Westminstenders: Super Saturday

[RedToothBrush]

Parliament sits on a Saturday for the first time since the Falklands.

A deal has been reached with the EU. Its utterly shite and worse for the UK than May's deal. It even leaves no deal as an option after transition.

The DUP don't like it. They got predictably shafted.

Tomorrow is a debate and vote on the deal. Amendments are key, in particular the Letwin amendment which seeks to close a loophole in the Benn Act and stop the Deal being adopted tomorrow, instead forcing the ultimate decision over the deal to a later date and forcing an extension.

Which the EU may or may not agree to.

There is also talk of forcing another ref via amendments but this, unlike the Letwin amendment is unlikely to pass.

The vote tomorrow looks to be very tight. The Letwin amendment passes looks likely to make Johnson fail to have the numbers. However there is talk that enough Labour MPs have decided to back the deal.

There is also a big anti Brexit march in London tomorrow (which runs the risk of having problems with the Extinction Rebellion ban). Good luck to everyone going tomorrow.

See you on the other side (which might now be on this thread!!)

Misti you can be faux-offended all you like, but you don't own my thoughts and I actually do feel rather upset on behalf of the EU. More than I do for my own UK-based feelings.

I'll leave you all now to your back-slapping and machinations and speculations. The EU pulled out all the stops for us, and I respect them for it, far more than I respect most who post here.

I hazarded to pop in here and now I'll take my Leave. Have a good night all.

It's just gaslighting - lets call it out for what it is. Along with the faux concern for the 5 million.

I definitely find myself rooting for the EU at every step in the Brexit negotiations.

@BigChocFrenzy

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/19/eu-will-grant-brexit-extension-if-johnson-sends-letter-says-brussels

Hate, we've often posted here about the 3 million E27 expats in Britain and the 1 million UK expats, the non-EU immigrants hit by the "hostile environment"
and many posters are very worried about Ireland and the possibility of violence

In fact, some Leave posters have criticised us for thinking too much about the costs to the EU and to EU citizens

Can't win !

Some posters are desperately worried about what is going to happen and use these threads for emotional support

Misti I do. I really do.
I'm the daughter of an immigrant myself. I ... don't know that I have the words to paint what that means. But it's something definite, that you can feel the edges of - but is often invisible and unexplainable to those who don't live it.

And I had a woman hold me, last time I was canvassing, and smile at me, and tell me - with kindness - that she had been here 30 years and was now, suddenly 'unhomed' and being asked to apply for settled status, and 'you can't expect me to do all that, can you?'

And, no, I couldn't.

And she shouldn't have to.

And it was wrong on every conceivable level. From the practical to the way it severs you're being from the very air in which your being dwells - and the relationships in which you live.

I can't explain it, I'm not doing justice to it.

But honestly, when she held me, I felt it - it kind of ran long the feelings I had, as the child of an immigrant.

It made me cry.

It's beyond awful. ☹️

I can just imagine the reaction if a Remainer MP in a debate on the WA dared express how sorry they were for the billions that Brexit so far has cost the EU !

Cat you haven't explained shit, just that Labour are in opposition. From my own government experience the opposition would have clearly spoken out about what they wanted, what they would do but as far as I can see the UK government and opposition is a complete farce, how long do you think the EU will put up with this crap? Either agree a deal or revoke.

The last time I went canvassing was quite traumatic, actually.

I had quite a few people tell me how Brexit was already affecting them - and it was genuinely upsetting. I really mean that. It wasn't something I could shake off - I kind of ended up taking it into me and carrying it with me. ☹️

Labour policy for a new Brexit deal - "A Labour government will negotiate a sensible deal within three months of being elected. It will be based on the things we have long advocated and discussed with the EU; trade unions and businesses, including a new customs union, a close single market relationship and guarantees of rights and protections." from labour.org.uk/page/labour-brexit-plan/

That seems reasonably clear for an opposition that has no power or ability or authority to actually negotiate with the EU. Can you imagine the outcry if it dared to try? In fact I seem to remember that there were mentions of Labour talks, and some grumbles around the 'how dare they' subject.

Just looking at the coverage of MPs walking out of parliament with sizeable police escorts - as much as I’m not a fan of JRM/Loathsome and their ilk, it’s sad that politics in this country has come to this.

Oh, OK, I'll do that, Viola, because I hate to make you cross ...

Oh, hang on a minute ... I'm not in government! So I can't!!

Sorry. 🤷‍♀️

Maybe you should go and find a cat to set on fire and make yourself feel better.

