Westminstenders: Supreme Democracy

[RedToothBrush]

Tuesday is the big day about prorogation.

The Supreme Court hears the case of Cherry and Miller against the government.

This could test the constitution and the union. The Supreme Court sits as both as a Scottish Court and and English Court and applies Scottish / English law accordingly. And there are differences. It is possible that prorogation might only be illegal under one or the other but would have effect on parliament. Or its possible that the Supreme Court might decide to uphold the government position.

What is encouraging is the constitutional expert blogs which suggest that they lean to the court intervening. It's important that for the A50 case the Supreme Court referenced the arguments in these blogs.

But let's not get too carried away.

As it is Joe Moor, former director of legislative affairs at 10 Downing Street wrote in today's Telegraph that Johnson could merely prorogue again from Oct 14 "until at least Nov 6" thus preventing parliamentary scrutiny of no deal which would help enable in effect illegally. The Times also reported Cummings as having said this to advisors.

This has been dismissed by legal experts, but the point remains there is a willingness to both frustrate parliament and be as obstructive as possible in the days leading up to 31st.

There is also the 'Nobile Officium' Court action designed to stop illegal no deal by allowing the courts to write a letter to the EU to request an extension of Johnson refuses to.

It remains to be seen if it has even a chance of success.

The British press has been full of comments of optimism for a deal this weekend. This is after there was positive noises in a similar vein from Brussels. These has since been largely dismissed as mere political will with no practical progress. The British optimism has also been dismissed as mere posturing. And Priti Patel "misspoke" when she appeared to suggest that no deal was no policy this morning.

Other rumours include the French willing to grant a 2year extension but not a 3month one out of fear this will happen repeatedly. The French are now pushing for a deal and relaxing their approach as such (but Germany won't compromise the single market and Ireland the GFA so its all talk).

And do not forget, for all the talk of a deal there are certain time restrains.

Apparently Nikki da Costa has a timetable to get a deal through parliament in 'just ten days' on a spreadsheet. So that gives you an idea that the 19th October is possibly the last day to get a deal in front of parliament if you completely accept that we are leaving without any extension. This neglects the issue that a new deal isn't on the table from the EU and the backstop isn't going anywhere.

A last minute deal or no deal situation is highly risky with the ERG on one side and hard core Remainers who think Johnson won't defy the Benn Amendment and thus will try and block a deal to the last

It seems that we will have a game of cat and mouse until the bitter end.

Oakenbeach In the event of an ttack, or illness, the resignation of the PM (or indeed their death) would not be voluntary
And normally if a PM if forced through scandal etc to resign, then their party would be desperate to stay in power and avoid a GE as long as possible

In BJ's case, the resignation would be wilful, not forced
and the aim, as well as avoiding not having to request an extension, would be to try to force a GE

This is one of the ways to circumvent the FTPA:
the governing party PM resigns and the party refuses to offer a replacement

If the Opposition can't get the votes for a replacement PM, then a GE is announced within 14 days

• this of course would take us past 31 October and there would lready hav been automatic No Deal

.... without a PM or govt
Dreadfully, horribly irresponsible
But don't assume BJ/Cum wouldn't do this

I would actually think that a) this has already been considered by the rebels and b) the opposition WOULD step up in this instance. I'm pretty sure the Queen would approve whoever went to her in that situation so we aren't left in total crisis.

If BoJo and his crew don't want to follow constitutional norms in how things are done, why the fuck should anyone else?

Let's not assume there isn't already a solution to this potential issue under wraps. The opposition and rebels are understandably keeping their cards close to their chest right now. I still have some hope (because without hope there is despair!).

Actually who is the Deputy PM
*
*
Yup if Johnson did resign we'd be left with the 'deputy'- the genius that is Dominic Raab? OMG

As I understand it there's no deputy PM at the moment anyway. Raab is first Secretary of State. Why is he first at anything?
There hasn't been an official Deputy PM since Nick Clegg.
Remember May didn't have a Deputy but appointed her best 'couple friend' from when she was at Uni. as first Secretary of State. Great choice given his porn addiction..Damian Green - why is he still an MP anyway ? In other jobs if you do porn at work you get sacked- my friend's husband did. So did one of the managers at DHs work.
Green was then replaced by Lidington as Minister for the cabinet office who May just knighted.

When you look at all the scandal and appointments and resignations and sackings and changes since 2016. Combine that with suspensions and court cases and suppression of information and leaks. If this was say Italy we'd be tutting and being all superior about how we are above all that.

thecat a few pages ago you hoped the Leave campaign wouldn’t get too much money in a PV.

Russia still want us to brexit. Russia will be heavily funding the upcoming GE / PV.

I don’t think there are any circumstances in which remain will be better funded - or marketed - than leave.

This is what really frightens me.

Why I keep banging on about the possibility of BJ resigning ^
is that although the Brexiters allusions to a "managed No Deal" are rubbish in the sense of alleviating any No Deal effects,

this could be a No Deal "managed" to produce the greatest possible disaster & disruption

... and of course the greatest profit for the hedge-funders betting against Sterling

We know that Cummings wants to destroy in order to "rebuild" the country as he thinks it should be.
This would probably produce the greatest degree of destruction, other than ordering the RAF to bomb its own country (which it wouldn't do)

lonelyplanet The only thing worse than not getting Raab is getting noone at all
No government

Uniquely, no caretaker govt - because they would be legally bound to ask for an extension

So let's hope the RA have actually pencilled in their bod' name and totted up the votes to reach a majority.

I think if anyone scuppers the opposition, it'll be the Lib Dems. Who will then never ever recover as a party for their part in assisting no deal.

