Westminstenders: The Slow No

[RedToothBrush]

Have to make this quick.

Johnson has made an 'offer' to the EU. Let's stress this isn't a deal because they haven't agreed.

The EU have made kind noises about it but will say no thanks.

The UK are expecting this, and despite what's been said apparently are expecting more negotiation on this.

The DUP and the ERG seem to be on board with the proposal meaning in theory Johnson might have numbers to get through parliament. Except its not a deal so this is currently meaningless.

Parliament is prorogued again from next week with the Queen's Speech the following week.

I'd take Lady Hermon.

If they won't have Corbyn, then it has to be someone entirely neutral because in order to get Corbyn to agree they have to give him a ladder to climb down - because you can bet he would be ripped apart by the press, and by the tories in an election campaign, for being too 'chicken' to be the PM, for agreeing himself he wasn't the best man for the job etc.

That's why I think Bercow (if he'd do it) because he isn't a member of a party and hasn't been for a while and has upheld the spirit of the law and convention throughout this whole mess. Plus having already played a major role in parliament it isn't the leader of the opposition stepping aside for a backbencher to do the job that conventionally should be his, it's the leader of the opposition stepping aside for another major player in parliament - who is neutral and therefore fitting to lead a neutral govt.

But a longstanding independent candidate could work equally well "we chose an independent candidate because this is neither a labour nor a tory govt - it would not be right for either of the main parties to lead such a broad church coalition as this is a matter above party politics and it was crucial that we not be swamped down in the normal blue vs red cut and thrust of point scoring and debate during a time of national crisis." Works well for everybody.

Palmerston had an Irish Peerage.

Tony Blair converted after he left office. Which caused much rueful chuckling among Catholics I know.
Tbe PM gets to choose the Archbishop of Canterbury or any other CofE Bishop if the job comes up during their tenure as PM.
Apparently that's a problem.

Re Northern Ireland MPs being absent ....
Sinn Fein of course always are
DUP decided not to accept the Supreme Court ruling IIRC
so Lady Hermon is the last one standing.
Thing is I suspect she is quite toxic for a lot of people because of her late husbands job and the fact that she was UUP originally

If the PM gets it through it will make it much harder for the EU to reject it. #BrexitDeal

I recall hearing a forensic examination of why Trump would be a shit president on The World At One before he was elected.

One of the exhibits (the fact there were more than one should have been a clue) was that he approached everything as a "businessman" thinking there was a deal to be done, whereas expert after expert said (a) that isn't how international relationships work, and (b) if he tried that as President other countries would run rings around him.

I'm wondering if a variant of that is at play here, with a lot of people (who should know better) somehow convincing themselves that Brexit is "a deal". Which it clearly isn't ?

from memory, and in defence of the experts on the WaO programme, they also pointed out that Trump wasn't even a very good businessman ....

Varadkar has said 5 ways to avoid a hard border

1 United Ireland
2 Ireland joins U.K.
3 UK stays in EU
4 UK stays in Single Market and Customs Union (Norway Option)
5 Back stop

Ireland would accept 4 of these options.

"The PM gets to choose the Archbishop of Canterbury or any other CofE Bishop if the job comes up during their tenure..."

Not a problem for the two non-Christian PMs: Balfour, an agnostic and Chamberlain, a Unitarian.

It's been a long time since the Duke of Wellington; high time we had another Irish PM of the UK

An NI MP who does not support either main party would be a neutral choice, which does not help or hinder any of the mainland parties

The problem with an SNP, Plaid or LDem PM is obvious:
it could give those parties a boost against Labour (& Tory)

The ex-Tory rebels bring baggage - a lot of grudges from what they did over the years when in office
e.g. Ken Clarke, who was Chancellor of the Exchequer among other offices

Old grudges too against retiring Labour MPs, even possible Labour candidates for Speaker have internal party enemies

Also, any Labour MP would give an incumbency boost to Labour and / or a boost to their wing of the party in succeeding Corbyn.

Bercow is v controversial in the country and half the country would be immediately outraged.

However, hardly any mainland voters have heard of Lady Hermon and her quiet personality would be v soothing

Pmk

Unlikely the BJ non-WA would pass the HC

• v few rebels would vote for it and not all current Tory MPs

Even if it did, it won't affect the EU:
The HoC can vote for 1 billion tons of cake, but they won't get it

DUP decided not to accept the Supreme Court ruling IIRC

Which case ?

DGR
I believe they are going along with the Govt line that Parliament should not be sitting
(and its not like they prop up a majority any more)

Thumbs down from EP:

(fyi: Brexit Steering Group is the EP group under Verhofstadt that coordinates and reports back to the EP)


Adam Parsons@adamparsons

Brexit Steering Group statement is as damning as I predicted on @SkyNews
..."proposals breach a range of fundamental principles and red lines..grave concerns...

do not match even remotely what was agreed as a sufficient compromise in the backstop"

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

Secondly, as I was reporting earlier today,

they think the timescales involved are almost laughably small._
_
In next two weeks EU would have to sign up to something of which it couldn’t possibly know the operational details at this stage.

They won’t do it.

..

not all current Tory MPs

Out of interest, which wouldn’t?.... My understanding is that even Cash, Baker and Francois on the Spartans would support it, and Boles would do so from the other end of the spectrum...

I wonder if someone somewhere has a big bet - maybe an accumulator - that the EU will be the ones to reject the UK deal, after the UK has spent the better part of a year rejecting it's own deal ?

I'm wondering whether Red has mis-titled this thread (she is normally so prescient ) and that it should be "The Fast No"

Responding to a few days ago...
I think that BoJo and Trump are both learning from Umberto Eco's essay on ur-fascism
Its deliberate. And scary.
(Eco wrote this in 1995)
theanarchistlibrary.org/library/umberto-eco-ur-fascism

*pages ago
Duh

I think that BoJo and Trump are both learning from Umberto Eco's essay on ur-fascism

Neither is smart enough. The people pulling their strings on the other hand ...

Oakenbeach I heard some of the ERG hardliners wouldn't - they will only accept No Deal

Main thing is: there are only 288 Tory MPs

Would any / enough MPs from the rebel alliance vote for something that is clearly not serious, just a Tory attempt to blame the EU for No Deal
Rebel MPs would have to be very naive / stupid to believe BJ and vote for his propoganda

Totally pointless vote anyway, as they should know it is an absolute NO from the EU to this ridiculous cake fantasy.

Verhofstadt re the UK Brexit plan.

"The question is not if you want to compromise - we have made a compromise, that was the withdrawal agreement.
< most people in the UK don't realise that the EU already compromised more than it wanted to >

The question is: is this a serious compromise?
And we have serious doubts about that,
certainly after the leak of a paper, a document, by Downing Street to the Tory MPs to blame the European Union directly.

If there is a Tory document saying that they have to blame the European Unionn*, then it’s obvious that that is the purpose.

The backstop is in fact a safeguard that is a type of insurance that you never hope to use.
That’s a backstop.^

And this is quite the opposite, what is proposed.
It’s temporary, so it’s not for a long period.
It’s depending on the consent of an assembly in Northern Irelandd^ that, for three years, has not been seated, was never in place.
And there are serious doubts that it will be in place in the coming years."

Guardian comment 😂

Bakwaas

EU: asks for fork
UK: presents spoon

EU: this isn't what we asked for

UK: bends spoon

EU: this is still a spoon
UK: but we've shown flexibility