The deal won't pass. The extension will be denied.

[StealthPolarBear]

Ahhhhh shiiit

My twitter feed is full of people pointing out how the press is completely misreporting Juncker.

He didn’t rule out an extension, he said why would we need one when we have a deal?

If Boris really wanted no deal he wouldn’t have compromised to get this one.

If the WA was not passed by Parl, No Deal would be quashed.

But I don’t feel I can trust Parl to hold their nerve this time. There are a lot of panicking Remainers - well perhaps mainly on here - but they may be representative.

It’s EU double bluff

They say they won’t extend

This splits the brexit vote in deal and no deal

No majority for the plan

Benn act means extension is asked

Surprise! EU gives extension but says new referendum must be held

New ref held, and voters vote “remain”

That’s my bet

I suspect that what will happen is a second referendum will be attached as an amendment to the deal, and that will pass, which means an extension of six months and the people get the final say, this deal or remain.

Do you really think so?

According to Stella Creasy, the DUP's refusal to back Johnson's deal (so far) is smoke and mirrors - at the ultra-eleventh hour they'll agree, because the government can help them void the abortion/same-sex marriage bills next week

Ha! Spot on! DUP and UUP have now signed a recall petition to force the assembly to sit on Monday to allow them to throw their spanner in the works. I’m fully expecting DUP to vote through the deal now with an assurance of support from BJ over abortion and same sex marriage reform. Fucking fantastic

@wondering7777

"How come TM wasn’t able to negotiate this then? Or was it more a case of she didn’t want to?"
To be fair, I think no matter who had been leading the Tory Govt at the time of Theresa May's deal, no-one would have got this deal. The EU were determined to punish us and give as little as possible.

Boris Johnson securing it is a combination of everyone being fed up, on both sides, at the time it is taking, combined with his resoluteness on not applying for an extension to the deadline.

Whatever criticisms of Boris Johnson there are, he has managed to get the EU to agree to this where Theresa May didn't. Even if it doesn't get through parliament, fair play to him.

Game, set and match Boris! Democracy prevails!

Would the DUP trust Boris though? He could easily get them on side and then backtrack on Monday.

We’ll done to all those that tried to block brexit. I don't understand this statement.

I think the poster is suggesting that Remainers who didn't vote for May's deals could be responsible for a no deal Brexit.

He could easily get them on side and then backtrack on Monday.

Has he any reason to backtrack? Abortion and SS marriage in NI isn’t even on his radar. He doesn’t give a shiny shite about any of that.

If Boris really wanted no deal he wouldn’t have compromised to get this one.

I'm not sure that is true either.

He has agreed a deal, which various parties will find it hard to vote through parliament because of its contents. Its harder than May's WA and its very much agains the DUP's demands of not treating NI differently.

From a purely domestic political point of view, he can now say that he succeeded in getting a deal, but perhaps has a high probability of it being doomed to fail in parliament.

He can than go "Its not my fault, look I tried" if we end up with No Deal. Thus cushioning the Tory Party from the political fall out of a potential No Deal.

Remember the only thing Johnson is really interested in, is being Prime Minister and being in power - the outcome of a General Election is ultimately more important to him, than what Brexit looks like.

That has ALWAYS been Johnson's motivation from the day he wrote two letters about whether to support leaving or remaining. He really couldn't give a fuck about the EU. He just wants power.

The EU were determined to punish us and give as little as possible.

Really? They’d have been delighted if we’d chosen to stay, they’d have been delighted if we’d have taken an off the peg soft Brexit - both would have been less hassle than this.

They would have given us everything, or let us keep everything, we chose a hardish Brexit.

Thanks Beer

@PeninsulaPanic inclined to agree. Like those weirdo Tea Party folks in the US support Trump so that Roe vs Wade gets overturned, so the last roll of the dice is where the DUP are hoping to stop civil rights legislation in NI.

I think everyone wasn't quite as sick if it as they are now in the eu, and Boris has played hard ball. He made it clear he had to make everyone believe he'd do no deal just to get a deal.

I don't think thr duo will agree. Looks like he's relying on enough labour rebels to get it through, as well as a few others, like his expelled MPs, and he might just do it, but it will be tight.

As said though, I suspect it will be they agree the deal on the understanding there is a second referendum and it's this deal or remain.

I was trying to imagine he had some shred of human decency Joxer

Abortion and SS marriage in NI isn’t even on his radar. He doesn’t give a shiny shite about any of that

Despite his many failings, he has no reason to perpetuate the status quo in NI. Anyway, wouldn't Sinn Fein have to agree to sit? Presumably they'll say they're not?

I think all this prorogation, supreme Court Benn bill shenanigans has provided the smoke and mirrors to quietly work with the EU to ensure no extension has been granted. This is why he has been so sure of a Halloween exit.

So Boris has managed to negotiate the EU’s opening offer? Hardly a major achievement

Boris has played hard ball. He made it clear he had to make everyone believe he'd do no deal just to get a deal.

As far as I can tell, in order to meet his hard line ‘we need to leave on 31st Oct’ stance, he has now got a deal that he was videoed as saying would be completely unacceptable to any Conservative government a couple of years ago.

They need five more mps to vote for the deal. Juncker’s statement is to encourage more labour mps to vote for it. Boris is happy either way. Jc is just wondering if he gains more friends by facilitating no deal or boris’s deal. He’d be nuts to facilitate no deal but we’ll see.

I was trying to imagine he had some shred of human decency Joxer

silly jane!

Anyway, wouldn't Sinn Fein have to agree to sit?

Yes.

Presumably they'll say they're not?

I would assume this too- is not in their favour to agree at this time. They’d know what DUP are doing.

He also said
“Everyone speaks English but nobody understands the English”

He can than go "Its not my fault, look I tried" if we end up with No Deal.

I’ve said the same thing myself. But he could equally well negotiate-yet-fail-to-get-a-deal because he refused to compromise his ERG principles or whatever. That would still look as if he’d tried.

Thus cushioning the Tory Party from the political fall out of a potential No Deal.

There is no cushioning for whoever presides over No Deal. Whoever is in power will be damned, possibly for good. The population won’t even remember or understand the whys and wherefores of how it came about they they would simply remember who was at the helm.

As far as I can tell, in order to meet his hard line ‘we need to leave on 31st Oct’ stance, he has now got a deal that he was videoed as saying would be completely unacceptable to any Conservative government a couple of years ago.

Yup.