Will Boris’s deal pass?

[Bearbehind]

Gauging opinion - No discussion, just yes or no

No

I think the majority of people are so fed up they don’t want another referendum

Tories are comfortably ahead in the polls

And I really don’t think the result will be different- I think it’s more likely to gain a higher leave result

Tories are comfortably ahead in the polls

If Brexit goes ahead and there’s an election after it and not before, I wonder if the Tories will stay ahead in the polls. Look what happened to Winston Churchill in the first election after the war.

That’s true but then it’s happened

I think if there is a very sudden down turn in the economy they would possibly loose

If not a comfortable win - Boris is a vote winner and will also be riding on the back of I was the one to stand up to the EU

Not sure but I hope not as it's much worse for rights

"The first Withdrawal Agreement included an article on “non-regression of labour and social standards”, which makes commitments on things like “fundamental rights at work, occupational health and safety, fair working conditions and employment standards”.

The original text said the EU and UK “shall ensure that the level of protection provided for by law, regulations and practices is not reduced below the level provided by the common standards applicable within the Union and the United Kingdom”.

However, this entire section has been removed from the new Withdrawal Agreement. Instead, the issue is covered in the accompanying Political Declaration, which is not legally binding.

It now says: “The Parties should uphold the common high standards applicable in the Union and the United Kingdom at the end of the transition period in the areas of state aid, competition, social and employment standards, environment, climate change and relevant tax matters.”

According to the House of Commons Library, the Political Declaration is “not a binding legal document and it is unlikely that it will bind the parties to anything beyond a commitment to negotiate for a future relationship in good faith.”

So although there is still a formal commitment to maintain “high standards” in these areas, it appears to have been legally watered down since Mrs May’s deal

I’m a European Citizen. I have made my home here and I have applied for settled status.

I hope this deal gets voted through today, and I will tell you why:

The one thing that really gets my goat about this whole thing is that Parliament seems to have forgotten one crucial thing: they are merely there as the representatives of their Constituents. They do not just represent the Constituents who voted them into their position - they represent ALL of them.

What we see now is MP’s voting against the will of their Constituents because their Party Leaders tell them that that is the Party’s stance.

In my view, every MP should have voted as per the 2016 Referendum outcome for their Constituency. As I said before, their ONLY job is to represent their Constituents.

I had no vote in this entire scenario. I however agree with a PP that the worker’s rights stance Labour is banging on about is a red herring.

Like it or loath it, the people were promised that the outcome of the Referendum would be abided by.

Now people want another Referendum. What will they demand if they don’t like the outcome of a second Referendum? Best of 5??

UK politics is becoming the laughing stock of the world when it could have been so very different.

For those of you who are so vociferously Pro-Europe, do me a favour and read some European newspapers. It’s not a pretty read and could be very eye opening for some of you.

How do you mean?

My predictions

Boris's deal gets passed
We leave sometime between mid November and end of Jan into transition period until end 2020.
Winter/spring 2020 GE
Tories win with Boris having delivered Brexit and no negative consequences felt. Project fear was wrong.
End 2020 transition period ends and we 'no deal'. Project fear becomes project reality.
Nearly five more years of Tory rule with no way to get them out.

Phil me?

I mean that in the sense that there is a serious economic downturn in process in continental Europe.

I mean that in the sense that far right sentiments are sweeping across the continent to an extent that it scares me.

I mean that in the sense that it is scary that the level of neo-nazism is at an unprecedented level since WWII.

I mean that in the sense that when even in my home country, The Netherlands (“the last bastion of true liberalism” 😉), the Forum For Democracy (distinctly right leaning) manages to become the largest national party in the local elections, that scares me.

I mean that in the sense that things are brewing on the Continent and that some people here seem to completely ignore that.

Hell I know all you say too.

Re vote. I don't think it will. Some mps are so removed from reality. They are lost in ever revolving soundbites in their own heads.
Sourberry is still going on about a bus and a vote on 26th June. Bonkers.

@HellToupee In parliamentary democracy MPs are not merely mouthpieces for "the will of the people". They don't just do what people tell them to do - there's a reason Parliament is not considered an executive branch. Instead MPs are entrusted with agency to make decisions in the best interest of their constituents. This includes finding the best possible version of Brexit. The 2016 referendum did not allow voters to state what kind of Brexit they want. Referendums are just terrible governing tools. But if people were allowed to vote on whether they want to stay or leave, by that logic surely they should be also allowed to have a direct vote on what kind of deal they want? Which is what the People's Vote campaign is about.

Frezia I know and understand that. It was however agreed and promised that “the will of the people” would be abided by with regards to the 2016 Referendum, so it is a different matter.

As far as the People’s vote is concerned, I would actually agree with it if it was a question of agreeing to a certain Brexit deal. I don’t agree with it however, since one of the options is to be “revoke Article 50 and stop Brexit”.

