Westminstenders: The Slow No

[RedToothBrush]

Have to make this quick.

Johnson has made an 'offer' to the EU. Let's stress this isn't a deal because they haven't agreed.

The EU have made kind noises about it but will say no thanks.

The UK are expecting this, and despite what's been said apparently are expecting more negotiation on this.

The DUP and the ERG seem to be on board with the proposal meaning in theory Johnson might have numbers to get through parliament. Except its not a deal so this is currently meaningless.

Parliament is prorogued again from next week with the Queen's Speech the following week.

@TheElementsSong , I remember reading 1984 (in about 1980) and thinking, that'll never happen......

Brilliant post elements
That's exactly it: reject experts, facts, reason. Then anything goes.
Great to finally name the enemy.

Funny how those very same users of Signalling Theory bang on about progressives and their supposed 'virtue signalling' hmm...

PMK

@BigChocFrenzy Yes, they are horrific crimes, and absolutely should be investigated and the process of justice followed.

My worry is if a tranche of prosecutions are brought that are seen to be biased against once side or the other of the Troubles, at this time of heightened tensions around the GFA, that it could spark retributive attacks from the side that perceives itself to be persecuted.

,

That Signalling Theory thing makes so much sense and clarifies so much, thanks.

As usual, the Mash does far better than the MSM in its political reporting and analysis
www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/five-silly-piffling-minor-trifles-with-boris-johnsons-brexit-plan-20191003189479

The way out of this crisis is simple:....

The only problem here, is that the General Public do not always co-operate. Ask Theresa May about her 100 seat majority.

Interesting post about Signalling Theory.

There is an alternative explanation that doesn't rely on evolutionary psychology: the Madman theory, allegedly used by Nixon. This is the idea that it is of benefit to a leader to cultivate an appearance of unpredictability and irrationality, because it makes opponents worry that they might really actually do something insane, like pressing the red button, or going for a no deal Brexit. Critics have pointed out that it isn't always inteterpreted in the way it is intended, and that it genuinely increases the chance of a catastrophic accidental misunderstanding.

Personally, I think there's an easier explanation: that we are in a political era not only of posture and spin but of very strong affective responses to political triggers. It no longer really matters that something is debunkable, provided it creates the right emotional response.

PMK. Thanks, RTB.

This picture says it all about the border tbh

The Times today suggesting that the EU is open to accepting an extension request from someone other than BJ :

“I am sure the system will produce what we need to get to an extension,” a senior EU source said. “We don’t care who it is, whether it is the prime minister or another representative of the executive.”

....

“What Article 50 says and requires is that the extension is agreed with the UK. Strictly speaking it is silent on whether there should be a request or where the request should come from,” a source said.

A Whitehall source told The Times that the extension letter could be sent by Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary, or Sir Tim Barrow, the UK’s ambassador to the EU, should the prime minister refuse to sign or send it.

The Vietnamese were merely bemused by Kissinger's explanation of how Nixon was mad, and by October 73 when the Soviet Union was threatening to put troops into Egypt, POTUS was in the full throes of a nervous breakdown and Dr K had to save the world.

The US problem in Indo-China was all of their own imagining: The preposterous Domino Theory, and their self-delusion that there was a country called South Vietnam that had been attacked by another country called North Vietnam.

Given that BJ's "proposal" is effectively a complicated version of Ireland's "No Deal" preparations but with more operational borders and added uncertainty (given that the currently non functioning NI assembly can with draw from it, effectively giving the DUP a veto), in some respects it makes it easier for the EU just to say No, as that would actually be simpler for Ireland to deal with

And as we have often said, No Deal cannot stay No Deal forever. At some point the UK will need to agree a deal with our closest neighbours - or we stay on WTO terms forever. And no, German car manufacturers are not going to come and rescue "us".

I ran out of fucks a looking time ago.
I am now running out of face-palms too.

I don't actually care what Johnson gets up to anymore as he has limited room for manoeuvre left and reverts to casual dishonesty whenever he opens his mouth.

I care what the rest of the bloody opposition are doing. Best guess: planning for a VONC on the Queen's Speech or waiting until the 19th to well and truly skewer Johnson into asking for an extension, thus protecting their electoral chances.

As other posters have said: it's not about Brexit any more. It's about who gets to govern the next 5 years.

Delurking to pmk from holiday in Greece.

PMD

PMK, busy at work, will catch up in a little while

TheElements Song

I'm very impressed you came up with all of that whilst brushing your teeth this morning!

This makes great sense to me and also explains why I felt such a chill run through me when watching BJ's speech at the conference yesterday. The sounds of en mass adoration and supportive laughter at the nonsense he was spouting.

It was just like witnessing the coming together of a cult.

pmk

The only problem here, is that the General Public do not always co-operate. Ask Theresa May about her 100 seat majority.

In fairness the first two steps of the plan 1) form a GNU 2) get a GE don't require any input from the general public at all. The GP don't have to do anything - which should suit them right down to the ground.

The problem doesn't arise until 3) hold the GE where we will no doubt vote BJ into five years of power with a mandate to crash out the very next day after the election, hence why I keep saying a P.V first is far far safer because even if leave win the W.A is signed before the election. And if remain wins BJ will not create a mandate on crash out. He doesn't care about brexit he cares about winning. Once brexit is decided one way or the other the electorate are not going to reward anyone who makes an issue of it again - they are bored with it.

for the love of god do not start telling me why a GNU could not survive this long or that there aren't the numbers. I KNOW. it doesn't stop it from being the safer option in theory though just because individual people won't do it in practice

Pmk, and thanks as always

Just trying bullying catch up as had the luxury of a morning coffee date with a friend. I've just put sky news on and apparently there's a statement from JoCum at 11.30am today. I suspect I'll feel unparalleled rage at the mere sight of the toaser.