Westminstenders: Showdown

[RedToothBrush]

Big week ahead.

Johnson has until Tuesday Afternoon to get his shit together for the EU.

He thinks it can be down, but still lots to do in that time.

This week we have the Queen's Speech too, which is going to be misused as a party political broadcast.

Remember if the government can't pass the QS, there's a crisis that gets generated as a direct result. Sticking in proposals that any liberal or leftie will struggle with, is deliberately provoking a crisis of that nature. A proposal of that type would have to be anti democratic in nature, like... Ermmm... Voter ID. Hell, well what do you know.

Johnson is still after his election because as it stands he's a passenger stuck in the runaway train of his own creation.

Talk of a deal breakthrough is still overstated too. The DUP and many of the usual ERG suspects have poured water on the idea. And many on the opposition benches are pushing hard on a confirmary ref being needed for a deal - they don't have the numbers yet, but talk is that they are close. We also have loyalist military making threats about an Irish Sea Border solution.

Time for Project Shit Meets Fan.

I wonder how quickly the new UK workers non-rights will be adapted

www.dailymail.co.uk/money/bills/article-7576605/The-Smart-Meter-snoopers-homes-tracking-energy-habits.html

Meanwhile, another firm has created a product that allows bosses to keep tabs on staff without their consent. In one instance, a bakery boss could tell that an employee hadn't turned up for work because an oven wasn't on when it should have been.

continuing on the theme upthread, looks like we could see a new generation of companies that would rather spunk £1,000,000 in introducing employee-snooping tech, than £100,000 on improved wages and conditions.

LDem leader Swinson has tabled an amendment to the QS that any WA is put to a PV

If selected by Brecow, voting on this amendment would show whether there is now a majority for a PV
If not .... time for another strategy

LDem leader Swinson has tabled an amendment to the QS that any WA is put to a PV

Labours policy you mean right BCF? Since last year sometime irc

A deal today? TODAY??? Have they got Boris at gunpoint?

a new generation of companies that would rather spunk £1,000,000 in introducing employee-snooping tech, than £100,000 on improved wages and conditions

Sadly it's not new. DH is a chef and has had many years and jobs of owners showing off new sparkly gadgets that are fun to buy, while paying a pittance and demanding more hours.

I totally second where you are coming from.

LDem leader Swinson has tabled an amendment to the QS that any WA is put to a PV

I hope she specified that remain would be the other option ... otherwise she just tabled an amendment for a W.A vs No deal ref.

New citizenship IQ test question revealed.

It might be a deal with the EU, but if the DUP and part of ERG won't play ball, they'd be looking to Labour to get it over the line, and I just can't see that. Corbyn has downplayed the idea of whipping against a BJ WA, but I think he's hoping for the Tory party to take it down itself, without further rupturing the Labour party. If it's tight, though, I suspect he'll whip.

Is it too early for gin?

Any Labour MP that votes for this should lose the whip

I'm back on the MN HFLC Boot Camp so no alcohol for two weeks ....and the comfort eating has to stop

I've got some pork scratchings if things get really bad

As much as I would like the referendum to be repeated, under fair circumstances, with the right information, etc., I think I would personally have a break down going through more weeks of campaigning.
My neighbour is a UKIP voter, fortunalty I don't really have an accent, so he can't tell that I'm not British. I guess otherwise I would have burning poop on my door step.

BercowsFlyingFlamingo

CendrillonSings has been very quiet these last couple of days. "You say it best, when you say nothing at all."

I wasn't going to bother posting, but since you're clearly missing me so much...

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 37% (+2)
LAB: 22% (-)
LDEM: 18% (-2)
BREX: 11% (-1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 09 Oct

4:00 am - 16 Oct 2019

That's a 15 point lead. If Boris gets his deal (and probably even if he doesn't), Labour should head back to their constituencies and prepare for extinction...

By the way, you know how the mantra on here was that a responsible person should do literally anything to avoid No Deal? Well, voting for Boris' deal would certainly achieve that goal, wouldn't it?

The problem with whipping against a deal is the BJ can then claim he wanted a deal but Parliament blocked it again to try and frustrate Brexit. Also, what is the point of the EU agreeing an extension if all their work on a deal keeps getting voted down.

There will be no legal text ready for this EUCO,
so the most Barnier will be able to tell the heads of govt is that a WA has been in principle - if it indeed has

More likely, since in EUCO he doesn't need to dress it up for the media:

he'll tell them that there's no real agreement between the 2 sides,but that - if they wish - he'll continue negotiations in the hope that something can be reached eventually
.... and that it will need at least another 3 months, maybe more.

Lead article on the Times app - from midday today - says negotiations at stalemate because
1/ EU insisting on level playing field regs
2/ DUP refusing the consent mechanism.

"EU insisting on level playing field regs"

Hooray, even though it would reduce the number of ERG MPs who would vote for a deal

Polls

Both main parties are shitting themselves because there is such a wide range in the polls:

The group of pollsters that include YouGov have a huge Tory lead;
the group that include ComRes are in hung Parliament territory

Also, results vary hugely depending on whether the GE is held after Brexit,
or after an extension & no Brexit

• the parties may be about neck and neck in the latter case

Conservative leaflets obtained by the BBC suggest the party accepts the UK might not have left the EU by the time it has to fight an election.

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50029635

"Voting for Boris' deal would certainly achieve that goal, wouldn't it? "

If he ever gets a WA, then it would be an issue
Until then .....

From the Times, BCF.

“France and Germany lead a camp of EU countries who fear that Mr Johnson is seeking a minimal free-trade agreement after Brexit to begin a competitive “race to the bottom” on standards. “We will not accept a Singapore in the North Sea,” said an official.”

I was concerned they’d already jettisoned this red line on the basis that no agreement that contained it would get through the ERG. But I suppose with it included then more Labour MPs will be tempted to vote it through?

Is Johnson going to pretend he’s doing all the right things to get ERG and DUP onside, to keep them fairly quiet, then at last minute dump the lot of them and swing to seeking Labour support?

It seems like everyone is saying something different to keep us confused and on our toes.

From Bruno Waterfield in Brussels:

Hiccups in the Brexit talks which could go to the wire as late 5.30pm or so. Best case scenario is political agreement at #EUCO which means Brexit almost certainly will not happen on Oct 31

"It can only be political agreement. We have not seen texts and done legal scrubbing. We will need more time for that," said a senior EU dip
Draft withdrawal treaty text will then need checking by customs authorities & EU/national teams of lawyers needing a technical extension

"Too late to give a formal yes tomorrow. We can give a political yes and then come back to it,"
More differences there are between new text and Feb 2018 version of the EU's NI-only backstop then longer Brexit delay. Germans have estimated "some 2 more months"

Before doing legal legwork, EU will want a positive indicative vote in HoC
"If a deal, we need Sat sitting of Commons to show support," he said. "The most important thing is Sat and that is the one we can least predict."

So #EUCO likely to big up historic setting in HoC as key moment. If MPs agree, then shorter technical extension to scrub deal up. If a No then a longer extension for a GE or referendum

Both main parties are shitting themselves because there is such a wide range in the polls

Given the massive uncertainty, polls are an even less reliable measure of how people will vote in a GE. If a pollster asked me how I would vote in a GE, i would answer “don’t know” because we don’t know what the situation will be by the weekend, let alone by the election. A week ago, when staring down the barrel of no-deal I’d probably have said LD.

My vote will depend a lot on what happens with the “deal” and how the other parties respond to that. I don’t imagine I’m the only one.