Westminstenders: DUP says no

[TheMShip]

I don't really feel qualified to start a Westminstenders thread but we need a new one....

The PV amendment could do that, if it is called tomorrow

The PV amendment could do that, if it is called tomorrow

Thanks - how likely is it to be called?

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

It is ironic that Boris Johnson’s hopes of glory and passing a deal rely on the loyalty of lots of MPs like Theresa May, whose support is completely unquestioned and unquestionable,

a sort of loyalty he never showed her and which no one assumed he would.

The funny thing is, of anyone, Theresa May would have most justification for voting the new deal down,
given she said that a border down the Irish Sea is something no British prime minister of government could ever countenance.

The forecasts I've seen - after transition - would bring Ireland to about zero growth for 1-2 years, before it recovers

But your link is a 10 year forecast;

"We have also calculated how the scenarios would affect income per capita in other countries...The reduction in Ireland’s income per capita is comparable in size to the UK effect...Ireland is the worst-affected EU country because of its high share of trade with the UK."

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

Am hearing the second ref/PV amendment, which was thought to have been deferred, might well be being tabled tomorrow after all...

What do you expect Ireland to do? It can't prevent the UK from Brexiting, all it can do is try and limit the damage.

Just seen that someone’s tweeted Jeremy Hunt, expressing the hope that he’ll be working hard tomorrow: “After all, Saturday’s just another day, isn’t it?!”

What do you expect Ireland to do?

Nothing - I don't believe the forecasts are correct for the UK or Ireland.

Clavinova I was referring to another report I've seen, which was in fact estimating the effects of No Deal on Ireland
It was from the Bank of Ireland, iirc, but too sleepy to dig it out now

The WA would not be as bad as No Deal

This 10-year forecast looks purely at trade, but does not take into account the EU rescue package - because that is too difficult to quantify

If you mean Brexit damages Ireland too, yes it does
However, since Varadkar cannot stop Brexit, he has to chose the least damaging option he can and avoid No Deal

and as I said, with their higher GDP growth, that cumulative loss for ireland means growth slowed or was stationary for a couple of years

whereas the Uk starting from much lower growth would go into prolonged recession with the same % loss

On what basis do you disbelieve ?

I can estimate the EU rescue / investment package will help Ireland to some extent, but that can't possibly compensate for everything

Who will rescue the UK ?
I hope you don't think Trump will give us a 200 billion or so rescue package because of the special relationship

The cumulative loss in GDP since the ref for the UK is estimated at 60-70 billion quid, compared to the estimated GDP growth if Remain had won the referendum
and business hadn't cut back investment etc

So far, it hasn't hit Ireland's GDP, because firms are cutting back investment or pulling out there.
However, after the trnsition, trade will be hit

So far, it hasn't hit Ireland's GDP, because firms are NOT cutting back investment or pulling out there.

I’ve had a SHIT of a day at the end of a SHIT of a week (I’m walking towards home now, having left around 13 hours ago) but I suddenly had a cheery thought.
If the deal passes tomorrow, we’re not going to hear from Frottage ever again, and he’s going to lose his EU salary too.
I hope they cut his pension as well (oooops, admin error...sue via the ECoJ, if you want...)

Mark Carney seems reasonably optimistic;

"Bank of England Governor Mark Carney welcomed the Brexit deal reached by Prime Minister Boris Johnson this week, saying it could lead to a pick up in economic growth."

'Good News' for UK;
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-18/carney-says-johnson-reaching-brexit-deal-is-good-news-for-u-k

That's a point, cherin

So far, it hasn't hit Ireland's GDP, because firms are NOT cutting back investment or pulling out there.

The 10 year forecast you linked to is a nonsense then.

I've just found the latest Bank of Ireland forecast for No Deal ôn 31 October - they haven't published one for the WA yet

They've no reason to talk down their own country's economy

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/1011/1082492-central-bank-forecast/

The bank believes the worst impact will be felt in the early part of next year.
It expects disruption to trade at ports and the imposition of tariffs to hit exporters, particularly in the agri-food sector.
.....
(2020) Economic growth will be reduced to just 0.8%, but the underlying position of the economy will slip into recession
...
However, the bank does forecast that the economy will begin to recover in 2021, but warns Brexit will have a long-term impact.

Clavinova That is for a forecast AFTER Brexit

• which hasn't happened yet !

The UK has already lost GDP due to the referendum decison, but Ireland won't until AFTER Brexit

Clavinova, it looks as though Brexit is going to happen.

Now is the moment you need to stop dismissing negative economic consequences as 'Project Fear' & pivot to expectation-management.

That is, you have to start saying things like, 'Oh, it will be bumpy but .'

You can bin the dismissing consequences thing now. It doesn't matter.

Carney is saying the WA is good news because it is better than No Deal - NOT that it is better than Remain

The WA would be an end to immediate uncertainty,
because investors have been holding back in case No Deal happens on 3 October - which is still possible, but now unlikely

With the WA, businesses would have at least the transition period before Brexit, so at least until 1 January 2021 with full EU trading benefits,
maybe even until 1 Jan 2023 if the govt extends transition

Of course most businesses - except hedge-funders & co - would prefer Remain
but a WA at least avoids No Deal and postpones the main damage of Brexit

The Brexiters own economist, Prof Patrick Minford, predicted that a WTO Brexit would wipe out mass manufacturing and mass farming in the UK,
which employ about 8% of the workforce,

but that it would apparently be all worth it because of services. Or something

Carney is saying the WA is good news because it is better than No Deal - NOT that it is better than Remain

I was going to type this but then I thought it cannot actually be true that any follower of politics and economic affairs doesn't realize this.
And I lost the will to move my fingers over the keyboard.
Business will always prefer certainty to uncertainty, even if the certainty is bad news.

Sorry if I insulted anyone's intelligence

I've just found the latest Bank of Ireland forecast for No Deal on 31 October-they haven't published one for the WA yet

Your second link contradicts your first link;

"Our current projection is that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the economy would expand by 0.8% in 2020, as opposed to 4.3% if a deal can be agreed."

The UK can expect its economy to expand by 4% as well then?

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

The iron rule of Brexit, the only rule, is that if the actors can defer a decision and buy themselves more time,
to put off the moment where someone definitely loses, they will.

On that basis success of the Letwin amendment has to be a dead cert.

@BigChocFrenzy
Sorry that wasn't what I meant 😦.
I honestly think people in favor of Brexit must realize what Mark Carney meant and just be choosing to ignore it.