Westminstenders: Supreme Democracy

[RedToothBrush]

Tuesday is the big day about prorogation.

The Supreme Court hears the case of Cherry and Miller against the government.

This could test the constitution and the union. The Supreme Court sits as both as a Scottish Court and and English Court and applies Scottish / English law accordingly. And there are differences. It is possible that prorogation might only be illegal under one or the other but would have effect on parliament. Or its possible that the Supreme Court might decide to uphold the government position.

What is encouraging is the constitutional expert blogs which suggest that they lean to the court intervening. It's important that for the A50 case the Supreme Court referenced the arguments in these blogs.

But let's not get too carried away.

As it is Joe Moor, former director of legislative affairs at 10 Downing Street wrote in today's Telegraph that Johnson could merely prorogue again from Oct 14 "until at least Nov 6" thus preventing parliamentary scrutiny of no deal which would help enable in effect illegally. The Times also reported Cummings as having said this to advisors.

This has been dismissed by legal experts, but the point remains there is a willingness to both frustrate parliament and be as obstructive as possible in the days leading up to 31st.

There is also the 'Nobile Officium' Court action designed to stop illegal no deal by allowing the courts to write a letter to the EU to request an extension of Johnson refuses to.

It remains to be seen if it has even a chance of success.

The British press has been full of comments of optimism for a deal this weekend. This is after there was positive noises in a similar vein from Brussels. These has since been largely dismissed as mere political will with no practical progress. The British optimism has also been dismissed as mere posturing. And Priti Patel "misspoke" when she appeared to suggest that no deal was no policy this morning.

Other rumours include the French willing to grant a 2year extension but not a 3month one out of fear this will happen repeatedly. The French are now pushing for a deal and relaxing their approach as such (but Germany won't compromise the single market and Ireland the GFA so its all talk).

And do not forget, for all the talk of a deal there are certain time restrains.

Apparently Nikki da Costa has a timetable to get a deal through parliament in 'just ten days' on a spreadsheet. So that gives you an idea that the 19th October is possibly the last day to get a deal in front of parliament if you completely accept that we are leaving without any extension. This neglects the issue that a new deal isn't on the table from the EU and the backstop isn't going anywhere.

A last minute deal or no deal situation is highly risky with the ERG on one side and hard core Remainers who think Johnson won't defy the Benn Amendment and thus will try and block a deal to the last

It seems that we will have a game of cat and mouse until the bitter end.

Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84
1/14 There’s a lot of attention on Labour’s NEC decision regarding Labour Students but another decision taken appears to be causing a major row with Welsh Labour and could seriously harm relations between Jeremy Corbyn and one of his earliest supporters, Mark Drakeford.

2/14 It’s over a decision taken by the NEC not to devolve reselections in parliamentary constituencies. Welsh Labour is already in charge of selections here, so for AMs & MPs and reselections for AMs.

3/14 (I should say that some thought that Welsh Labour had long had power over selections and reselections for MPs in Wales. Apparently not. They certainly don’t now.)

4/14 Devolving reselections (i.e. trigger ballots) was seen as ‘a sensible cleaning up of the rules.’ Not only that but it was supported by Mark Drakeford the First Minister and Welsh Labour leader and his NEC appointee, Mick Antoniw

5/14 However the NEC voted against devolving that power to Welsh Labour.

6/14 It means there’ll now be different standards for triggering a full selection contest in the same constituency.

7/14 I.e. Welsh Labour’s rules require 51% to trigger full selection against sitting AMs whereas the now-confirmed England & Wales rules will mean only 1/3 vote required to do the same against a sitting MP.

8/14 Some have told me it was done ‘purely for factional reasons’ i.e. control over trigger ballots such as that held against Police & Crime Commissioner Alun Michael this week.

9/14 I understand that Welsh Labour MPs are angry, not particularly about the rule change but that the principle of devolution within the party has been overridden. ‘It throws devolution under a bus,’ I was told.

10/14 But more worrying for the leadership should be what I understand to be the reaction of the leadership in Wales, led by Mark Drakeford who was an early and strong supporter of Jeremy Corbyn.

11/14 He’s also a big supporter of giving members a greater say in the running of the party in Wales and seeing decisions made in Wales.

12/14 But I gather there’s a feeling that today’s vote suggests that Jeremy Corbyn’s office has decided to impose rules on Welsh Labour which adds to a growing feeling that the office continues to disrespect the only Labour leader of a government in the UK.

13/14 The Welsh Executive Committee will now meet to consider the implications of today’s decision.

14/14 ‘It’s a foolish row to have on the eve of our conference,’ one source told me. ‘It’s a disgrace,’ said another, that will only push away allies that Corbyn can’t afford to alienate.

Labour getting increasingly authoritarian then...

