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Brexit

Westminstenders: Supreme Democracy

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 15/09/2019 19:45

Tuesday is the big day about prorogation.

The Supreme Court hears the case of Cherry and Miller against the government.

This could test the constitution and the union. The Supreme Court sits as both as a Scottish Court and and English Court and applies Scottish / English law accordingly. And there are differences. It is possible that prorogation might only be illegal under one or the other but would have effect on parliament. Or its possible that the Supreme Court might decide to uphold the government position.

What is encouraging is the constitutional expert blogs which suggest that they lean to the court intervening. It's important that for the A50 case the Supreme Court referenced the arguments in these blogs.

But let's not get too carried away.

As it is Joe Moor, former director of legislative affairs at 10 Downing Street wrote in today's Telegraph that Johnson could merely prorogue again from Oct 14 "until at least Nov 6" thus preventing parliamentary scrutiny of no deal which would help enable in effect illegally. The Times also reported Cummings as having said this to advisors.

This has been dismissed by legal experts, but the point remains there is a willingness to both frustrate parliament and be as obstructive as possible in the days leading up to 31st.

There is also the 'Nobile Officium' Court action designed to stop illegal no deal by allowing the courts to write a letter to the EU to request an extension of Johnson refuses to.

It remains to be seen if it has even a chance of success.

The British press has been full of comments of optimism for a deal this weekend. This is after there was positive noises in a similar vein from Brussels. These has since been largely dismissed as mere political will with no practical progress. The British optimism has also been dismissed as mere posturing. And Priti Patel "misspoke" when she appeared to suggest that no deal was no policy this morning.

Other rumours include the French willing to grant a 2year extension but not a 3month one out of fear this will happen repeatedly. The French are now pushing for a deal and relaxing their approach as such (but Germany won't compromise the single market and Ireland the GFA so its all talk).

And do not forget, for all the talk of a deal there are certain time restrains.

Apparently Nikki da Costa has a timetable to get a deal through parliament in 'just ten days' on a spreadsheet. So that gives you an idea that the 19th October is possibly the last day to get a deal in front of parliament if you completely accept that we are leaving without any extension. This neglects the issue that a new deal isn't on the table from the EU and the backstop isn't going anywhere.

A last minute deal or no deal situation is highly risky with the ERG on one side and hard core Remainers who think Johnson won't defy the Benn Amendment and thus will try and block a deal to the last

It seems that we will have a game of cat and mouse until the bitter end.

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thecatfromjapan · 16/09/2019 23:15

What say you people?

I genuinely flip flop.

(And am terrified Conferdnce is actually going to produce s nightmare position.)

tobee · 16/09/2019 23:16

Sorry but nobody disses @BigChocFrenzy

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2019 23:17

Thecat At the next GE, voters will probbaly have a wide choice of Brexit outcomes in the manifestos, which is good:

The Tories with No Deal, LDems with Revoke, Labour with a PV
With al the conferences, let's see what the Greens policy is and what the SNP have for Scottish voters, too

thecatfromjapan · 16/09/2019 23:18

Neutral also runs the risk of legitimising the Far Right Power grab. 🤷‍♀️

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2019 23:20

At least if the Tories have No Deal in their manifesto - and lose - then this removes most of the pressure to have it as an option in a PV

However, as we all agree, it will take a lot of luck to get as far as a PV

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2019 23:21

tobee 🤛🏼

thecatfromjapan · 16/09/2019 23:24

BigChoc I was heartened by this:

twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1173689813993701376?s=21

(It's John Remtoul's Brexit flowchart, suggesting all roads now lead to PV.)

thecatfromjapan · 16/09/2019 23:25

Cordelia Your plans sound good.

I'll be doing the same.

Apileofballyhoo · 16/09/2019 23:26

Interestingly, I would say Sky News seems more remain biased than BBC. Which is surprising. And quite possibly wrong.

Sky seems less biased to me than the BBC, which seem to be biased towards the government, which I suppose makes them biased towards leave. The Times and The Sunday Times have also surprised me for being more balanced.

Calyx72 · 16/09/2019 23:27

Laughed at the empty podium today - the incredible hulk turns incredible sulk was funny but mainly it reminded me of when BJ sneaked out of his meeting with Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's First Minister, at Bute House by the back door to avoid the crowd protesting against him outside the front, leading to the hashtag #backdoorboris

Peregrina · 16/09/2019 23:35

Cannot understand the utter hatred of the EU from the UK.

