Westminstenders: Showdown

[RedToothBrush]

Big week ahead.

Johnson has until Tuesday Afternoon to get his shit together for the EU.

He thinks it can be down, but still lots to do in that time.

This week we have the Queen's Speech too, which is going to be misused as a party political broadcast.

Remember if the government can't pass the QS, there's a crisis that gets generated as a direct result. Sticking in proposals that any liberal or leftie will struggle with, is deliberately provoking a crisis of that nature. A proposal of that type would have to be anti democratic in nature, like... Ermmm... Voter ID. Hell, well what do you know.

Johnson is still after his election because as it stands he's a passenger stuck in the runaway train of his own creation.

Talk of a deal breakthrough is still overstated too. The DUP and many of the usual ERG suspects have poured water on the idea. And many on the opposition benches are pushing hard on a confirmary ref being needed for a deal - they don't have the numbers yet, but talk is that they are close. We also have loyalist military making threats about an Irish Sea Border solution.

Time for Project Shit Meets Fan.

Flouncy, it won't go straight to the Supreme Court, so no Lady Hale for now!

DH is just getting us some apple crumble. It's not going to be as big as my head though! 😂

I bet bozo doesn't even know about that cross border act.

It's all got very confusing.

So It's looking like the EU are using BJ's silly deadline against him with a take-it-or-leave-it offer.

Quite what Arlene and Frawnswah will make of his magic beans, we shall see.

To continue with the Boy Wonder fest:

May-Be-Ev-Ery-Thing's Gonna Be Alright:

If the DUP accept this deal ( or actually even if they don't) I hope they are never in a position of any power ever again in NI or anywhere else. Their venality, under the anti -choice, bigoted cloak of supposed Christian morality, knows no bounds.

I had already seen those Scottish polls - which I why I mentioned "between the rare Scotland only surveys"

Given that the SNP haven't been campaigning explicitly (beyond ongoing canvassing) - the "All Under One Banner" demonstrations are a coming together of different Indy supporting organisations (as the name suggests ) - I'll take 50:50 support. In 2012, before the Indyref campaign, it was only c35%, iirc.

"It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."

Not sure how they'll get out of that one at lightning speed in order to get this WA or whatever this deal is called through.

Well, I'm going on the march on Saturday. If only to protest this crap Deal.

I'm hoping it will give the Labour 'rebels' pause for thought.
🤷‍♀️

And good luck to Jo Maugham.

bercow A quick bill to repeal the previous one, maybe built into the WA bill itself

Having a bit of a 'stick my fingers in my ears and shout LALALALA!' day today. Doesn't seem to have affected 'developments' much

Gatherings taking place from 8 pm this evening in N of I.

twitter.com/OrfhlaithBegley

" West Tyrone MP @OrfhlaithBegley on the Strabane/Lifford border urging people to join #BCAB4EU rallies at border locations. There is no good Brexit. #NoBorisBorder"

Sky News showed clips of Stephen Kinnock and Philip Hammond sounding more likely to not support the deal. The journalist Sam Coates predicted that the numbers may not be there for the deal from Labour and the Tory MPs who had the whip removed. I think there has been so much focus on the DUP and ERG that these groups have not been discussed much today.

Has the queen's speech been voted on yet?

Also, Sam Coates said even if the DUP and ERG support this deal there needs to be 20 votes from Labour or those Tory MPs who had the whip removed. It's going to be tight.

Time No vote on QS yet afaik
They normally debate it for about 5 days

I can imagine the level of focus and attention today in the HoC ;-)

Was just going to post the Sam Coates thread

Sam Coates Sky@samcoatessky
Tonight Sky News has looked at the Commons numbers - and it’s going to be very challenging for Boris Johnson to get a brexit deal through

• The government needs 320 votes for a deal

Here’s our assumptions

Brexit deal Commons numbers 2

• We assume the DUP (without whom there is no deal) and the ERG (who will largely take their cue from the DUP) all vote WITH the government. This gives Johnson 297 votes of the 320

• Obviously some ERG (Owen Paterson?) may not back it

Brexit deal Commons numbers 3

What of the 21 Tories who lose whip?

• Guto Bebb told Sky tonight (in VT above) he won’t vote for it and 6-8 others of that group won’t
• Philip Hammond told Sky he probably won’t either
• Some of the 21 think up to 12 won’t vote for it

Brexit deal Commons numbers 4

What of 19 Labour MPs who signalled they cd back a deal

• Meeting with Danny Kruger Political Secretary “went badly”
• No10 unwilling to look at replicating many of the concessions Theresa May made
• Stephen Kinnock told Sky of saying not supporting

Brexit deal Commons numbers conclusion:

It’s already really hard for Boris Johnson to get a deal thru - and could get worse

Perhaps today was the closest to a brexit deal in this Parliament will ever have got.... 🥶

If there is a deal to vote on and they reject it, what happens next?

Thanks for sharing that tweet from Sam Coates, it's what he was saying on Sky News. I don't think the numbers are there for a second referendum either so then what ????

I am a remainer.
I do NOT want Boris to get a deal. I want him to own all the shit that is coming his way when he has to write that letter. I want him to know that if he had spent the time since becoming PM working towards a deal he may have got a deal. Instead he spent it bull shitting and causing havoc. This is his mess and finally there is no one but him upon whom it falls. I know he will try to blame everyone else but he is the PM, he is in charge and you can delegate authority but not RESPONSIBILITY (as my old skipper used to say).

And breathe ...

It has to be an extension and a GE? Surely?

But nothing is as it seems in today's UK politics

@BirdandSparrow, if the vote against a deal (and I am using that word very loosely, where Johnson is concerned), then the Benn bill compels the Government to ask for an extension. At which point, the EU will go: "why?".

A crash-out Brexit is still the default, although the EU will probably allow another extension in order to accommodate a General Election.

TBH, even if the EU pulls a unicorn out of the hat, the Government would still need to ask for an extension, just to deal with all the legal argy-bargy.

I look forward to seeing Johnson in a ditch in November, preferably near Heathrow.