The deal won't pass. The extension will be denied.

[StealthPolarBear]

Ahhhhh shiiit

I believe there are plans in place for medications to be available. The only ones that will be in short supply are those that are due to other causes like at present.
e.g. Epipens

There are systems in place in many government departments and agencies for both events - for a 'no deal' and for a deal. Think Customs & Excise duty systems for one. They aren't talked about because those that are privvy to the information are those with special clearance under the Official Secrets Act.

Do we even know what the deal is?

If there was a GE this winter, the Tories will walk it with a good majority, thus also removing the power of the DUP, so the DUP won't want a GE either.

I don't agree with this at all. The conservatives are hanging onto their mandate by an actual thread. They've not managed to get a majority since TM took over.

I also think the extension will be granted if there is a reason, ie referendum or general election,

The eu is just trying to help get it done, they want this done now.

I suspect that what will happen is a second referendum will be attached as an amendment to the deal, and that will pass, which means an extension of six months and the people get the final say, this deal or remain.

The EU must be thoroughly fed up with us. They can't spend all their time negotiating deals with the UK.
I'm surprised they've allowed so many extensions.

@JoxerGoesToStuttgart , it's WA with a border in the sea instead of the backstop and NI as a special economic area.
And Stormont gets to vote on it every 4 years with only a straight majority required to pass it or every 8 years if a majority of both communities support it. And if it doesn't pass in Stormont, a two year period to sort shit out rather than taking it away immediately.

We don't have to stock up we will take shipments coming through the UK to Ireland if necessary.
Am I reading this wrong, are you actually saying that the UK will steal medication that is suppose to be going to Ireland?

Why is it worse than TM’s deal? Not saying it is but wondering why it might be.

@KoxerGoesToStuttgart

"Do we even know what the deal is?"
Sounds like same as Theresa May's but with Irish backstop removed with N.Ireland staying in UK Customs area with EU checks and procedures at ports and airports and not on the border.
Citizens rights in UK and EU are protected.

Irish leader said he made huge concessions to achieve this. He recommends it.

What Junker said was:
We have concluded a deal. So there is not an argument for delay. It has to be done now.

I gave a brief doorstop with Boris Johnson ... half an hour ago and I was ruling out that there will be any kind of prolongation. If we have a deal, we have a deal, and there is no need for prolongation. That is not only the British view; that is my view too.

Yes. We have a deal. So why should we have a prolongation?

I think what he is saying is quite nuanced. There will not be an extension with this deal. We have a deal so don't need an extension now.

However, if the deal is not passed by parliament, then there is no longer a deal and an extension could be granted for other reasons e.g. GE, new ref etc.

I suspect that what will happen is a second referendum will be attached as an amendment to the deal, and that will pass, which means an extension of six months and the people get the final say, this deal or remain.

Thank you Bluntness for giving me hope. I’d be nigh on ecstatic with this outcome, as no deal would be off the table and I’m convinced that remain would win a second referendum.

it's WA with a border in the sea instead of the backstop and NI as a special economic area.
And Stormont gets to vote on it every 4 years with only a straight majority required to pass it or every 8 years if a majority of both communities support it. And if it doesn't pass in Stormont, a two year period to sort shit out rather than taking it away immediately.

Well that’s impossible because stormont doesn’t currently exist and hasn’t for almost 3 years. How can they write a deal with that provision when the NI assembly hasn’t sat for years? That’s an instant no goer.

Sounds like same as Theresa May's but with Irish backstop removed

How come TM wasn’t able to negotiate this then? Or was it more a case of she didn’t want to?

@JoxerGoesToStuttgart , I rather think that's the point. To incentivise the shifty Cash For Ash feckers to face the music. And probably one of the reasons they aren't happy. They want a DUP veto at the very least.

How can we leave on the 31st when it would be breaking the law?

@wondering7777 , this is pretty much what the EU offered from the start but TM was
a) not Brexit-y enough for Brexiteers to back her
b) too easily swayed by the DUP
c) not Boris-y enough for the Brexiteers because she is a woman.

How can we leave on the 31st when it would be breaking the law?

It’s not breaking the law to leave.

What would breach the Benn Act, would be failing to ask for a further extension in the event of No Deal.

If there’s a deal, or if the EU refuse a further extension, there’s no issue.

@HollowTalk , here's a scenario, Johnson fails to pass the deal on Saturday and ( unless he has some wizard wheeze) asked for an extension as per the Benn Act. The request is turned down because... ffs not you lot again reasons ... we crash out.
Or the deal is agreed therefore the Benn Act falls away.

@wondering7777, May pretty much said there'd be a border in the Irish Sea over her dead body. (Backing the DUP, who had backed her - for a price.)

As recently as July, Johnson said exactly the same thing...

I rather think that's the point. To incentivise the shifty Cash For Ash feckers to face the music. And probably one of the reasons they aren't happy. They want a DUP veto at the very least.

So BJ &co don’t want this deal to pass? They’ve deliberately made it an unpalatable deal for DUP so they won’t vote it through?

Juncker wants the deal to pass. Thus he will support the UK government to pass it, until it doesn't.

Saying that we can have an extension, doesn't help that process. It just means that some MPs would be less likely to vote for Johnson's Deal.

If Johnson's deal fails then the game changes again. In this situation an extension might well be back on the table. But so might no deal too.

The point is that the EU are as keen for this to be resolved as many of us are - its just that they don't have our interests as their primary concern...

"So BJ &co don’t want this deal to pass? They’ve deliberately made it an unpalatable deal for DUP so they won’t vote it through?"

Let's just say they could live with that outcome. Or the outcome where it passes.

We’ll done to all those that tried to block brexit. I don't understand this statement.

I don’t even understand how it’s a legitimate offer. It’s based on something that doesn’t currently exist. They might as well be saying “oh we’ll have invisible fairies to check everyone as they’re driving across the border”. stormont doesn’t exist. How can they even make that proposal?

According to Stella Creasy, the DUP's refusal to back Johnson's deal (so far) is smoke and mirrors - at the ultra-eleventh hour they'll agree, because the government can help them void the abortion/same-sex marriage bills next week

I find that very plausible. Johnson can't afford to be/look like the PM whose legacy was No Deal (and the generations of shit-storms to follow it). He has called Parliament's bluff for weeks but has now manoeuvred things very cleverly to make it look as though others are to blame if No Deal ensues. (He and his mates will still profit from it, without becoming historical pariahs.)

And the EU are happy to oblige because they fear a Corbyn government will embolden others in the EU to vote for Socialism. Or something.