@redtoothbrush I want you to tell me I'm paranoid and this couldn't possibly happen
Tell me the Constitution covers this case, so the country is never without a govt,

even if the previous govt refuses to be caretakers

All I can think of is that HMQ just chooses someone from the Opposition and declares "you're it" and overides the need for a Confidence vote in the emergency
However, that would be a very political decision
So would she dare ?

What’s happened to this thread??

First, we need the court decision re proroguing, before we get to the next crisis !

I agree with DGR (), those opposed to what the govt is up to will have considered the likelihood of a VONC or resignation and must have a replacement PM ready to go by now. Otherwise we’re all doomed, and I don’t want to consider that possibility.

BCF, I would think that somebody would ask for an audience with HMQ and put their case forward to be an interim PM, explaining what they'd do in the role and why. She'd then agree to it. Rather than her actively choosing somebody herself.

Bearing in mind the constitutional experts don't seem to be able to agree on what even happens if the prorogation is judged to be unlawful, I've almost given up on my hope that any decision which declares it so will have any impact whatsoever.

BoJo and his ilk don't give a shiny shit whether they've broken the law or not, or whether they intend to going forward.

But...I do think that BoJo is in it WAY over his head. He's got in with the wrong crowd and is desperately trying to be one of them by coming up with more and more outlandish plans. I don't think he's actually comfortable with it but he's got no idea how to extricate himself at this point. I've no sympathy for him; he's made his bed and all that. I do hope he can't sleep at night.

Queen, yes, I agree on all fronts!

Keir at the very least will have brought this up. And, given the radio silence, I'm pretty sure there are plans afoot!

First, we need the court decision re proroguing, before we get to the next crisis

As Gina Miller said yesterday, this could take days for the decision to be made. This is all such a mess.

flouncy If BJ / Cummings decide to resign, to avoid asking for an extension, then Raab would not wish to ask either; hence he would refuse to be PM.
In fact they would whip all Tories, not just Raab, not to offer themselves as PM

A cheery morning here for all today I see

I don't see how all this refusal to do stuff and stepping down, thereby causing no deal, will fit with the 'not my fault' narrative though. I'm not sure it was the first game plan, which shows that the GE refusal put them into a tail spin.

I don't think it matters who's fault it is by then. This lot know the Conservative party is screwed; main aim now is to get the ball across the line. Wonder how much the ERG collectively will receive as a back-hander for breaking up the UK?

BJ is floundering all right.
The Opposition were supposed to fall into the GE trap
The cunning plan didn't have contingencies for the Opposition not doing what ws expected

However, making No Deal as chaotic as possible fits right in with those like Cummings, with a nihilistic wish for destruction
and certainly would further increase windfalls for the hedge-funders

fluffy
Yes!!!
That's exactly who bojo reminds me of!...
A 6th former getting in with the wrong crowd and desperately trying to please and getting in over his head.
Ffs.
How have we come to this!??

Some members of the ERG and some Tory / Leave donors have heavily invested in investment funds that would greatly profit from No Deal, or have directly invested themselves

so one can assume they would profit even more from the most chaotic ND possible.

All I can think of is that HMQ just chooses someone from the Opposition and declares "you're it" and overides the need for a Confidence vote in the emergency

Someone has to demonstrate they have the ability to command the confidence of the House before they will be invited by the Queen to be PM.

Normally that's a GE.

In other times it's less clear cut. It'd involve a public declaration of support (so Jo Swinson running around saying she won't support Corbyn is potentially significant - but I cavet this with her weasel wording of after a GE. The LDs are currently being rotters for this. Look for their exact wording and what they leave room for)

Some can decline to take up the office of PM if invited by the Queen.

But if we have a situation where someone formally resigns by going to the Palace to offer their resignation (which doesn't normally take place until the PM's successor is clear and publicly announced - and this is after the public resignation and/or a GE) then we might have an issue.

I think this is all governed by convention rather that firm legal rules.

All I can think of is that the PM offers their resignation and the Queen then accepts it in protocol (look at the wording from the Palace when May formally resigned - if memory serves I think it was along those lines). If I'm right by the same token, someone could offer their resignation but it could be declined if there is no obvious successor.

Before the FTPA this pretty much would have triggered a GE. But now it can't.

You could end up with an unwilling PM but one with legal responsibility whether they liked it or not.

I'm speculating a lot here (I've been busy the last couple of days so I'm a little unsure of the context of your question and have some catching up to do).

Under convention we do have periods where we have no PM and that's when the last PM has formally resigned and the new one hasn't been formally appointed by the Queen. So constitutionally yes we have half hours of no PM. But this is arranged and planned so not a problem in theory (in practice what happens if someone launches a nuke at us in that 30 min period is a mystery).

As I say I need to catch up desparately.

Yes, but BoJo / the Tories can't get a GE until after a no deal has kicked in. Which it will from day one if you're near to Dover and by week 2 for some food supplies. If they can't use the 'not my fault!' line in their campaigning, they will - rightly - be punished in the polls.

As I said the other day, if people find their Christmas planning / buying being well and truly fucked up, there will be ructions!

If people riot over a lack of KFC, wait until their Christmas is fucked, or looks like it will be!

This really wasn't the plan, even if people are going to make money from it.

Can you imagine the tabloid headlines if there are Christmas food issues?!

Just because you don't like what Boris is saying doesn't mean others are following your lead.
The podium stunt comes over as bullying.
What was said in the speech as , when we give you no deal it will be your own fault. Not that the EU will fight for a deal.