Westminstenders: DUP says no

[TheMShip]

I don't really feel qualified to start a Westminstenders thread but we need a new one....

I honestly think people in favor of Brexit must realize what Mark Carney meant and just be choosing to ignore it.

It's just people making wordclouds of obfuscating ink.

No, Clavinova That 2nd link is just a report by the bank of Ireland
It does not make any predictions for the UK

Ireland has a much higher growth in GDP than the UK, without Brexit
So of course the UK will not have the same growth or loss in absolute terms as Ireland

All the predictions in the 2nd link estimate is the cumulative % loss for each country, compared to if Brexit didn't happen

e.g. just for illustration:
if ireland and the UK both lose 4% growth in year 1,
but Ireland's growth without Brexit would have been 5% and UK's growth would have been 2%,
then Ireland's growth that year would be only 1% and the UK would actually contract 2%

So Ireland and the UK would experience that 4% drop in GDP very differently

You're aiming for clarity, BigChoc, and it's appreciated.

It's going to be interesting watching Ireland being supported through a Brexit-induced recession while we struggle on alone on Hate Island.

Suspect it's going to twist the melons of the more xenophobic Brexiteers.

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

PV vote will only come to floor if both Letwin amendment and deal falls

BigChocFrenzy

My point is that one link suggests a 2% contraction for Ireland (with a Brexit deal) - the other 4% growth - which 'expert' is correct?

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3721330-Westminstenders-Super-Saturday?watched=1
New thread.

FT analysis now suggests 319 MPs could vote for agreement, with 315 against

https://www.ft.com/content/8518dfe6-f1be-11e9-ad1e-4367d8281195

Through patronage, pennies and power, the prime minister sought to get as many MPs on his side as possible ahead of Saturday’s crunch vote on his EU withdrawal agreement.

Analysis by the Financial Times suggests there is now a gossamer-thin majority for Mr Johnson’s deal,
partly thanks to 10 rebel Labour MPs who look set to back it.
....
But many MPs have not made up their minds, and some who have declared their voting intentions could yet change their stance.
...
Mr Johnson spent much of Friday on the phone, focusing his efforts mostly on Conservative MPs, according to Downing Street insiders.

Number 10 officials Danny Kruger and James Wild, meanwhile, reached out to opposition MPs because the Conservatives do not have a Commons majority.

After an intense day of lobbying,
one prime ministerial aide admitted the vote will be “fucking close”.
Another said: “We are all like children in the dark, wandering around not knowing what happens next.”
....
Downing Street took a carrot-and-stick approach with MPs - using a mix of threats and enticements to win over wavering parliamentarians.

Government business managers in the Commons warned Conservative MPs they would have the whip removed if they did not vote for the deal.

But some MPs - including Labour as well as Tories - had money dangled at them for constituency projects.

Vague promises of peerages and honours were made.

.

You don't seem to junderstand what you are reading, Clavinova
and I'm going to bed soon as it is 1 hour later in Germany

Those figures in the 2 links are for different time periods and measure different things

You are wondering why an absolute GDP growth rate for Ireland in 2020 doesn't match a cumulative loss in growth over 10 years

The 1st link comparing the UK and Ireland are cumulative % loss over 10 years, compared to Remain,
but do not state what the absolute figures are

The similar cumulative loss does not mean that the 2 countries have similar GDP loss rates
In fact Ireland - and probably UK some years - would actually experience growth, but this is less than with Remain

e.g. if your annual pay rise is cut from 2% to 1% for 10 years, then your income would increase by over 10% (cba to calculate cumulative rate) but you have lost over 10% compared to not having a cut

The 2nd link gives Ireland a 4% growth rate in 2020 with an October deal, but this is still lower than if ther were Remain
It does not give a 10 year prediction

Is anyone else not bothered by the Letwin amendment? If the deal is voted through then it does feel a bit pointless.

You don't seem to understand what you are reading, Clavinova

Oh, I was enjoying myself.

I think the Letwin amendment will mean that there will be a delay before a vote happens? Am I right. That's what I just heard on Newsnight, anyway.

They said that Oliver Letwin actually wants to vote for the New deal but thinks it's too rushed and that MPs should have longer to scrutinize it.

I think the Letwin amendment will mean that there will be a delay before a vote happens? Am I right. That's what I just heard on Newsnight, anyway.

Ah ok. So good if it does get through, but it sounds like it will just delay the inevitable.

On Newsnight the view was that a delay of 2 weeks (which I think is what it will be ...?) might make a big difference.

They said that at the moment there is panic and momentum etc In two weeks anything could happen. There might be outbreaks of violence in Ireland for example. And also MPs will have a lot longer to look at the deal and find fault with it.

So a delay could be a good thing.

Thanks Dusty. Let’s just hope the deal is voted down so the Letwin amendment is an irrelevance anyway!

I turned Newsnight off when Ann Widdicombe's gormless face appeared on screen!

@thecatfromjapan
I can't wait for the first Brexiteer to start whinging that the EU is supporting/helping Ireland and why not us....... because.... you know.....GB is exceptional don't you know........🙄

Well, great news – No Deal has been stopped, so no need for Corbyn and his coterie of loonies to seize power.

Huzzah!!

Cos that's what's really important.

Though I note you use the phrase 'seize power' - full marks for trying, CendrillonSings.
What exactly do you envision?
Barricades?
Pitchforks?
Sans culottes rampaging around in deepest, darkest Surrey?

Will add 'seize power' to the Bingo list.

I feel sorry for Cendrillon, she clearly has a life threatening illness and expects to die in the next 5 years. Add to that she expects a Corbyn gov at the next election and for Corbyn to implement every single policy with immediate effect. That shows how efficient she secretly thinks Labour can be.

Of course it's all about her though, not her kids. If she bothered to ask them whether they wanted themselves and their children to grow up in a country with no NHS, food with no nutrients but added chemicals, workers stretched to the bone with no maternity leave and the increase in homeless and climate change that follows slashing regulations, I very much doubt they would jump for joy and tell her what a wonderful world she is making; Best Mummy Ever!

I'm up. Urgh. Too early on a Saturday.

We are gonna need a new thread for this morning methinks.

We're already over a 100 posts into the new one @PotterHead1985

I can't wait for the first Brexiteer to start whinging that the EU is supporting/helping Ireland and why not us.......

Why didn't my italics work? Sulk, sulk.

Too many ... Peregrina!