Despite calling themselves “Democrats” they want to ignore the biggest vote in British history and cancel Brexit.

That old lie again .

More people voted in 1992, 33,614,074, with a smaller population. Percentage turnout then was 77.7% (which was actually lower than many previous elections, albeit the highest for 18 years).

33,551,983 voted in the EU Referendum: 72.2% of the electorate.

So even in absolute terms, it is a straight lie.

There is a way of wording that statement to make it sort of true - but to do so conflates referendums (with a binary choice) with elections (with a multiplicity of choices).

amp.ft.com/content/7453c686-d9b7-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17?__twitter_impression=true
EU fears Brexit reality has dawned too late for Boris Johnson
Officials have become increasingly pessimistic about the prospects of a deal with the UK’s prime minister

I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that Johnson genuinely is so lazy he does not understand the problem and he does not know what to do, so the only way he can act is to try and bluff and blame his way out of it.

Henry Zeffman@hzeffman
EXCL: Ministers’ advisers have been told to sign new contracts which give Dominic Cummings new powers to discipline them
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b8175068-d999-11e9-a836-b8a7068a08fb
Dominic Cummings cements his power to sack advisers

I saw that Red.

I am undecided if Johnson is lazy, out of his depth or far too trusting of those advising him.

Perhaps a combination of all three.

So whilst the FT is reporting that the all Ireland proposal that Johnson had thought was a good idea and has since discovered does not actually solve the problem (which Peter Foster has been saying for some time)

We have some 'quality' journalism from Laura Kuenssberg sharing absolute bollocks about how an all Ireland deal will pass the Commons now.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Nothing like a bit of number crunching in the morning ...

Iain Anderson @iainwanderson
Our latest ⁦*@CiceroGlobal*⁩ number crunching on a revised #Brexit deal on an all Ireland basis - looks like it could pass the Commons

Do the DUP would suddenly do a complete about turn?

Have I missed something?

Long Time Lurker breaking cover to say, have you seen this?

britainelects.com/polling/europe/

I've seen lots of general election polling from this site posted on these threads, but I don't think I've seen their 'leave/remain' data here. Its very interesting. I'm a Lib Dem, and largely supportive of their Revoke policy, as I had thought that the risk of another 'leave' result coming from a second referendum was too high. But look at those figures! Polling has shown a consistent lead for remain since July 2017. Of the 35 individual surveys that have taken place since the start of 2019, just two have returned a majority for Leave, and in both cases, it was a majority of just 1%.

They have also been tracking several key Brexit-related attitudes:

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way in which the Government is handling the Brexit negotiations?”
In the latest poll, 92% of those surveyed said that they disapprove - and this figure has been increasing steadily over the past couple of years (it was around 50% approval at its high point in 2017).

“Do you agree or disagree with: Britain will be economically better off post Brexit?”
All through 2017, 'agree' had a consistent lead, but this has started to fall away, and for the past year, this has shifted to a small but consistent lead for 'disagree'.

“Do you agree or disagree with: having greater control over immigration is more important than having access to free trade with the EU?”
Until about a year ago, polls showed this flip-flopping between small majorities for agree and disagree, but since then, it has been very largely 'disagree'.

I know that we must take polling data with a pinch of salt, but these trends are much more positive than I had thought.

PS These threads are AMAZING. Westminstenders is the first thing I do after work every day and sometimes during for a guaranteed thorough, incisive update.

So if LibDem, PC and indepedents vote against, it's a dead duck.

I hate the misogyny of it. I hate the cheapness of it all, but on the basis others thought it before me, I do wonder if Laura K. is perhaps a little to close to her source(s) at times ?

@Basilpots
I think the DUP were always ok with being part of an Irish SPS system but that is not enough to solve the issue.

Interesting look at how the future might look. Bearing in mind this is exactly the sort of nonsense that any form of Brexit will squash dead. Kinda ironic, really, in the nation that undoubtedly was the industrial revolution for a century.

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/09/18/uk_automation_future_work_inquiry/

If Syria pioneered grain processing by watermill in 350BC, the UK in 2019 can do better... right?

I am undecided if Johnson is lazy, out of his depth or far too trusting of those advising him.

I find it extraordinary and difficult to believe that the PM does not know things that have been common knowledge among ordinary people on parenting forums for three years.

Alexander Clarkson on twitter has a different take on this (good follow for insight into the European view of Brexit):

"EU spins ruthlessly shock...
^
Decades of UK punditry and analysis that portrayed EU figures as legalistic bumpkins to be mown down by hardmen of Westminster and Rolls Royce Whitehall have led May, Johnson and Cummings to cluelessly dive into a shark tank^"

I hate the misogyny of it. I hate the cheapness of it all, but on the basis others thought it before me, I do wonder if Laura K. is perhaps a little to close to her source(s) at times ?

