Will Boris’s deal pass?

[Bearbehind]

Gauging opinion - No discussion, just yes or no

No

• passed tomorrow.

Yes.

It's means that Ireland will finally be reunited. Scotland will get independence so the border will go onto the shortest border lines on the Island of the UK. It will be the UK of England and Wales

Can't believe some Labour MP's are actually going to vote for it, they must have lost all reason.

Well, I suppose those who represent strong Leave constituencies feel they have to vote for the deal.

Personally I’m just praying it doesn’t get through - I just can’t see how the numbers will add up to pass it?

It's a blackmail deal. Of that there is no doubt.

Makes you think really about the future of the UK of England and Wales.

Well as said, John Mann is putting it in double figures for labour MPs who will vote for it. If you're in a leave constituency and you understand that's your mandate, and this is a shit ton better than no deal, you can see why they will.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are more labour MPs who vote for it, than the dozen or so predicted.

I just can’t see how the numbers will add up to pass it?

He has 284 as a base case with his own MPs. He needs 320. There are 41 floating votes, people like independents, small parties etc,

If you take that 41 and a number of labour rebels (predicted at 12) then he has to get 36 out of those 53. Or 24 out the 41. So wholly possible if you look at the analysis that that many will vote for it.

It will be tight I think, a few votes either way, but it is feasible.

Oliver Letwins amendment already has the numbers, and that's the deal with an amendment that says we need to extend as long as it takes to get the legislation in place.

I wonder what will happen if it's a draw and the speaker ends up with the deciding vote?

No. Not a chance in hell.

It will be very, very close. Could go either way by just a very few votes

What time will they be voting?

BBC seems to think it'll pass.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50096546

I wonder what will happen if it's a draw and the speaker ends up with the deciding vote?

According to someone from the Hansard Society on LBC earlier, if it's a draw the speaker would be expected to vote against the bill according to normal practice.

Around 2.30 ish Dusty, assuming things go to plan.

Thank you

Various amendments also to be debated tomorrow, selected by the speaker at the beginning of the session. I wonder if one of them will be to attach at 2nd Ref to the deal if it passes?

In that situation it might almost be a good thing if the deal did get enough votes...?

Please God No.

But I'm not optimistic

Apparently there's already an amendment to have a 2nd ref if the deal is voted down

I hope not, unless tied in with a second ref

Yes, that's what I was getting at Ellebelly. We are going to need some sort of resolution, some sort of change - can't just be in a situation as before where the deal is voted down and we ask for an extension.

I think the EU will give an extension because they are also hopeful that brexit might still not happen, but we must have some structure to it this time, either a 2nd ref or a general election

Yes there is an amendment where it's passed but it needs to go to the people for the final vote, and the vote is this deal or remain.

I'm not sure if it's selected or not by Bercow.

Letwins amendment is first, basically they are closing the benn act loophole. The loop hole is that if the legislation isn't passed in time we could slip out with no deal by mistake. The amendment says the withdrawal agreement needs to be made law first , and when it does the house gives its approval.

It does seem he has the numbers to pass that.

they are also hopeful that brexit might still not happen
I don't think they do anymore, I think they've had enough of us.

I actually feel really sorry for Remain MPs. They know Brexit is enormously damaging for the country, they also know that people voted for it, and it will harm most of the people who did vote for it. They're even getting death threats over this and murder of Jo Cox by a far right, Britain First nutter can't be far from their mind.

I don't think they do anymore, I think they've had enough of us.

I don't doubt they're sick of it all KennDodd but if there's any chance of us staying they would definitely want to promote that - they want the uk to stay in the eu and even during all the hoo-ha about securing the deal Juncker and Barnier were making comments to that effect.

Thank god for that Bluntness. I always thought Letwin looked a bit dim but he's a lot quicker than bojo and his gaming crew.

I have a horrible feeling it will.

Yes it will

If it does I hope it comes with the amendment that he has to put legal text in first, then they agree on that whenever it is.

Im sorry but we spent longer discussing our school academy agreement than they have this, and its not even the legal text.