Westministenders: Parliament Perogies pushing Rats in the Corner

[RedToothBrush]

One Opposition MP has just talked in parliament about how little the public understand what Preroguation is and what it meant. She described how one constituent thought it was about perogies.

The Benn Bill is now law and compels Johnson to ask for an extension if we have no deal.

Something that he has said he will die in a ditch to avoid and has suggested he would break the law.

But his options are hugely limited - if he refuses to do so and we no deal accidentally now, he is potentially personally liable for loses. He has no majority and the defeats keep on coming as a result.

Everything coming out now is the behaviour of a man with his back to the wall. The only thing he can do is frame everything as a people v the establishment and hope he survived until a GE. This is a dangerous time - he is now a rat in the corner with nothing to lose.

After Rudd's resignation, not much has got better for Johnson. Several other Tory MPs have signalled they won't stand again. This might mean they decide to rebel as they have nothing to lose. Lord Wellington, who has Tory written through him like a stick of rock, has also resigned the party. Attorney General Buckland hasn't resigned but has made threatening noises if the rule of law is broken.

Proroguation now does stack pressure on Johnson. He has to be the one to make moves and that is going to be difficult for him. However it also gives him time to say and do something without the scrutiny of parliament who have been blowing his arguments and legal assertions to bits with such ease.

Today he has visited Dublin where he stood next to Leo Varadkar who was less than polite nor even particularly diplomatic. The discomfort on Johnson's face and in his body language was very obvious. Varadkar in no uncertain terms said: ""if there is no deal, it will cause disruption for British and Irish people alike", adding "there's no such thing as a clean break, or just getting it done" and that he'd recieved no workable plan.

Tonight are two emergency debates. The first has just concluded about the government's lack of willingness to release documents relating to proroguation and operation yellowhammer.

Its been reported that ministers and civil servants have used private communications to conduct government ministers and this has caused huge concerns and Grieve wants to compel the government to release them. The government have responded saying this is an invasion of privacy. This has raised the accusation that Dominic Cummings personally has rifled through the phone messages of the former treasury communications officer as he sacked her and number 10 were not particularly concerned about her privacy then.

At the same time as the debate the government were briefing the press that they would refuse to comply with demands to release information. Grieve then made the point this was leading to the complete breakdown in trust in government.

David Allen Green said that if the government were to do this we could well be headed into a full blown constitutional crisis. This is the first time he's said he thinks we are actually at this stage.

Grieve was supported by the house by 311 votes to 302 votes ordering the government to release the documents.

The second debate is about the Rule of Law and the government's obligation to obey the Rule of Law.

Yet to come tonight is another vote about an early General Election before parliament pergoies, possibly in the early hours.

In other news John Bercow has decided to stand down at the next election or on the 31st October, which ever is sooner. There are rumours he was about to be deselected by his local conservative association and against convention would have to fight an election to win back his seat. He therefore was merely taking action before he was pushed. This might also be an action to protect parliament from the election of a new speaker after another election, fearing that there might be a hard right takeover which could threaten parliamentary soverignity.

Also this:
Declan Lawn @DecLawn
ERG stalwart Andrew Bridgen on @BBCPM saying the only way he could see a NI only backstop being acceptable is if it was put to an NI-only referendum. Fascinating.

As I keep saying, my mental health improved enormously once I realised how little influence over events I had. Up until then, I was genuinely making myself ill trying to do something, anything, to avert a catastrophe.

It is truly extraordinary to realise you are caught in a political tsunami, with extraordinary forces determining events. It's dire, really. What AJP Taylor said about train timetables and the 1WW suddenly becomes real. Along with the bleak tales friends told me of the run-up to Yugoslavia - their sense of drowning, their lack of hope.

Deliberately trying to demotivate voters is also a fascist tactic.

I take the view of doing what little you can, and to keep on making the same points over and over regardless. For your own sanity and sense of knowing you didn't give up.

But also realising your limitations and indeed the other side of your sense of sanity too.

Perhaps that's wrong because fantatics don't have any self restraint.

I tend to believe that most people are good and decent and are trying to do what they view as best, and for this reason even if you disagree with them you treat them with respect and don't think you are morally superior.

I think I this is where the left and liberals have strayed hugely, and a big dose of reminding everyone of that is healthy.

Otherwise they will be reminded in a much harsher way by those who don't have honest and unmalicious intent.

Just being a decent normal person I think is sometimes undervalued and politicians are under the impression that it doesn't resonant with voters.

I beg to differ. I just don't think we've seen anyone come through of that ilk.

Agree Lib Dem’s are fighting the wrong fight.

I don't think we fully know what is going on behind the scenes. We each have to fight from our own corner, with the weapons/ ammunition we have.

