Westminstenders: DUP says no

[TheMShip]

I don't really feel qualified to start a Westminstenders thread but we need a new one....

queenofthorns
You are in the bristle gang

My joy of a MP has gone from being a Remain supporter pre ref to putting the boot to the BBC. Murdoch finally being paid back for supporting BJ. and lending him a lavish pad after Carrie temporarily kicked him out is my guess.

www.theguardian.com/media/2019/oct/16/nicky-morgan-open-minded-about-bbc-licence-fee-future

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/19/boris-johnson-uses-sky-executives-townhouse-as-campaign-hq

@Oakenbeach It's not actually approving the deal. It means that the WAIB and other legislation has to go through before approval is granted. They would do this by making the 'activation' of the WAIB and other required implementation legislation contingent on the WA being approved, then pass the WAIB+others, then approve the WA. Basically it changes the sequencing.

There may be other forces ahead. Just saying.

We are not out of the woods at all now, not at all.

@Outsomnia You say that, and I want to sing, "There may be trouble ahead ..."

Thank you listening . Proud to be in the bristles

Hey. Anyone able to give me a quick bullet point brief about what's going on? Busy new mum here and can't keep up.
All I know is there might be a deal? Will it be voted for do you think?

I'm not alone I see in having a prickle of anxiety about tomorrow.
Take care all of you, and bristles forward!

@TheMShip

Thank you for the clarification. BJ can’t be happy
about that!

I’ll be there. Will visit the shop next door after my shift to buy a red toothbrush and head up.

Great job @TheMShip btw

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall
A bit of fatalism doing the rounds among Lab MPs tonight who think BJ might have cracked enough of their colleagues to get the numbers. BUT huge Lab whipping operation today. They’ve proved v effective in the past, esp last minute on MV3. Don’t bet against them doing same again.

I think I read somewhere (?state broadcaster) about votes being at around 2.30pm. That seems a long time for debate prior to votes. I've promised mini bercows the iPad whilst I watch so he thinks it's Christmas bless him.

I would like to thank all those marching tomorrow too and ask them to take care. I wish I could be there with you waving my flag. Instead it is flying from the window.

9:30am Saturday House of Commons convenes. First Saturday sitting since the Falklands War.

Two motions have been tabled by the government. The government may choose to move one, both, or neither of these. Amendments have been tabled for both motions. The Speaker will select which of these will be debated.

Motion 1. That this house approves the BJ deal.

Amendments:
a. Letwin (former Conservative, co-signatories across opposition parties). House has considered the matter but withholds approval unless and until implementing legislation is passed.
b. MacNeil (SNP). Revoke.
c. Blackford (SNP). Does not approve deal, ask for extension to 31 Jan 2020 for purpose of GE.

Motion 2. That this house approves leaving without a deal on 31 Oct 2019.

Amendments.

Kyle-Wilson (Labour, co-signatories across opposition parties). Rejects leaving without a deal and supports a confirmatory referendum on any deal.

The schedule begins with a statement from the PM, then questions on that statement. Motion 1 expected to be moved after that, then the Speaker announces which amendments have been selected.

From the Guardian www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/18/brexit-super-saturday-will-the-deal-pass (do read the full article, it's a good explainer):

The number of amendments will affect the length of the process, so the key vote could come any time from mid-afternoon to early evening. If the government loses the vote, the prime minister could then seek a vote on leaving without a deal, which is the only other way to avoid the so-called Benn Act – the backbench-created law that would compel Johnson to seek a Brexit extension if his deal is not passed or no deal is not approved.

The government may choose to move one, both, or neither of these.

I should clarify - it's a certainty that the gov't will move Motion 1 (to approve the deal). Motion 2 will most likely only be moved if Motion 1 is defeated.

I agree: great job Mship!

Christ, if it takes all day I might have to break out the emergency Valium. It's for my seized up back but needs must..

I loved that one of the Cons asked fart-fogg if the amenities would be open as normal tomorrow. Basically can we still get subsidised food and booze seeing as we've got to be here? I shouted at the tv "bring a picnic you wanker!" and felt much better for it. Honestly.

Farage exhorting MPs for No Deal

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall

Farage: “I’d say to some of those MPs thinking about what to do tonight.
Don’t make the same mistake as those who went before you did at Maastricht.
Be heroes and vote this deal down.”

Farage: “I’d rather have a short extension than have a treaty which binds us into years of acrimony.
If we have a short extension we can have a general election.

MShip I thought the PV amendment would be for Motion 1, the BJ WA

Interesting 🤔
Farage deflated by a possible BJ WA ?

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall

I’ve been to a lot of Brexit Party rallies.

This is definitely the most deflated

BigChocFrenzy
Economic impact 10 years after: BJ's deal lies between May's WA and No Deal:
ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/The-economic-impact-of-Boris-Johnsons-Brexit-proposals.pdf

Goodness knows why Leo Varadkar is happy with BJ's deal (or May's WA) - your link shows the economic impact on the Republic of Ireland almost mirror's that of the UK - page 8. Doesn't Varadkar believe in 'expert' opinions either?

Clavinova Varadkar / Ireland want to avoid No Deal and no NI border

Naturally, they would rather Remain, but since that was not on offer, Varadkar accepted May's WA and now accepted BJ's

Of course, unlike the UK, they would receive massive economic support from the other 450 million people in the EU

The UK could choose to Remain and avoid all that damage, but Varadkar has no means to force Remain on the UK

Looks like a disaster for Ireland if you believe the forecast.

The model doesn't include the countering effects of the EU rescue package for Ireland

Even without, it's damaging, but not disastrous, because of the different starting points and the likely aid:

Ireland's GDP growth atm is much higher than the UK's, about 4%, iirc,
compared to under 2% for the UK

The forecasts I've seen - after transition - would bring Ireland to about zero growth for 1-2 years, before it recovers
However, the Uk would have a sharp fall in GDP and a prolonged recession

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall

Worth taking a step back to consider how the rest of the world views all of this.

Here is an editorial from Norwegian paper @Aftenposten this week:

“The UK is like a football team relegated to the second division stubbornly claiming they still belong in the champions league.”

‪**@Aftenposten**‬
‪“The irony is that the United Kingdom is perishing because of exaggerated ideas of its own grandeur. ‬
‪It is a downfall worthy of an empire.”‬

“Be heroes and vote this deal down.”

Probably the only time I’ll ever agree with Nigel Farage (for very different reasons of course).

The Letwin amendment isn’t exactly important in terms of stopping Brexit then. Will there be any amendments that we can get excited about which could really put a spanner in the works for Leave?