Westminstenders: Super Saturday

[RedToothBrush]

Parliament sits on a Saturday for the first time since the Falklands.

A deal has been reached with the EU. Its utterly shite and worse for the UK than May's deal. It even leaves no deal as an option after transition.

The DUP don't like it. They got predictably shafted.

Tomorrow is a debate and vote on the deal. Amendments are key, in particular the Letwin amendment which seeks to close a loophole in the Benn Act and stop the Deal being adopted tomorrow, instead forcing the ultimate decision over the deal to a later date and forcing an extension.

Which the EU may or may not agree to.

There is also talk of forcing another ref via amendments but this, unlike the Letwin amendment is unlikely to pass.

The vote tomorrow looks to be very tight. The Letwin amendment passes looks likely to make Johnson fail to have the numbers. However there is talk that enough Labour MPs have decided to back the deal.

There is also a big anti Brexit march in London tomorrow (which runs the risk of having problems with the Extinction Rebellion ban). Good luck to everyone going tomorrow.

See you on the other side (which might now be on this thread!!)

Viola There are a fair number of Unionists who are not happy with Northern Ireland being cut adrift from the mainland.

The history of the Troubles is long and complicated.

Suffice it to say that, while David Trimble might (optimistically) say he doesn't see it as being against the spirit of the GFA or imply he doesn't think it will affect the truce, he does not, alas, speak for all.

I cannot tell you how much I worry that Brexit will re-open the conflicts we saw as I grew up.

I blame the British people

What did they expect to happen?

Here we are

Paul Brand @paulbranditv
NEW: Iain Duncan Smith tells me he's heard President Macron of France has already told Downing Street the EU will not grant an extension

Beth Rigby @bethrigby
I have also been told by an MP that the PM had showed someone a text in which Macron apparently told Johnson they’d be no extension....

So that's three separate journalists for 3 different organisations saying this.

Maybe born, but some of us have been wishing it would evolve for some time. There's been a whole society devoted to it www.electoral-reform.org.uk/ , various people have made money or academics made careers writing about the state of the nation, Caroline Lucas has written books about failings, numerous people like myself have been grumbling ineffectually - because there's no way in the British system that we can become effective - for some time. We even had Clegg raising the issues of FPTP, and that got corrupted into that stitch up of a referendum. The vested interests have not wanted to listen and not wanted to evolve and I think the ordinary people of the UK who've had to watch their democracy and rights be eroded have the right to be damned pissed off about that.

@BigChocFrenzy

From the article:

But senior EU officials said it was clear during the discussions among the leaders at a summit on Thursday that “they would grant an extension”. “Even [the French president Emmanuel] Macron in the room didn’t suggest otherwise,” the source said.

The chair of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs committee, Norbert Röttgen, who is a senior member in the same party as the German chancellor, Angerla Merkel, said he had “no doubt” an extension would be granted.

I think it’s practically a given.

President Macron has phoned Boris Johnson to ask him to clarify the UK's Brexit position and told him a delay is in no one's interest-Reuters

but Boris still has to request a delay though, doesn't he?

President Macron has phoned Boris Johnson to ask him to clarify the UK's Brexit position and told him a delay is in no one's interest

It's pretty obvious that the EU would prefer deal to no deal (especially since the Fatberg conceded on all the EU's red lines) but this is just Macron politicking. Of course the EU would prefer a deal, and will apply pressure to get one. But if they can't have deal, they will have to choose between delay and no deal, and I don't think we are yet at the point where they decide no deal is preferable.

David Trimble came out and said it doesn't go against the GFA,

Consider the source.
(He is now a Tory peer)

so did the Irish government.

Consider the source.
(An all-Ireland economy is a great result for them, after staring down the barrel of no deal.)

The DUP( who voted against the gfa) are now using it as an excuse.

I am no fan of the DUP and have no sympathy. They got themselves into this mess.
But it is not just them who are against the border in the Irish Sea in this deal. Lots of Unionists (like Lady ) who supported the GFA are angry about it. As, alarmingly, are paramilitary Loyalist groups. And the thing is that the GFA is a peace treaty, not a list of commandments. If one side of the community entirely loses faith in it then it is dead.

