Westminstenders: Showdown

[RedToothBrush]

Big week ahead.

Johnson has until Tuesday Afternoon to get his shit together for the EU.

He thinks it can be down, but still lots to do in that time.

This week we have the Queen's Speech too, which is going to be misused as a party political broadcast.

Remember if the government can't pass the QS, there's a crisis that gets generated as a direct result. Sticking in proposals that any liberal or leftie will struggle with, is deliberately provoking a crisis of that nature. A proposal of that type would have to be anti democratic in nature, like... Ermmm... Voter ID. Hell, well what do you know.

Johnson is still after his election because as it stands he's a passenger stuck in the runaway train of his own creation.

Talk of a deal breakthrough is still overstated too. The DUP and many of the usual ERG suspects have poured water on the idea. And many on the opposition benches are pushing hard on a confirmary ref being needed for a deal - they don't have the numbers yet, but talk is that they are close. We also have loyalist military making threats about an Irish Sea Border solution.

Time for Project Shit Meets Fan.

Paging @bellinisurge... . NI backstop WA?

amp.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/15/brexit-news-latest-barnier-says-deal-will-be-difficult-but-is-still-possible-this-week-live-news?__twitter_impression=true

Michel Barnier has set Boris Johnson a midnight deadline to concede to EU demands and agree to a customs border in the Irish Sea or be left with nothing to take to the Commons.

According to sources, the EU’s chief negotiator told ministers that, as it stood, there was no prospect of a deal being signed off by leaders at a summit on Thursday, before a special sitting of the UK parliament on Saturday.

Legal text had yet to be tabled by the British negotiators, Barnier told ministers in Luxembourg. He advised the EU capitals he would announce on Wednesday whether negotiations on an agreement would have to continue into next week

EU: This doodle on the back of a fag packet is not enough. We need details.

UK: There you go, dictating your demands.

UK: There you go, dictating your demands.

Kevin and Perry, all over again.
You are so unfair!!

54321 May's deal contains the "level playing field" terms, which would make it v difficult to have anything but a soft future trade deal

Unless in transition the UK & EU agreed a Norway++ type of future trade deal,
the all-UK backstop would be activated, which requires the whole UK to keep all the SM rules on workers' rights, consumers, environment

Under the proposed new WA, the EU have reportedly agreed to give up the level playing field,
in which case a soft Brexit is still possible,
BUT
requires Labour to win the next GE and get a 5-year term to negotiate this deal

This is mainly why several of the ERG who voted against May's WA have said they'd vote for this

• if they win the GE, then this WA would enable a v hard Brexit and then a bonfire of regulations and also the welfare state

@TheMShip , saving my "I told you so" s for now. Many a slip between cup and lip.

I thought the DUP said no to a border in the sea or anything that singles NI out from the rUK? And the SNP will erupt.

It's amazing what a promise of cash will do for the DUP. As for SNP, it doesn't need to use NI as a reason to be pissed off. It has its own solid reasons. Still not certain Scotland would secede from UK but obviously it should be Scotland's decision. It was promised that this could be reopened if there were material changes to the situation. I think Brexit counts as that.

Abortion and same sex marriage will be introduced in NI on 21 October if DUP don't manage to get Stormont up and running. Maybe a stop to that will form part of the payment for Arlene to back down....

I shudder at that realistic possibility @usuallydormant

I know, they are so close bellini... and although the shinners supported Repeal in the south, I think their supporters in the North tend to be more socially conservative. Restricting women's rights tends to be one of the few things both sides of the extremes have common ground on.

Sinn Fein also just running a strong tweet on the implications of the deSouza ruling...

twitter.com/sinnfeinireland/status/1184051129182834688?s=20

Wait - so if we don't have a deal in place by TONIGHT we crash out? Am I reading this right?

Bojo will say on Saturday ' we are close to deal, allow me more time to secure deal' So Parliament agrees, the Benn Act will be broken I.e. he's supposed to ask for extension on the 19 th. With a few more days leeway granted by Parliament, basically shafting the Benn Act he will declare that they cannot agree a deal and bang! It's the 31 st and we are out without a deal. So that way he hasn't broken the law cos Parliament granted more time to get deal but we leave without a deal which was his dastardly plan to start with. The end!

Parliament just needs to say "sure, how about 3 months' more time. Just sign this letter..."

Exactly. MP's have had plenty time to work out any possible dodges round Benn and legal bods have scrutinised it for loopholes. They're hardly going for any 'ooh look over there' type ruses even if Pfeffhole and crew were thick enough try it (which they are)

pretzels
I was criticised a few days ago saying much the same...
I blame leave voters.
Every fucking one of them.
Because just the thought of voting alongside Farage, gove, rees mogg et al should have told them all they needed to know.
That's the real issue. They knew and they still put their cross in that box.
And no, the thought that they will suffer too doesn't make me feel better.

BCF
There will obviously be some jiggling, but the WA as presented by Theresa is pretty close to what will be expected ultimately and is a good lead in to the discussions that will have to happen very soon. It also gives an idea of the degree of depth that any further discussions have to go, rather than a few glib soundbites.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50029635

Conservative Party leaflets obtained by the BBC suggest the party is preparing for a delay to Brexit.

The leaked leaflets, made available to agents and activists last week, also reveal some of the arguments the party may use against their opponents in a general election.

One says voting for The Brexit Party would mean "more delay" because Nigel Farage's party "can't deliver Brexit".

(contd)

The Benn Act was drafted by experts. The "Had Enough Of Experts" crew boldly asserted they would find ways round it, over it or under it, but it turns out they can't.

Of course Farage can't deliver Brexit, it has not been defined yet.
there are other obvious reasons too.

but it turns out they can't.

Hope you're right to be certain there Mockers.

but it turns out they can't.

Gaukward squad indicated they wouldn’t trust Johnson and would insist on an extension even if a deal was in the offing so hopefully that would balance out Hoey et al.