🙂

wondering That's just quoting "EU officials" and Merkel & Varadkar, who have always wanted an extension

It's still just the Guardian's opinion (which almost all political analysts agree with)
but
It is NOT an official EU statement

Read their quote of Varadkar:
"president Tusk will consult all 27 heads of state & govt on whether or not we will grant one. Extension can only be granted by unanimity.”

and what Macron was saying:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/18/brexit-extension-unavoidable-if-mps-reject-deal-says-merkel

"‘it is time to put end to negotiations and move on to future relationship’"

So we can all judge it is very likely, but it is not certain
Only takes one to veto
and quite possibly they will leave their decision until the 28th, to pile on the pressure for the WA

Given FPTP, if a GE happens what would Labour stand for re Brexit?

The trouble is that moderate language just doesn't get traction or hearing in the UK any more. Only sensationalism. I would like to add to my wishlist posted earlier that we get control of communications and have serious debates about the function, purpose and current forms of media.

In war time the first thing anyone tries to do is get control of communications. Somehow everyone forgets that communication is just as important in peace time, and it's ended up being treated as a game piece for rich foreigners. We've ended up with a very restricted set.

My Labour MP was telling me that they would take a GE on with a people's vote, and a remain ticket in that, Outsomnia.

Thanks for the link Dark at least it explains Labour's position. It should be put back to the people, with clear points about what leaving will mean and what the deal will be. I fear that won't happen though, the leave side and politicians are more entrenched in their views even more now then when they first voted and public views seems very anti Corbyn.

Only takes one to veto

They’ll be the one who then is responsible for killing the GFA and reigniting the Troubles. (And incurring the wrath of the powerful Irish-American lobby.) I cannot see any EU country courting all that.

FT analysis shows narrow majority likely if Commons votes on withdrawal pact next week

https://www.ft.com/content/513fddb4-f28b-11e9-a79c-bc9acae3b654

....if MPs stick to their voting patterns based on the Letwin amendment, which was passed to avert the prospect of a no-deal exit on October 31.
Some 320 MPs appear set to back Mr Johnson’s deal, with 315 opposed

• excluding the two tellers from each side.

The whole of the Conservative parliamentary party supported the government in opposing the Letwin amendment, with the exception of two MPs who abstained:
Anne Milton and Caroline Spelman.

These MPs will be cajoled into supporting Mr Johnson’s deal when it is voted on again, with the threat of being kicked out of the party if they do not.

A reading of Saturday’s vote also suggests that out of the independent Conservatives

• Tory MPs who have lost the party whip -

20 are expected to support Mr Johnson’s deal.

Three ex-Conservative MPs are campaigning for a second referendum: Guto Bebb, Dominic Grieve and Justine Greening.
Based on the debate in the Commons on Saturday, all of the others are expected to back the government.

Eleven Labour MPs are set to back Mr Johnson’s deal
....
The rest of the Parliamentary Labour party are expected to follow the party line and vote against.

There are also four independent MPs who may support the government: former Labour members Ian Austin and Frank Field;
former Liberal Democrat Stephen Lloyd; and Sylvia Hermon, an independent unionist MP.^
....
As well as the bulk of the Labour party,
all Scottish Nationalist, Liberal Democrat and Plaid Cymru MPs are expected to vote against the deal - as well as the sole Green MP.

Nine independent parliamentarians are thought to be against.

The Democractic Unionist party,
notionally Mr Johnson’s governing partner, made it clear on Saturday they will not co-operate with the government.
.....
its 10 MPs are now expected to vote against the Brexit deal at every turn.

cat from another child of an immigrant who knows where you're coming from

David Trimble came out and said it doesn't go against the GFA, so did the Irish government. The DUP( who voted against the gfa) are now using it as an excuse.

To be fair to Parliament and its members, it wasn’t designed to (or evolved to) deal with the nonsense that is Brexit.
It’s a bit like asking the human immune system to deal with space bugs. It couldn’t.
So we shouldn’t be surprised that our elected reps aren’t coping.

"They’ll be the one who then is responsible for killing the GFA and reigniting the Troubles. (And incurring the wrath of the powerful Irish-American lobby"

No, that would be the UK govt

The EU has bent over backwards with repeated extensions and negotiations

Reading papers from around the world, the overwhelming consensus is that the UK has screwed up with Brexit

Only in the UK would the EU receive some blame,
but they are used to being blamed for things the UK govt does

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
President Macron has phoned Boris Johnson to ask him to clarify the UK's Brexit position and told him a delay is in no one's interest — Reuters

There was also a tweet 3hrs ago which said that Iain Duncan Smith had been told that Macron has said no extension to Boris Johnson earlier today.

@Voila212
The DUP can't stand Trimble so are most unlikely to accept his word for it!

They are interested in preserving the Union, not the GFA in any event...