Westministenders: Conference Cult

[RedToothBrush]

Is it over yet?

The Tory Party Conference is in full swing in the Manchester Rain, and is proving to be its usual fun.

Johnson is caught up in all sorts of allegations of abuses of power - the non-declaration of his "friendship" to a busty blonde whom was getting a large tax payer grant, and then there the Odey question after his sister said he was under the control of the Hedge Funders.

And thats before we talk about the 40 hospitals, his provocative language and how many times he can say the word surrender.

There is lots of distancing from Lyton Crosby. And accusations that Johnson has gone 'rogue' only listening to the wisdom of Cummings and Symonds.

The Queen apparently has asked for advice as to under what circumstance she can dismiss a PM.

AND NO ONE IS EVEN TALKING ABOUT A DEAL.

More Polling:

twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1179044908776198145?s=21

Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ

Twitter, today:

Latest 2nd EURef polls

SURVATION SEP 25
Leave 45%
Remain 51%
Don't know 4%

YOUGOV SEP 20
Leave 37%
Remain 46%
Wouldn't vote/dk 17

KANTAR SEP 9
Leave 34%
Remain 37%
Wouldn't vote/dk 28%

DELTAPOLL SEP 4
Leave 40%
Remain 46%
Dk 14%

PANELBASE SEP 6
Leave 45%
Remain 52%
Dk 3%

BJ's minder confiscates his coffee: "No disposable cups!"

www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2019/oct/01/no-disposable-cups-aide-snatches-coffee-from-boris-johnsons-hand-video

(She then disposed of the cup)

I'm pretty sure support for a PV is still climbing.

I know it's still climbing in Parliament, where it's gone from being pretty unpopular to being a serious consideration (& endorses as Labour policy).

It's taken a massive, grassroots effort to reach that stage, along with lobbying & the dawning realisation it's the only way out of this mess.

Is it time to unleash Uri Geller yet?

Watched Johnson’s interview on Sky with Beth Rigby. He categorically denied the Charlotte Edwards accusation but was very cagey about Jennifer Acura I think he may be worried about that one.

He’s adamant he’s working towards a deal with the EU and that the Government will comply with the law.

But then he’s not going to say otherwise is he.

Let's wait and see if Labour win the GE

A friend just sent me a wonderful YouTube clip of a pianist playing Debussy to an elderly elephant. It brought tears to my eyes.

Can't link but it's easily findable on YouTube, and if anyone can post a link, I'd be grateful.

Not trying to derail - just in the spirit of community mental well-being in these anxiety ridden times.

BCF, did you find the link I asked you for about the EU only accepting an extension request from the PM? I've Googled and couldn't find it, but you've mentioned it a few times, so if you could point me to it I'd be grateful.

The Jennifer Acura allegation is far more serious, because it involves money, which is traceable and does not belong to him.
So he must justify why it was spent
Hence the referral for official investigation

I certainly wouldn't be confident that Remain would get 55% in a real PV, or even 52%

That doesn't matter at all. The purpose of a P.V is not for remain to win, but for parliament to be given the go ahead to actually do something and move forward.

A GE is far muddier because a) it brings in other issues relating to manifestos b) tribal voting c) a hung parliament means that there is still no clear way forward. d) parliamentary arithmetic may mean that there is still not the numbers to actually do anything - everybody clear on what they don't want but no idea of what they do e) FPTP means that everyone who voted for a candidate who didn't win's voice is lost.

Whether or not parliament should pass the W.A needs to be a binary choice. It isn't about cheating leavers or snatching remain back it's about giving parliament a clearly mandated direction.

Plus as it stands - are any parties even putting the W.A into their manifesto? labour are second vote based on their own deal, lib Dem are revoke, tory and brexit are no deal and Plaid, Green and SNP have been second vote for ages, but would probably be quite happy with revoke.

A GE on those manifestos is not going to give any kind of mandate to the signing of the W.A.

Drives me nuts with those polls. They leave the DK which gives a better perspective on the Leave/Remain question, but leave the don’t know/don’t cares out on voting intention which gives a false representation.

Don’t know/don’t/refuse to say is a perfectly reasonable answer atm. In fact I’m surprised it’s not higher.

Fluffy I saw it weeks ago and I can't even remember which EU official or who posted it

I agree BCF which is why if he feels he has nothing to hide I’m surprised he’s not a bit more vocal about it. (Arcuri allegation)

To get a PV, Labour first need to win a GE
but it's v good that a main party is offering a PV

Havering AND swithering.

Sums it all up really.

We really do need a PV before a GE.

Will we get it? Well, not if today has been anything to go by.

And, yes, a GE is unlikely to resolve anything.

I'm completely baffled by Labour's logic with regards to a GE.

Still, I'm going to keep hammering away for a PV: leafleting; petitioning, marching. If only because the alternative is too bleak.

I agree with pretzels and thecat.

Shame you can't remember, BCF, as Google really isn't my friend.

For @Grinchly - lovely!

I favour "mithered"

To get anything but no deal labour need to win a GE. (The Lib dems are not going to and obviously SNP and Plaid don't stand in enough seats)

In the event of a Boris/ Farage GE win - we no deal, laws and conventions will be broken left right and centre and democracy as we know it will be dead. By the time of the next election the country will be so far removed from what is was as to be unrecogniseable with no way back.

If labour get in - with any variation of coalition partner, then it's unlikely brexit will happen at all.

If the Gaukeward squad want their sensible brexit with the W.A they need to put it to a vote before a GE. There is no actual impediment to this other than their own refusal. But it is the only chance of them getting what they want. The belief of someone on the internet that a GNU couldn't hold up long enough to deliver the 6 months it would take to hold a P.V and then a GE is not actually a barrier to it happening. Especially as Almost all rebel MPs will lose their seats at the next GE, so it is in their interests to avoid a GE as long as possible and support a GNU for a couple of years

The logic of a GE - MPs need a new mandate:

. the 2017 manifestos are now out of date
. there are too many MPs who have left / been expelled from the party under which they were elected

@boreofwhabylon - thank you ! 🌸🌸🌸

Do watch it folks , if you’re an animal lover ( and I sense many of us are.)