Westminstenders: Showdown

[RedToothBrush]

Big week ahead.

Johnson has until Tuesday Afternoon to get his shit together for the EU.

He thinks it can be down, but still lots to do in that time.

This week we have the Queen's Speech too, which is going to be misused as a party political broadcast.

Remember if the government can't pass the QS, there's a crisis that gets generated as a direct result. Sticking in proposals that any liberal or leftie will struggle with, is deliberately provoking a crisis of that nature. A proposal of that type would have to be anti democratic in nature, like... Ermmm... Voter ID. Hell, well what do you know.

Johnson is still after his election because as it stands he's a passenger stuck in the runaway train of his own creation.

Talk of a deal breakthrough is still overstated too. The DUP and many of the usual ERG suspects have poured water on the idea. And many on the opposition benches are pushing hard on a confirmary ref being needed for a deal - they don't have the numbers yet, but talk is that they are close. We also have loyalist military making threats about an Irish Sea Border solution.

Time for Project Shit Meets Fan.

this WA would enable a v hard Brexit and then a bonfire of regulations and also the welfare state

if you're right it's still not the end. British citizens can live in Northern Ireland, so can continue to enjoy European workers' and consumer rights. Hope NI is ready for an influx.

requires Labour to win the next GE and get a 5-year term to negotiate this deal yes to Labour government but they wouldn't need 5 years to negotiate to stay in the SM and CU, it would effectively be a continuation of transition. It would come down to how much it cost. I suppose that could take 5 years to discuss, but unlikely.

The danger would come if another right wing Tory government came to power in the next 10 years. How easy would it be for them to walk away from the EEA/CU/SM?

Even if a deal comes back to the house on Saturday and is agreed they will need to secure an extension to allow time to it to go through the process to be put into law.

Otherwise, therein lies another trap along the lines of 'oh dear we agreed a deal but we've had all sorts of bother getting it through the two houses so now we've run out of time'

Paul Brand
(@PaulBrandITV)
NEW: Understand civil service chief Sir Mark Sedwill has advised No10 that it would be virtually impossible to hold an election this year any later than 12th Dec. After that practicalities are horrendous - school halls etc booked up for Christmas so no space for polling booths.

Oops missed the second part:

Alain Tolhurst
(@Alain_Tolhurst)
Realistically that means a vote under FTPA before October 24. Doesn't seem very likely, in which case we could be waiting until February-ish for the election t.co/24fLGSwBkE

in which case we could be waiting until February-ish for the election

Does delay help or hinder Plan Boris ?

With crash out? Hinders, I think.

In immediate terms, it means that a 31 Jan extension isn't long enough for a GE if the extension isn't granted till after the 24th. Which may be the case if the Benn act is court tested.

TBH I hope that something is resolved by close of Parliament on Saturday night
because the whole country is holding its breath at the moment - nobody is spending money etc etc etc
and three more months of this fence sitting will utterly cripple the real economy.

I'm spending LQ! :)
I bought a new winter coat last week. And a new tablet. And a candle holder.
I think I'm at the "fuck it" stage now though...

Hooo I bought a new winter coat too. But I'm about to go on the annual pre Christmas minimalist purge...

Peston is reporting that BJ really is going to send a second letter with the extension request letter specified by the Benn act.

I get anxious, and angry. Lie awake thinking of it. My family all voted leave. It's my mum's birthday next month and I'm hesitant to book us a break somewhere in case the SHTF and there's finance or logistics issues.

Guardian reporting breakthrough and Johnson concessions on Irish border.

Boris Johnson appears to be on the brink of reaching a Brexit deal after making major concessions to EU demands over the Irish border.

A draft treaty could now be published on Wednesday morning, according to senior British and EU sources.

It is understood that the negotiating teams have agreed in principle that there will be a customs border down the Irish Sea. The arrangement was rejected by Theresa May as a deal that no British prime minister could accept.

Johnson will still have to win over parliament – including the Democratic Unionist party and the hardline Tory Brexiters, the European Research Group – on the basis that Northern Ireland will still legally be within the UK’s customs territory.

"they wouldn't need 5 years to negotiate to stay in the SM and CU, it would effectively be a continuation of transition"

NO

What we want would be similar to transition, BUT
we would no longer be in the EU, hence no longer in the Lisbon treaty that defines it all
There would need to be a completely new trade deal

We'd probably need a 3rd EEA pillar (since EFTA don't want us)
As a guide, Norway is in the SM, but additionally has about 100 separate bilateral trade deals with the EU to make it work - and they don't even have frictionless trade
Our economy is far more complex

Estimates by people with experience in trade deals is that it would take about 3 years, IFF all sides knew what they wanted, much longer if anyone is awkward.

However, afterwards, it would be a trade treaty, so about 38 national & regional parliaments plus the EP would have to ratify,
which could take 2 more years

The big question is the level playing field - how much has the EU conceded on that, for Ireland ?

Any WA is just the start of years of negotiation on the future trade deal, whatever it is

The parties would probably go into a GE each promising to negotiate a different kind of deal

Nick Gutteridge
(@nick_gutteridge)
Barnier told EU27 ministers today that unless the UK accepts stronger Level Playing Field provisions than Japan has it can't get a comparable FTA, because its market size/proximity would make that too risky. Diplomats say UK asking for looser LPF than included in EU-Canada FTA.

