Will Boris’s deal pass?

[Bearbehind]

Gauging opinion - No discussion, just yes or no

No

yes

Unfortunately I think it might
But then I don’t really know what it would mean if it didn’t, no deal?

@Bluntness100
This deal is the route to no deal, that's why the ERG are supporting it.

I don't understand how it's the route to no deal if it's amended to ensure there is an extension to ensure we only come out when the legalities are done. And if looks like Letwin has the numbers for that.

Think it'll probably pass with Labour voted, but I also think the Letwin amendment will pass.

What's wrong with the deal? Not being goady at all, I just been a bit tied up the last few days and haven't had the chance to read up on it.

Letwin amendment only prevents no deal now, not at the end of the transition. No?

Yes I think so

I don't understand odds. I guess the first bit is 'we have no idea, so will just make it equal' but I don't understand the next bit.

(This is why I never bet)

What's wrong with the deal? It's the same as Theresa May's deal except that the backstop is now a permanent Ireland-only frontstop, and some of the level playing field language has been removed.

So there is nothing wrong with it if you are OK with a customs border in the Irish Sea and you are happy to let the Tories roll back social protections.

The main difference between this deal and the one negotiated by the previous PM is that the new PM has a dick.

By the way did you know that neither May's deal nor Boris' deal guarantee UK citizens' rights in the EU? I didn't know that but have just read a comparison by a very reputable source (a competition law barrister called Anneli Howard - look her up on LinkedIn www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6590964840192319488/).

And under Boris' deal, leisure travel is only permitted if you have a visa and insurance (assume visa is the ESTA rather than a full blown Schengen visa) and business travel only if a MS permits. So any FoM for UK-only citizens at all has really been thrown under the bus.

The main difference between this deal and the one negotiated by the previous PM is that the new PM has a dick

Yes.

But as I mention above, more serious difficulties with it, too. It's not the same at all.

No. Not because it's a bad deal, but because Labour and SNP aren't going to vote for anything Johnson proposes on principle.

I think the picture is probably changing minute to minute as people learn more about the deal - it takes time for it to be gone over and filter through, by tomorrow people will have a much better idea of how bad it is.

Can't believe some Labour MP's are actually going to vote for it, they must have lost all reason. Their constituents will make them scapegoats when they find out just how crap a deal it is and how much more Brexit there is to do.

No. The alternative is No Deal or no Brexit. However, a lot of MPs are only interested in furthering their career at the expense of the country's well being. They will vote no to enhance their own interests.

I’d I understand it correctly- and I am happy to be proved wrong, one of the differences between this and May’s Deal is that May’s deal preserved current worker’s rights and this one does not.

So any FoM for UK-only citizens at all has really been thrown under the bus.

Almost all leave voters I know only cared about ending FOM, nothing else mattered to them, so that will go down well with them. Our young people will be the only ones in western Europe without the freedom to live as far to the east and west as Iceland to the Russian border and north and south from way, way inside the arctic circle all they way to almost touching Africa.

It’s also true that lots of people seemed to think that FoM only applied one way.....

No. Unless the Peter Kyle amendment gets resurrected. In which case yes.

Yes, thanks to Labour sell outs.

Bluntness100

It's the route to no deal because if no ongoing trade deal is agreed by the end of the transition period we default to no deal. The ERG are seeking legally binding assurances that this is the case.

It's not technically the default, because if you read the text, it's written into the deal that they can extend past 2020 if they have not concluded the trade deal negotiations by that point.

I really don't think that's something to be worried about.

but because Labour and SNP aren't going to vote for anything Johnson proposes on principle

This isn't a hundred percent accurate because there are clearly labour MPs who will vote for it, they are publicly stating so. And the snp won't vote for it because Scotland voted to remain,

No. Because at the moment that’s what the bookies think and those lads know their stuff. However it’s close- Evens for accept and 8/11 for reject.

It's not technically the default
Yes, they could extend but the ERG are seeking (and getting) legal assurances from the attorney general they will no deal at the end of transition, no extensions. That's what's winning their votes. Leave EU (on Facebook) are all over this, from saying yesterday that it's a terrible deal and MPs should vote it down to demanding it's passed today then onto WTO (as they put no deal).