Laura has been Johnson's girlfriend elect for quite a while. The fact he has one already wouldn't bother any three of them.

Come on, you guys are better than this.
Laura K is an amazing political reporter, she does a great job. This does not mean shes sleeping with "the man" (I watched Aladdin the other day (
It's a common sexist theme to suggest a woman with power got that because of sex. Noone suggests John Pienaar gets his info through being "too close".
Just stop it. Makes me sick 🤮

Can't imagine why any self respecting woman would want to be Johnson's girlfriend. Boak.

I find it extraordinary and difficult to believe that the PM does not know things that have been common knowledge among ordinary people on parenting forums for three years.

Either way, he has to act as if he believes his own press.

Again, a tiresome meme, but this is how a decent press would have contained the lies - just make sure you force the people spinning them to live by them.

The UK appears to have drifted into the "Star Trek" way of working. Great for TV, but actually not how it's done by the real world.

(For non-nerds, it was a course of annoyance for the uber-nerds from day one, that when the Enterprise found a new planet, rather than sending the specialist teams that you'd expect to do the research, the first reaction was to send the 3 most senior officers down - thus decapitating the ships command ... but then you had to have storylines for the stars, not the "experts".)

No she isn't an amazing reporter at all. She is an awful excuse for such.
Numerous times she lets her guard slip. Male or female, look at her performance. It's shocking.

There's an awful lot of major - and unlikely - assumptions in that piece of number crunching by Laura K

17 Labour rebels?
10 DUP?
Only 8 ERG?

Only 13 of them need to vote against and it's dead as a dodo again

It's a common sexist theme to suggest a woman with power got that because of sex

I have zero fucks knowledge about Laura K. All I know is on the day when she could have had the story of her life - pinning a fleeing Prime Minister down, and holding him to account to the people of his own country, she chose not to.

Incidentally, if John Humphries were around, I have no doubt he'd have been mixing up the soap that Laura K metaphorically covered Boris in.

And, just for the record, no one would have been saying anything had Laura K done her job. It's the fact she didn't which raised the question (not by me, in the first instance).

Furthermore, the suggestion is also related to Boris well-known behaviour ... so is as much a slur on him as anyone. The mans a sleaze, and frankly I don't like the implication that the best person a supposedly Great Nation like Britain can find for the most senior job is a man with the morals of an alleycat. Because it means it's hard to shake off the feeling that it isn't just women he humps and dumps, but political parties and entire countries.

While I find Laura K irritating on the news items - which seem to be expecting a particular editorial "line" (which is also evident when she writes a decent political analysis piece and the headline gives a misleading impression) - I find her much better on Brexitcast when she isn't trying to follow that line and more aware that her sources are not necessarily realistic. Maybe because she is then being challenged by her fellow Brexitcasters who expect her to justify her opinions.

Katya Adler is a much better journalist though and doesn't seem to be so susceptible to "spin". As are Adam Fleming and Chris Mason.

Decades of UK punditry and analysis that portrayed EU figures as legalistic bumpkins to be mown down by hardmen of Westminster and Rolls Royce Whitehall have led May, Johnson and Cummings to cluelessly dive into a shark tank^"

I’ll add overestimating ones own abilities and underestimating those they are negotiating with.

And these are the people we are trusting future trade deals with ??

They will get their arses handed to them on a plate.

One of Laura's first tasks as chief political editor was to interview Corbyn 're his role and if he would bow to HRH.
Corbyn, of whom i am no great fan, made her look like a small annoying terrier dog, snapping away at heels.

Humphries is quite a bit worse but still of the same bottle.

Adler comes across as much better balanced but then the BBC lost it 're brexit a while back.

Dear JustAnotherPoster00

Given the dramatic and worrying events in Westminster recently, I thought this would be a good time to write to you personally to set out the Welsh Labour Party's position on Brexit.

Welsh Labour believes that Wales' best interests will only be served by remaining in the European Union.

We campaigned for a remain vote in the 2016 referendum and nothing we have seen or learned in the three years' since has changed our minds.

Any type of Brexit - even the softest possible - will cause potentially irreparable damage to Wales and its economy. This is because Wales is heavily dependent on manufacturing and agri-food and 60% of our exports go straight to the EU.

We will support all the efforts our colleagues in Westminster are taking to prevent the no deal Brexit, which the Prime Minister and the Tory government is hell-bent on pursuing.

Labour has made an unequivocal commitment to put the Brexit decision back to the people.

In that referendum, we, as Welsh Labour, must and will campaign to remain in the EU.

Yours in solidarity,
Mark Drakeford AM
Welsh Labour Leader and First Minister

As a neutral I like the email Just more than the email to Julia.

Also massive Katya Adler fan. She's like a smiling assassin. Such a nice persona but very shrewd in her analysis.