Will Boris’s deal pass?

[Bearbehind]

Gauging opinion - No discussion, just yes or no

No

It will be close but no.

Very likely not.

He is minus 42. He needs 43 votes from somewhere.

Not the Libs, SNP or PC. Not Caroline Lucas or Sylvia Hermon. Not the Tiggers or Indies.

So that leaves Labour and Tory rebels.

Correction:

He needs 22 votes.

Isn’t the split here very much along the lines of what people want to happen rather than what is likely to happen.

Unless there are a lot of abstentions BJ just doesn’t have the numbers.

I can't see this getting enough support. Particularly until the answer of a confirmatory ref is brought to the house.

www.ft.com/content/c0c6298c-f0e6-11e9-bfa4-b25f11f42901 …

It'll be interesting to see if the above is updated, 318 yes, 321 no.

Wow that is close but thins whole debacle has been close. Why are we here? Because a callous PM decided it was in the Tory parties interest to hold a referendum, not the countries interest of course. For all the arguments over the Blair years he never did anything so contrary to the well being of the nation.

I genuinely don't know.

I think it should go through as it deals with citizens' rights and protecting the GFA.

But I don't think it should go through because it removes regulatory alignment and there will be a bonfire of workers' rights after 1 Jan 2021.

I'm glad I am not an MP!

Yes

No

Because it wont get the backing of the Labour mps unless it puts the workers rights and environmental protection back into the main section as opposed to in the advisory bit. I should have passed otherwise

No

For those saying it's better than no deal, this deal just kicks the no deal can down the road a bit. ERG members are seeking assurances from the attorney general that at the end of the transition period we then no deal, that's why they're coming on side.

Here's what Labrokes think

m.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/#!/event_details/225327493

Ah yes, worker’s rights. All that useless red tape.

Sorry, didn’t answer. I think yes because the Whips will make offers people can’t refuse.

Can they add alignment of environmental and workers rights (or better) as an amendment??

They don’t want statutory worker’s rights. They want to be able to treat the workers like shit because that’s how you maximise profits.

Just on the Guardian live page:

The court of session has finished hearing submissions on the latest legal challenge by anti-Brexit campaigner Jolyon Maugham QC, and Lord Pentland has said that he will give his decision by the end of the day.

Scotland’s highest court heard that Boris Johnson’s new withdrawal agreement to leave the European Union involves a “clear and unequivocal breach” of national law.

Do you have a link?

Yes, I think with some amendment, most likely the Letwin one, where it's agreed but with an extension to make sure the legalities are passed and we can't crash out if they aren't completed on time. So basically a techinical extension.

If not that one then, still yes, but with a second referendum attached to it, so the vote would be this deal or remain.

I also think there is a likely hood more labour MPs will revolt than is expected as they are in leave constituencies and need to defend their position.

www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/18/boris-johnson-launches-frantic-sales-pitch-of-brexit-deal-ahead-of-commons-vote-politics-live

Basically the case is that it's illegal for the U.K. government to make Northern Ireland part of another countries customs territory , and they are arguing that although technically ni is in the U.K. customs territory with the deal. the reality they are saying is it's in the eu one, because it has to align with some eu rules.

I'd be surprised if it's got legs but you never know.🤷‍♀️

Sadly
Yes

Leave EU are going nuts on FB doing everything they can to promote this deal as the route to no deal.

Co incidentally John Mann is on sky at the moment saying he thinks labour MPs who vote for it will be in double figures.

I don't think we can under estimate how many labour MPs can't stand Corbyn, and how much pressure they are under from their own constituents to leave and respect the referendum. As this deal is clearly a million miles better than no deal, you can see why some of them would revolt....