October 15, 2019
Nick Gutteridge
(@nick_gutteridge)
This has a knock-on effect on how the EU now sees talks over a fix for the Irish border - they're negotiating something permanent, not temporary. A source says: 'For the first time we're no longer considering this as a bridge to the future. This will now become the solution.'

Tony Connelly:

BREAKING: Taoiseach says gap is "still quite wide," particularly on the issue of customs.

WTFOver
Book a nice dinner rather than a break somewhere
Or go somewhere in the UK and a meal or three
Even leavers deserve good food but it has to be British eg razor clams

"Second Letter" gambit unlikely to impress Lady Hale and her coven of judges.

"Sources" giving a range of estimates of WA chances !


Peter Foster@pmdfoster

Yes. Per my report this morning, and subsequently (at risk of getting ahead of ourselves) am having/hearing similarly upbeat conversations.


Javier Espinoza@JavierespFT

A lot of chatter in the EU bubble of a possible Brexit deal coming through as early as Tuesday.

Mujtaba Rahmann@Mij*_Europe

So I hate to be a #Brexitt^ downer.

But signals I am getting this morning from very well placed EU sources is much, much more cautious.

Odds of a deal this week - basically zero.

Odds of a deal by 31 October? "1%".

Why? For all the improved atmospherics, substance is BIG problem 1/

Ideally Boris and chums would love to be able to present an empty box to the EU (and parliament) as a "deal" and have it approved unseen, only to whip off the wrapping and see cake-and-eat-it.

Which might work if you are the U S , but the UK just doesn't have that clout.

I really wonder if there are US advisors behind all of this who still struggle with that tricky notion "the rest of the world" ?

DG The EU don't accept that from the US either - these are the #1 and #2 world economic superpowers wrt GDP
(until China & India overtake both)

A big reason why Trump and his big Bizz backers want to destroy the EU:
so they can deal with individual nations they can push around again,
instead of another economic superpower that is on equal terms in trade negotiations

<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=mobile.twitter.com/Mij_Europe" target="_blank">Mujtaba Rahmann<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=mobile.twitter.com/Mij_Europe" target="_blank">@Mij_Europe

First point. EU capitals continue to see the risk of a NEGATIVE surprise.
"We should not forget that all this is viewed in No10 through the next election & unity of the party.
Everything else is secondary."
Officials believe that if Boris or Cummings believe it's better to 2/

change tack again, they could do that quickly.
Events of the past week have shown "they don't mind breaking rules or destroying relationships if need be."
So EU capitals are mindful of this.
Second: while noises out of Bxl & TF50 are positive, substance remains a challenge. 3/

So is mood music positive because no one wants to be responsible for a breakdown?
"The issues are damn complicated."
View on EU side remains that if you don't use 2018 BS text it gets very difficult to find workable technical & legal solutions.
One senior EU official says 4/

"This is easy at levels of abstraction between BJ and the Taoiseach.
But to all answers TF50 is asking, the UK has no answer."
Lots of sense of deja-vu.
That @DavidGHFrost & @SteveBarclay are repeating conversations had with the previous negotiating team in 2018.
Another 5/

official says "Good intentions are no good. We need a legally robust text."
The discussions I've had suggest a deal at the Council is basically zero.
"Can @MichelBarnier report substantial progress?
At the moment not."
Most likely outcome seems to be one whereby Council will 6/

give Barnier instruction to keep negotiating.
Perhaps another Council at end of month as I've argued for some time.
But folks I'm talking to - well placed - even sceptical a deal can be done by 31 Oct.
So we're looking at full implementation of Benn Act & 3 month A50 extension 7/

On @LeoVaradkar & @BorisJohnson meet:
"Neither leader can give us any indication of how it works."
So UK is legally in UK CU, but administratively in EU CU but "on paper you have to be clear, and then it becomes difficult.
When you put it down legally NI is either in or out 8/

and then it gets hard for DUP and the Tories."
Effectively, this is a customs & regulatory border in the Irish Sea "with all the consequences for GB" this carries.
So deal is technically doable; on basis of 2018 backstop text.
But then politics in London begins to look v diff 9/

"We fail to see that the political conditions have changed so dramatically so everything that wasn't possible for May is possible for Johnson."
DUP holds key - then a chain reaction with ERG and need to counteract loss with Labour rebels.
My chats suggest Labour numbers 10/

could be in 5-10 range.
Ministers took heart when 19 Lab backbenchers called for 2016 ref to be honoured "without delay."
But does not mean the 19 will vote for any deal.
BOTTOM LINE: a very BIG note of caution.
Many on EU side still see delay as much more likely than deal ENDS

"When you put it down legally NI is either in or out ... and then it gets hard for DUP and the Tories."

That's the problem when you try to convert smiles & arm-waving into legally binding text

The legal text of an international treaty can NOT allow the kind of ambiguity that would let both BJ and Varadkar sell it to their own people.
At least not a treaty that the EU would sign

DG The EU don't accept that from the US either - these are the #1 and #2 world economic superpowers wrt GDP

Oh, I wasn't for one moment suggesting they did ... however if I had to bet one way or another on someone from the US completely understanding how the world outside the US works, or misunderstanding how the world outside the US works, in the absence of any other cues, I'd plump for the latter. Wasn't it Barnum that said no one lost money underestimating the public ?

I've been online since 1984, and one of the constants in that time has been various fora posters asking what state the UK is in ....

Just thinking that there's a lot of smoke'n'mirrors going on with the Boris "deal" at the moment.