Westminstenders: The Slow No

[RedToothBrush]

Have to make this quick.

Johnson has made an 'offer' to the EU. Let's stress this isn't a deal because they haven't agreed.

The EU have made kind noises about it but will say no thanks.

The UK are expecting this, and despite what's been said apparently are expecting more negotiation on this.

The DUP and the ERG seem to be on board with the proposal meaning in theory Johnson might have numbers to get through parliament. Except its not a deal so this is currently meaningless.

Parliament is prorogued again from next week with the Queen's Speech the following week.

Farage for Commissioner. BJ 'might' dare the Queen to sack him. Govt 'will' and 'will not' abide by the Benn Act.

Have we been taken over by RT?

Boris talking about vetoing the budget is Boris talking through his fat arse again.

The EU would never accept Farage as Commissioner
because even if he is lazy and would do little, he has people around him who would do any actual work.

It would just give him a bigger platform and significant power within the EU to cause damage, which he would use

The EU Commission would refuse to nominate him

Even if they went nuts, decided to "fix" UK politics and put him forward,
the EP has to approve all Commissioners and they most certainly would veto him

Electing Farage as an MEP should have shown him up^

That certainly didn't work

He didn't do his actual job as an MEP, but that didn't matter:
he used the funds especially and also the platform to help spread the far right poison throughout the EU

Many analysts in the EU think he has had at least as much influence on the right of EU politics as he has had in the UK

As a GC feminist it's clear to me that men like Bannon hate women. To men like them the threat of powerful women is the worst thing they can invisage.

The ukippers who think wife beating is something that's "private"...

The ukip councillor who said that their member who killed his wife was as much a victim as she was...

Trump...a self confessed sexual predator....

Farage...who voted against every single EU law or regulation that helps women in the workplace...

Our own dear PM who cheated on his wife whilst she was undergoing cancer treatment...

I get really down about it. The sheer visceral hatred.

Then I remember my dad, my husband, my brother, my fabulous sons, the wonderful men on this thread...and I feel like there is hope.

But...yeah. They hate us.

You forgot:

Farage who left his German wife for his French mistress.

Mister Frottage...

Let’s laugh a bit:

This woman's response to hearing the name 'Boris Johnson' is all of us right now - indy100
apple.news/AeQ6Pm-2pTKu8GC2klIbN_g

Alex Stevenss@AlexStevensKent*

I have resigned from the Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs.

Recent political vetting and exclusion of suitably qualified applicants to join means that the ACMD is losing its independence.
….
The independence of the ACMD was a big factor in my deciding to apply to join in 2014.
Please note that members of the ACMD are not paid by the government for their work – it is done in members’ own time, or in time paid for by their employer (for me, it was a mixture of both)
....
This spring, it came to light that
people who were considered suitable for membership of the ACMD by an appointments panel
had not been appointed by ministers after
vetting of their social media had revealed disagreements with government policies and ministerial statements.

Vetting included collecting information on applicants' statements on Brexit and Windrush,as well as drug policy.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/06/macron-gives-boris-johnson-end-week-overhaul-brexit-plan

senior EU sources said Brussels had all but written off the chance of a deal being struck
and that the onus was now on avoiding blame

“Increasingly capitals have the impression the legal text was tabled to be rejected and never meant to a basis for discussion,”
said one EU diplomat.
......
In response to claims in the Sunday Telegraph that Johnson would seek to provoke the EU to veto an extension by threatening to be an obstructive member state,
one EU official described the government as “beyond pathetic”.

Claims that the government could veto the EU’s budget or impose Nigel Farage as the British commissioner were said to be “nonsense”.

It is not going how they planned it and they are shitting themselves in the Downing St Lie Factory.

Opinion data sheets are up for the poll from Opinium everyone was getting excited about yesterday.

2006 respondents only 954 are used in that poll. The usual 55% male.

If you put back in the don’t knows it’s

CON 29% (29%)
LAB 21% (20%)
LIB 15%. (13%)
BXP 9%. (9%)
DK 18%. (17%)

( ) is last weeks figures to include the don’t knows.

Again don’t knows are heavily female 71% this week.

Opinium exclude all don’t knows/unlikely to vote/don’t want to say.

As ever whichever figures you choose depend on what picture you wish to paint.

Centrists have been opposed to Corbyn leading a GNU anyway. They fear "the reds under the beds" as much as the Tories. Probably because - aside from Brexit - they are on the same team.
Ghost

It's because they have all swallowed the anti-Corbyn propaganda whole. The purpose of the propaganda is to distract ("Look, a red squirrel!") and to suggest that Brexit is a sane policy with no downsides while voting Labour or failing to support Brexit is what will result in ruin.

There is a concerted campaign to whip up a Red Scare. Corbyn has been turned into a bogeyman. You can see it in the language of certain posters here and on other Brexit related threads.

The Opinium poll is over-weighted towards Leave and Conservative voters which is why it differs consistently from other polling organisations.

If you want to be really controversial and add in the may or may not votes last week Con were 27% this week it’s 21%.

@Mistigri as I said earlier if Opinium are willing to pay I can pop to the local golf club with my clipboard my rates are very reasonable and the results would be on par.

And it is not the vote but the distribution of the votes across the constituencies that makes the difference.

I don't think any of the polls is necessarily reliable as a guide to an election. But there does seem to be a reason why the Opinium poll consistently gives a higher Tory share (and lower LD share) than other polls.

Plenty of good discussion on twitter, by @leonardocarella notably, about why even a large Tory lead cannot be assumed to translate into a large majority in a four party scenario.

Turnout will be key too.

Polls are bilge
If I am asked what party I support I will not say Labour because of Corbyn
BUT
when it comes to an actual election, I will vote for whoever keeps the Tories out of MY constituency
and TBH YouGov no longer ask me about Brexit

Some words from across the pond www.nytimes.com/2019/10/06/world/europe/brexit-uk-business-corbyn.html

When the pollsters ask their questions do they have an option of "Not Tory"?

Polls are bilge
If I am asked what party I support I will not say Labour because of Corbyn
BUT
when it comes to an actual election, I will vote for whoever keeps the Tories out of MY constituency

Yeah - I think that the usefulness of polling is much reduced in a situation where voting intentions are highly fluid and where answering a poll has become a highly politicised act.

I routinely answer polls on twitter to say that I'll vote LD when (a) I don't have a vote and (b) if I did I'd vote Labour (but my theoretical Lab vote would be highly dependent on the candidate).

Basilpots If your local golf club is anything like mine, it will be full of elderly white males grumbling about the loss of empire and the winter relief rules.

Fuck me, there are some really stupid people on that AIBU ignorant remainers thread... I've read the whole thing, thought about plunging in, but then nah, cba.

Today's Sunday Times: Boris will 'dare' Brenda to sack him. Personally I wouldnt do that, I think Brenda might turn very nasty indeed, and she knows people who know people - lots of ditches at Sandringham/Balmoral?!

I’d have thought Lisa Nandy might be a Labour MP who’d support Johnson’s deal but apparently not.

Theresa May's withdrawal agreement the only viable EU deal, says Labour MP
Labour MP Lisa Nandy says she won't back Boris Johnson's 'final' offer to the EU and that the only route to leaving the bloc is by bringing back Theresa May's deal.
Speaking on Sky's Sophy Ridge On Sunday, she said that the current prime minister's deal was unacceptable because of the risk she said it poses to the Good Friday Agreement and the loss of environmental and workers' protections.

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/lisa-nandy-won-t-vote-for-boris-johnson-s-deal-1-6308444