This isn't all of us, by any means, and for a significant number of people, they don't really care.

It is a noisy minority. Some of whom really hate the sort of Social Democracy seen in Germany and Scandinavia and are wealthy enough to want to slavishly copy the Americans, because they (think) they will be winners - this is your Rees-Mogg's and Farage's of the world. People like Boris Johnson - well just out for himself. If suddenly the country swung to being pro EU and blue flags with yellow stars appeared eveywhere, he would change his tune.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2019 23:35

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

Lord Sumption: “I don’t see how he [the PM] can leave without a deal on October 31st.
It [the Benn Act] is a very tightly drafted bit of legislation.”

Unfortunately, BJ / Cummings have no respect for rules & law
and our Constitution gives a PM a lot of unfettered power, compared to almost any western democracy

I wish I had Sumption's certainty, but I'm not sure if he's adjusted to this new situation in which the villains are in charge

They don't have to be as clever as those writing the laws

e.g. If BJ resigns as PM on 18 / 19 October, then that neatly sidesteps the law
If then the Rebel Alliance can't agree on a new PM within a few days - a very possible outcome - it's No Deal,
with a GE to follow 5 weeks or so later

Basilpots · 16/09/2019 23:38

BCF you’re a Star

cordeliajackson · 16/09/2019 23:38

Which laws are you all looking forward to breaking tomorrow?

What with rule of law being elitist lies and all?

@davidallengreen
There is no other plausible construction to place on Johnson's comments that he is prepared to break the law

Which laws are going to be broken to your detriment, is obviously the downside, but swings and roundabouts.

Just having a larf. Wink

thecatfromjapan · 16/09/2019 23:43

Yes. I really hope they can decide on a Leader fast.

Peregrina · 16/09/2019 23:43

I wasn't planning to break any laws tomorrow. Should I be; is there some sort of protest planned?

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2019 23:45

TheCat Rentoul's flowchart assumes that either Corbyn or Clarke will obtain the support of a majority of MPs
Quite possible neither will have

Tories will be whipped to oppose either, in order to go for a GE (automatic No Deal)
The Rebel Alliance agree on opposition to No Deal, but on hardly anything else; they may well not agree on a new PM

Or one EU country may veto an exension and then the HoC may still not approve the WA

That's just the first 2 roads to No Deal on 31 October that I can think of
I expect red or other pp can post a couple of others, but I'm off to bed shortly

Apileofballyhoo · 16/09/2019 23:47

The trouble with Benn is, I suppose, that the EU have to agree to an extension, and Cummings's plan seems to be to annoy as many EU leaders as possible, in the hope no extension is granted. An extremely goady fucker. I quite like the idea of a 40-50 year extension myself.

If Boris breaks the law and does not ask for an extension, who's going to arrest him?

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2019 23:48

.

Westminstenders: Supreme Democracy
Westminstenders: Supreme Democracy
Westminstenders: Supreme Democracy
thecatfromjapan · 16/09/2019 23:48

Yes. I think his flow chart is a bit optimistic. But I'm grabbing the ray of sunshine (whilst holding on to the umbrella).

cordeliajackson · 16/09/2019 23:52

If Boris breaks the law and does not ask for an extension, who's going to arrest him

No one.

Your country's people haven't thought about or been through this sort of thing before, clearly.

Presumably that's why you were chosen.

Good luck.

thecatfromjapan · 16/09/2019 23:52

Ballyhoo Then it goes into the slightly (!) chaotic situation BigChoc just tAlked about.

Lots of argument about caretaker governments, etc. That need to command a majority. All in s few days.

Worrying.

thecatfromjapan · 16/09/2019 23:53

😂

JeSuisPoulet · 16/09/2019 23:55

We've spoken at length about the precedents being set here with law breaking and constitutional crisis.

On the march everyone was talking about the BBC giving false figures of "tens of thousands" of marchers and how Sky was now more trustworthy. I noted along with other posters the BBC now admits there were "over 1 million" at the same march now Hmm.

yolofish · 16/09/2019 23:56

cordelia is a bit of a tit really - should have been on the aviary thread! (tickets at the door, I'm here all week etc etc)

Carol Malone on Sky Press Preview seriously pisses me off.