I get the impression that all the parties which voted down/abstained from voting for a GE at Johnson's behest, expect it to be inevitable soon, but they want it to be at a time of their own choosing, and not Johnson's. I would say that's the same fight. With the party conference season coming up now, some of the parties will get a further mandate from their members.

Farage is a funny one. Marmite character. Think that’s why he does leave a lot the TV work to the ladies of BXP these days. He has a demographic to which he appeals.

Think he does encourage votes against him too. Like me and I can’t be the only one.

In the unlikely event that the Rebel Alliance can agree a replacement PM after calling a VoNC,
the Tories might even welcome this and Corbyn / Clarke asking for an extension:

That extension "stopping the will of the people" might be their best chance of a whoppng majority, instead of another hung Parliament

Maybe just as good for them as actually delivering No Deal on 31 October with BJ facing jail

@red would the courts really dare jail a PM heading a fanatical populist movement, likely to win the next GE and repeal that bill anyway ?
Especially when we would have No Deal a few days later, so an extension would then be irrelevant

The courts might reserve / delay the penalty until after the GE

I am not sure if the PM by 19 October will effectively be subject to the law, at least for those last 2 weeks

Also, can the executive abolish courts and replace judges btw, using CCA to avoid Parliament ?
Or even just order that PM stay free, because he is "essential" to deal with the emergency ?

The WA isn’t going to save us now. It will be fuel for the BRINO argument and further fire up the far right.

I’m beginning to believe this is Cummings end game. Just maximum chaos. No actual goal. Johnson who thinks of himself as clever as is to a point, perhaps blinded by his egotistical desire to be PM.

I don’t think there’s any way out. We’ll return a Tory/BXP Parliament, life will get really, really hard, and eventually the left will make a come back but not for years. My generation hasn’t seen any sort of crisis. This is our crisis.

Oh, I refuse to be demotivated. I'm off out now to prepare for a GE.

It's not my preference but, as I said, I'll do my very best with what I have. 🤷‍♀️

I really don't think we can say that we will return a Tory/BXP party. I thought last time that a Labour annihilation was on the cards, but then I began to realise that Corbyn was doing OK at the hustings.

The only things I would be confident about are that most people still value the NHS, and that most people are heartily sick of Brexit, and want other issues to be attended to.

The WA may indeed not save us from a hard right & far right win at the GE
.... but it is our best chance

The alternatives have a much worse chance

imo, Revoke / PV is now only a useful unicorn that distracts & divides the centre & left, so helps the hard right

Read some history

It's not my preference but, as I said, I'll do my very best with what I have.

My approach too. I am busy until the end of September and then it's going to be all out preparing for an election for me.

I am loving Phil Hogan as the EUs new Trade Commissioner. I know it has been rumored for ages but the UK having to negotiate their FTA with the EU with an Irishman says exactly where the EU stands.

Passing the WA and actually leaving then defuses it for the 50% or so of Leavers
who either originally wanted a soft Brexit, or who would settle for whatever can be negotiated in transition.

The fanatical No Dealers are a minority,
but continually - as they see it - refusing to accept the ref result - infuriates nearly ALL Leavers
and many will be angry enough to vote accordingly

In a GE - especially under FPTP where small swings can be significant, that really matters:
A GE after Brexit would heal the Labour Leave / Remain split and would reduce the appeal of Farage in some areas

• that could be after No Deal, or after the WA

I certainly don't think Johnson can take the credit for the Leave vote. Yes, to the NHS pledges which did swing it, but Farage for the anti-immigrant vote, and Cameron for those who just wanted to see him given a kick in the teeth.

LEAVE.EU I do think was sometimes a problem for the whole leave campaign. It went too far and risked alienating some of the more moderate types who perhaps swung things. If you were a Farage supporter you were pretty entrenched already.

Vote Leave on the other hand were the architects of 'Turkey will join the EU' , That Bloody Bus, and 'Take Back Control'.

It was vote leave slogans that were repeated like mantras. Not anything that Farage come up with.

The things that resonated were the things that Cummings picked up on as social fracture points.

Johnson's 'acceptable respectability' and his ability to whip up a nationalistic fever was at least equal to Farage. He also had bumbling eccentricity and a lack of high profile Cabinet post which put him outside 'the establishment'.

Whilst Arron Banks and Farage certainly hit some of the right notes, I do think Vote Leave as the more mainstream campaign was ultimately the more important. It echoed Leave.eu in many respects but how it refined the message, and amplified it through its thought ending clichés was the key.

Johnson certainly gave the Leave Campaign an acceptable face to any undecideds.who
Tis easy to forget how popular he was back then.

Oh, I refuse to be demotivated. I'm off out now to prepare for a GE.