That is not voting for a particular deal, that is an entirely new Referendum!!!

Besides, if their task is to find the best possible Brexit deal, why are they still campaigning for No Brexit?

Your arguments are very stale HellToupee, out of date like the 2016 referendum.

Ah well, finally something I have in common with the ardent Remainers-at-all-cost then!

@HellToupee I'm Jewish. I'm well aware of the far right being a Europe-wide problem, believe me. I saw a lot of AfD posters when I was in Germany a couple of years ago and a Pegida rally was taking place in Munich, where I was staying, on my last day there. It really scares me. Muslims and immigrants are the targets du jour but I'm not naive enough to think we'll be next. Viktor Orban certainly doesn't like us.

I voted Remain, but I'd be more OK with Brexit if the government had actually had a concrete plan in place, the likes of Aaron Banks weren't funding the Leave side, and they didn't spend three years fannying about.

@HellToupee
Does the fact that Brexit is so loved by the far right and English nationalists not trouble you?

[MPs] do not just represent the Constituents who voted them into their position - they represent ALL of them

Not that I'm a constitutional expert.. but I don't think that's a reasonable interpretation of how British politics work.
Leaving aside their own constituents vs. all constitutents issue: that part is probably also wrong. Moreover...

If you really believed what PP wrote then the opposition would just blithely always support all bills of the ruling party.
Instead, in the British system, the opposition is expected to hold the govt to account.
The opposition shouldn't advocate violent revolution (that would be ignoring "Will of the People") but the opposition is entitled to agitate every step of the way to argue other principles, to point out the flaws, and to advocate their alternative viewpoint that didn't win last time but could convince people in future.

If anything, since 2016, there has been an abdication of the role of opposition. We should have more MPs advocating loudly that UK should Remain or Revoke. It took 3 yrs for LibDems to take this position. Maybe only SNP have functioned as a reasonable (Brexit) opposition all this time.

In my view, every MP should have voted as per the 2016 Referendum outcome for their Constituency. As I said before, their ONLY job is to represent their Constituents.

This is a silly opinion anyway (that's not how the British constitution works) but aside from that, the EU ref wasn't counted on a constituency basis. We do have estimates, but MPs do not know how their constituents voted in the referendum. And of course all MPs currently in parliament derive their democratic mandate not from the EU ref but from a subsequent GE, in which voters were offered a hard Brexit by May, but refused to give her a majority.

@PhilSwagielka semi-snap. My father and paternal side of my family are Jewish. My grand parents and parents lost family and friends. Pegida should be banned beyond the far side of Fuck, AfD is gaining ground every month.

As you said, it’s not just Germany though. The Eastern Block doesn’t like anything/one that is “different” and that is fanning the flames off all that is nasty and repulsive back to Western Europe. “I’m not naive enough to think we’ll be next” - typo surely??

The 3 years fannying about have made everything about this almost risible but can’t be solely blamed on either side of the House, surely??

I agree that a deal should be agreed etc but I am adamant that it is far too late to demand a 2nd Referendum which has “stop Brexit” as an option.

@KennDodd: does it not worry you that Remain is so beloved by the Marxist Left? Any extreme view is dangerous.

My original post was not condemning anyone’s choice (Remain/Leave) but the shambles the political process has made of the Referendum outcome. This was not to follow the same procedure as a normal election - this was to be the once in a lifetime vote that would be adhered to.

Boris will get it done I was well impressed how he put it across today.
There’s going to be some towing in the next couple of weeks fingers crossed they all see sense and get us out of that EU

this was to be the once in a lifetime vote that would be adhered to.

Parliament was given the opportunity to make the referendum binding.

Parliament did not take this opportunity.

Constitutionally the ref was a glorified opinion poll. That's not to say the result does not have political importance. But it has absolutely zero constitutional or legal weight.

@HellToupee it was a typo. I'm NOT naive enough, I meant. I side-eye Jews who team up with the far right because they have NEVER been on our side. I wonder how many more synagogues are going to get shot up. I'm just glad the shooter in Germany didn't get into the shul because it was Yom Kippur, the day when pretty much everyone goes to synagogue (I don't cos I find the service exhausting) and it would have been rammed.

Also, wtf do you mean about Marxists? Marxists don't love the EU and are more likely to be pro-Brexit, because they think it's racist, neoliberal and undermining the working class with free movement of labourers from Eastern Europe. Or is everyone on the left a commie now?

Ugh, I can't type, I meant 'I'm not naive enough to think we WON'T be next'.

I mean that in the sense that far right sentiments are sweeping across the continent to an extent that it scares me.

It is scary how much racism has reared its ugly head during Brexit. Stay or leave there is no shutting the lid on this.

The genie is out of the bottle now.