Westministenders: Conference Cult

[RedToothBrush]

Is it over yet?

The Tory Party Conference is in full swing in the Manchester Rain, and is proving to be its usual fun.

Johnson is caught up in all sorts of allegations of abuses of power - the non-declaration of his "friendship" to a busty blonde whom was getting a large tax payer grant, and then there the Odey question after his sister said he was under the control of the Hedge Funders.

And thats before we talk about the 40 hospitals, his provocative language and how many times he can say the word surrender.

There is lots of distancing from Lyton Crosby. And accusations that Johnson has gone 'rogue' only listening to the wisdom of Cummings and Symonds.

The Queen apparently has asked for advice as to under what circumstance she can dismiss a PM.

AND NO ONE IS EVEN TALKING ABOUT A DEAL.

The idea of 2 years to negotiate something else sounds fine
BUT
the basic Exit Deal would not be much changed (maybe add guarantees of FOM) - only the PD would be renegotiate

This is because the EU know that the next GE can bring in the Tories who would promptly e.g. stick up an NI border - unless a legally binding backstop has been signed

We still come up against the problem that a future trade deal legally can't be negotiated while we are a member
and also
cannot be made legally binding when it is something to negotiate in the future

imo, any GNU would struggle to last more than a few days, just to get an extension and a GE before it ends

The mix of several Opposition parties, plus assorted rebels, have v little in common except opposition to No Deal

They agree only on what they do NOT want, not on what they want

There is that, but also the trappings of being in govt may help to smooth out some of the smaller wrinkles between the alliance parties.....and mean it last longer than planned......

imo, any GNU would struggle to last more than a few days, just to get an extension and a GE before it ends The mix of several Opposition parties, plus assorted rebels, have v little in common except opposition to No Deal

They'd better get used to it ... a hung parliament after the next GE still seems a likely outcome.

The mix of several Opposition parties, plus assorted rebels, have v little in common except opposition to No Deal

And a vested interest in keeping their jobs for as long as possible.

pretty I’ve never heard “thole” used here but I’m a big fan of shoogle, skoosh and boak. And dreich... use that one a lot!!!

They agree only on what they do NOT want, not on what they want

And this is why agreeing a P.V. is actually the most sensible compromise position for them to take. Because nobody actually wants a P.V do they? in the sense that a P.V is not anybody's endgame, it isn't an outcome in and of itself. It is the mechanism by which people can achieve their endgame. And everybody is free to campaign and vote for their desired outcome.
Nobody actually wins or loses simply in the decision to hold a vote to end the current impasse and give parliament a direction to take.

At the moment there is not the numbers either for the W.A or revoke. If there are ever to be numbers from the W.A it will have to come from remainers - because the ERG are never going to let go of no deal. Remain MPs are only going to vote for the W.A if it has been put to the popular vote and won. They are perfectly willing to take that risk - ask the people, get an answer and see it through even if they don't like it (they've already proved their willing to do this by voting to trigger A50)

So why aren't the W.A supporters equally willing to find a way through to end the impasse? If they want that W.A then they need to find a compromise with the remainers to get them to vote for it - which means proving to them once and for all that brexit is really what the people want and remain MPs are simply frustrating that. What are they afraid of?

A GNU formed by replacing another govt after a VoNC, but without a GE won't have much credibility or public acceptance, imo
It would be the first Westminster govt ever to be formed like that

I'd expect constant legal challenges, possibly civil disobedience

I'd also expect that the parties would be slaughtered at the next GE

• by an even more hardline Tory govt who would ppromptly Invoke and immediately leave without a Deal, no negotiations.

A hung Parliament is different - a fresh mandate:

They would show they have the guts to face the electorate
They would all have been elected under their new manifestos
and any surviving rebels would belong to their new party

I like shoogle (and derivatives thereof ) - especially his jaiket is on a shoogly nail

But plus havering (as in he is havering as usual )

Both are particularly relevant in current politics

The Calibre of UK politicians
the Housing Minister Esther McVey has just discovered that houses are designed in 3d ....
www.indy100.com/video/politics/esther-mcvey-discusses-3d-architecture-onvcVlEw

Dreich and havering are my favorites and both good for current situation.

Housing Minister Esther McVey has just discovered that houses are designed in 3d

It's not something that would have bothered her dad when he made his millions knocking down most of Liverpool.

Skooshy is one I use and confuse the English.

And stooky.

pretzels Those of us who want the WA, want it to avoid a No Deal
but principally to lance the infection that is threatening our democracy

I do NOT prioritise Remain over a high risk of that happening

The longer the Rebel Alliance drag this out, the longer they are so obviously too afraid to let a GE happen and let the voters kick them out,
the angrier half the country become
and the more vulnerable to demagogues.

This zombie Parliament is leaving a dangerous political vacuum, which demagogues are filling
A GE - within an extension - would be a fresh start, a new mandate for all the MPs
So that would be another option, but has high risk of a Tory majority and No Deal

If we don't get an extension and come to the last few days, it would be madness to just let time run out and No Deal happen
The EU won't blink and the Brexiters want No Deal

However, it's academic, because reports so far are that both Corbyn and Sturgeon are very keen on a GE soon,
so long as we get an extension and the GE is before Brexit Day

I'm not sure which politicians are pushing to delay the GE for 2 years or so

the angrier half the country become

half ?

17/65 = 25% or ¼

Update on punchup:

He's been sent off for an early bath:

https://www.cityam.com/tory-mp-clifton-brown-in-conference-altercation/

Greater Manchester Police said:

“At around 1:45pm on Tuesday 1 October, an attendee to the Conservative Party Conference attempted to enter the International Lounge Area of the conference without a relevant pass.

“Security staff intervened and resolved the situation without any breach of security occuring.”

A Conservative party spokesman called the incident “totally unacceptable”.

“Geoffrey has been asked to leave Conference
and we are establishing all of the facts to see if further action is necessary"

I'm not sure which politicians are pushing to delay the GE for 2 years or so

Maybe none ... it was an idea that was knocking around in my head ....

DG Semantics
Look at the polls
Remain at 39%, No Deal+WA > 50%

I imagine following the P45 stunt, there's heightened checks ?

Nothing guaranteed to put a brief smile on my face as much as a pompous twat getting treated like anyone else ... (if that's what happened here ?)

Following news elsewhere, maybe he thought he'd get in without a pass, but with a bottle of Pol Roger champagne ?

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/huge-delivery-champagne-arrives-tory-20379615

I guess it's best to stock up on French champagne (bit of a kick in the teeth for English wine) while you can though.

DG Semantics Look at the polls Remain at 39%, No Deal+WA > 50%

of 65,000,000 ?

Anyway, polls are ephemeral and (thankfully) still not how we elect governments.

No, so as soon as we have an extension, let's have a GE and elect one

No, so as soon as we have an extension, let's have a GE and elect one

Amen.

I thought polling was about 55 Remain, 45 Leave at the moment?

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.lbc.co.uk/news/remain-55-45-second-referendum-brexit-poll/

In polls I've seen, Remain only gets much above 40% when pitted against one particular Leave

I certainly wouldn't be confident that Remain would get 55% in a real PV, or even 52%

Another problem now is that a PV is much less popular than it was
If Labour win a GE , they'll have a mandate for that, though