Iain Duncan Smith tells me he's heard President Macron of France has already told Downing Street the EU will not grant an extension

Seriously, why would anyone take the word of a talking potato?

I don't think Macron has that authority.

I suspect it may well be Johnson will happily show an email to that effect to keep the pressure of No Deal v. This Deal on MPs.

Macron has a home audience to please but I suspect he will be pressured into accepting an extension.

I have also been told by an MP that the PM had showed someone a text in which Macron apparently told Johnson they’d be no extension....

Hmm, “told by someone that someone else was shown a text” doesn’t sound especially credible to me. I prefer to trust Angela Merkel’s verdict!

BTW the Benn Act has to be completed by midnight UK time not EU time because its a UK required law not under EU jurisdiction.

Seems to be some confusion about 11pm tonight. Its not. Its midnight

Like Lady *Hermon

Donald Tusk @eucopresident 4m ago
Waiting for the letter.
I just talked to PM @BorisJohnson about the situation after the vote in the House of Commons.

Voila David Trimble quit the Unionists several years ago and is a (rightwing) Tory peer, not a Unionist one

The DUP mainly supported Brexit because they thought it would wreck the GFA, put up a border in Ireland to separate them off and hence delay Irish reunification
There is also a belief there that the EU is a "Catholic" organisation, with conspiracy theories about the EU flag signifying Catholicism

However, now BJ has dumped them and produced a WA that has a border between GB and NI, that will accelerate a United Ireland

So, the DUP opposing the WA is to be expected
They were very stupid & naive to support Brexit, but their consistent aim all along has been to delay a United Ireland

OhLook Thank you - and 💐 for you, too. xx

"I don't think Macron has that authority."

Macron has the authority to apply the French veto

Totally agree bigchoc, the brexit referendum was never compatible with the GFA. It's David Cameron fault for even contemplating a ref. The Irish government spoke out about the fact Brexit would cause a border and affect the GFA but we're completely ignored. Now we are in the position where a border in Ireland or in the Irish sea could see violence in NI but there also could be violence in UK if Brexit is revoked or softened too much for brexiteers. It's a scary time.

So that's three separate journalists for 3 different organisations saying this.

Yes, but what are their sources? All IDS? Journalists tend to respond to the same press releases.

I'm not surprised that posters like @Voila212 don't know Labour policy. It's not been well presented, and it's not been given the air time that the Tory policy has had, for obvious reasons. There's also been a bias in the media against Corbyn generally, which I believe has led to Labour policy being misrepresented and dismissed as too confusing.

And the thing is that the GFA is a peace treaty, not a list of commandments. If one side of the community entirely loses faith in it then it is dead.

Just quoting this because IMHO it's an important point that risks getting missed in a fast moving thread.

There has been a lot of focus on the remain side of the risk of a resurgence of sectarian violence on the republican side, if there is a land border. But maybe we've lost sight of the fact that a sea border could also be problematic (I know I had).

At the march today, a video was shown, where Major and Blair discussed the Troubles, the road to the GFA, what if achieved (peace), and how this Deal threatens this.

It was incredibly moving.

The footage of the aftermath of bombings was harrowing.

Major pointed out that no-one under 20 will have a memory of what it was like. That really struck me quite forcibly.

I can't believe we are playing fast and loose with the GFA.

"so did the Irish government."

The WA avoids No Deal and would accelerate a United Ireland

Varadkar would have bitten BJ's arm off when he realised the potential of the initial concession
He would have gone all out to persuade the EU to open proper negotiations, when before they had said May's WA was it

If this WA passes, he'll be prominant in Irish history books in 20 years time

Interestingly I’ve seen similar comments in the French press. Apparently, RoI would have a similar position too...

BTW the Benn Act has to be completed by midnight UK time not EU time because its a UK required law not under EU jurisdiction.

Seems to be some confusion about 11pm tonight. Its not. Its midnight

That’s 2am in my current time zone. I’m afraid I’m not going to be staying up to see what happens...