Cat

'Turkey will join the EU'

Now I had put that down to Farage, and I don't suppose I was the only one.

I'm not sure that there's a simple dividing line between good and decent people and bad ones. My experience is that good people (good both in their own eyes and in the eyes of those around them) are frequently capable of absolutely shocking callousness towards the suffering of anyone they see as "other". Well, that Brazilian electrician shouldn't have been is this country anyway and then he wouldn't be dead. They wouldn't have famines in those countries if they didn't breed so much. Why can't their women just keep their knees together? Why should I care that about that child drowning? We don't want them in our country. Well, it's all very sad but that child wouldn't have been murdered if she'd obeyed her mother and not wandered off. That young woman shouldn't have been walking home by herself and then she wouldn't have been raped, would she? Well, if they don't want to get raped then they should just avoid going to prison. I don't give a fuck if they're being tortured in their own country - this country is full. Well, I still don't believe that the Liverpool fans were angels so it's just the police at Hillsborough that I feel sorry for.

I'm not referring to any particular group here - I've heard comments like these from normal people at all levels of society. It's just a very fine line that we have to walk. I agree that we can't just dismiss a huge chunk of society as "bad", but if we normally callousness and hatred, we lose part of ourselves.

@kingsassassinI wonder if Arlene will be discussing this story when she meets BJ 🤔

steve hawkes@PerkingFaintly

‘I don’t care if Northern Ireland falls into the f@@king sea’.”

#gulp‬ ‪#making‬ ‪#waves‬ ‪#confidenceinshortsupply‬

Months ago, I started prioritising avoiding a fascist takeover, instead of pushing for Remain

Another one putting my hand up to this. Years, not months, for me though.

I've long been concerned with the left-behinds, out of straightforward humanity – with a smattering of self-interest given I'm disabled. I've also been saying for some time that parts of the population are ripe for the picking by whoever marches in with shiny banners and empty promises of better things. It's simply been a case of waiting to see which banner-bearer got there first.

Now I have the banner-bearer in sight, too.

Sigh.

Well.

Here we are.

I suppose I'll just crack on. Hard to know exactly when the UK is past the point of no return though...

When the (unelected) PM ignores the law as laid down by the HofC?

When people start dying due to lack of meds?

Food rationing?

When the free press is banned?

Cufrews...the CCA?

How long until I give up on my country?

smile Then I recommend you go there before EOY - preferably before 31 October, so you can register
That would then give you the right to stay

Unelss of course you can find a job there

would the courts really dare jail

courts apply the law without fear or favour

anything else, and it's basically legalised thuggery vs. anarchy.

But then again, uniformed bully boys in court was a Nazi tactic.

I am mildly upset that we haven't yet got a Brexiteer uniform. In fact the lack of such is worthy of some casual analysis. Or did the blackshirts queer that pitch back in the 30s ?

@red would the courts really dare jail a PM heading a fanatical populist movement, likely to win the next GE and repeal that bill anyway ?

The courts have a limitation of power.

They are there to enforce the law, thus if someone has broken the law, then if the rule of law still has integrity they have to impose the relevant sentence. Otherwise they cease in their purpose to uphold the law.

The trouble is that enforcing the law in that situation, the politics of the time mean it risks a public backlash and the martyring of such a leader which could endanger the rule of law as a result anyway.

The issue you are asking, is more one about the decisions the Crown Prosecution Service has to make about whether its in the public interest to persue a case in a situation like this. I suspect that would also involve the input of the security services (which then politicises them) and other political players.

In other words this can not ever be outside politics if we were to get into that situation. We'd be in a pure politics phase and the rule of law in the hands of that rather than under the courts.

And that's how the rule of law is undermined in a democracy and destroyed because you have this clash of public power (usually supported by the media in some way), political power and the power of the courts.

And that's precisely why anyone who wanted to rip up the institutions of the three pillars of democracy in this country - the media, the courts and Parliament would seek to deliberately break the law, because it provokes a crisis and chaos into which someone can take over without scrunity and accountability.

I don't know if that's Cummings personal goal. My suspicion is he merely wants reform of those institutions, but what he unleashes in the process is one unholy set of chain of events and exposure of the state to the forces and powers that should always be held to account.

Ironically I think we already passed this point some time ago, because no one was ever held to account over the referendum in political terms and systematic issues with electoral law, which we there before the ref and have persisted since.

The buck was stopping this was the closeness of the vote and the fact the vote was advisory.

The point to do something was then. It ended when A50 was triggered. And these were May's fatal mistakes because she put party tribalism ahead of everything else.

But meh.

What do I know?

Im just a SAHM who really should get on with washing my dishes and pulling up my weeds this afternoon.