have changed since I started typing this up given how quickly things are moving.
But despite the headlines that Brexit is in pergortory it is now slowly rolling forward and now has some momentum behind it.