Westministenders: Parliament Perogies pushing Rats in the Corner

[RedToothBrush]

One Opposition MP has just talked in parliament about how little the public understand what Preroguation is and what it meant. She described how one constituent thought it was about perogies.

The Benn Bill is now law and compels Johnson to ask for an extension if we have no deal.

Something that he has said he will die in a ditch to avoid and has suggested he would break the law.

But his options are hugely limited - if he refuses to do so and we no deal accidentally now, he is potentially personally liable for loses. He has no majority and the defeats keep on coming as a result.

Everything coming out now is the behaviour of a man with his back to the wall. The only thing he can do is frame everything as a people v the establishment and hope he survived until a GE. This is a dangerous time - he is now a rat in the corner with nothing to lose.

After Rudd's resignation, not much has got better for Johnson. Several other Tory MPs have signalled they won't stand again. This might mean they decide to rebel as they have nothing to lose. Lord Wellington, who has Tory written through him like a stick of rock, has also resigned the party. Attorney General Buckland hasn't resigned but has made threatening noises if the rule of law is broken.

Proroguation now does stack pressure on Johnson. He has to be the one to make moves and that is going to be difficult for him. However it also gives him time to say and do something without the scrutiny of parliament who have been blowing his arguments and legal assertions to bits with such ease.

Today he has visited Dublin where he stood next to Leo Varadkar who was less than polite nor even particularly diplomatic. The discomfort on Johnson's face and in his body language was very obvious. Varadkar in no uncertain terms said: ""if there is no deal, it will cause disruption for British and Irish people alike", adding "there's no such thing as a clean break, or just getting it done" and that he'd recieved no workable plan.

Tonight are two emergency debates. The first has just concluded about the government's lack of willingness to release documents relating to proroguation and operation yellowhammer.

Its been reported that ministers and civil servants have used private communications to conduct government ministers and this has caused huge concerns and Grieve wants to compel the government to release them. The government have responded saying this is an invasion of privacy. This has raised the accusation that Dominic Cummings personally has rifled through the phone messages of the former treasury communications officer as he sacked her and number 10 were not particularly concerned about her privacy then.

At the same time as the debate the government were briefing the press that they would refuse to comply with demands to release information. Grieve then made the point this was leading to the complete breakdown in trust in government.

David Allen Green said that if the government were to do this we could well be headed into a full blown constitutional crisis. This is the first time he's said he thinks we are actually at this stage.

Grieve was supported by the house by 311 votes to 302 votes ordering the government to release the documents.

The second debate is about the Rule of Law and the government's obligation to obey the Rule of Law.

Yet to come tonight is another vote about an early General Election before parliament pergoies, possibly in the early hours.

In other news John Bercow has decided to stand down at the next election or on the 31st October, which ever is sooner. There are rumours he was about to be deselected by his local conservative association and against convention would have to fight an election to win back his seat. He therefore was merely taking action before he was pushed. This might also be an action to protect parliament from the election of a new speaker after another election, fearing that there might be a hard right takeover which could threaten parliamentary soverignity.

Also this:
Declan Lawn @DecLawn
ERG stalwart Andrew Bridgen on @BBCPM saying the only way he could see a NI only backstop being acceptable is if it was put to an NI-only referendum. Fascinating.

No, say it, please.

De-lurking to make a point about medications that I haven's seen made on these threads yet (apologies if it's already been said).

Does anyone else think the timing and content of Public Health England's report on prescribing, which is today's 'other' main news, is absolutely no co-incidence?

Here in Scotland, prescribing stats are published annually. There are always certain factions who are ready to jump on these, particularly ones for medicines prescribed for mental health conditions, and claim they are being over prescribed, people are hooked, being handed out like sweeties, there's an 'epidemic' (!) of anti depressant overuse etc etc. This is usually dismissed as a non story because there have been robust reviews showing that by and large prescribing in Scotland is appropriate and in accordance with clinical guidelines, and, anyway, if people need medicines why in hell would you not give them the medicines, rather than stigmatising them for it.

Now, just as a potential medicine shortage is about to hit, there is a front page story with a public body in England coming out with all the crap that about over prescribing that is usually trotted out by ill-informed agitators. Hmm, all nicely lined up to dismiss swathes of people who start complaining about not being able to get their medicines as a bunch of addicted whingers who don't need to be taking them anyway?

My son's two medicines are on the list. I've put in an early repeat prescription request. Not having them would not actively kill him, but I do not wish to return to how things were before he started taking them. I'm very worried.

CatfromJapan If the Rebel Alliance agree on a replacement PM, then a VoNC indeed replaces BJ

Whether the PM is BJ / Clarke / Corbyn, a GE this year - probably mid-November - looks inevitable

The Rebel Alliance would struggle to last 2 weeks - they have different red lines on what happens next

When MPs return on 14 October, they need to vote for the WA

The only alternative to the WA is Corbyn winning a GE - when the LDems are standing against Labour MPs -
and then Remain winning a PV

This from yesterday has been very much missed but its important

Copied direct from Hansard, A Point of Order

Chuka Umunna (Streatham) (LD)
On a point of order, Mr Speaker. I was wondering whether you might be able to assist. Under the civil service code of conduct for Government special advisers who are Government employees paid for by the taxpayer, a special adviser may not undertake work for a political party during office hours. They should also not use official resources for party political activity. Based on widespread reports, it appears that the Prime Minister’s chief special adviser, Mr Dominic Cummings, almost certainly has undertaken work for the Conservative party while carrying out his duties. With that in mind, I submitted a freedom of information request—[Interruption.]

Mr Speaker
Order. It is a perfectly reasonable inquiry. Whether it is something upon which I can adjudicate remains to be seen, but I will only know that if I hear it, and the hyena noises render it rather more difficult for it to be heard. The hon. Gentleman will persist, I hope, with his point of order.

Chuka Umunna
With that in mind, I submitted a freedom of information request to the Cabinet Secretary on 13 August asking for details of Government special advisers and, in particular, who they were employed by and whether they were paid out of the public purse. In the case of Mr Cummings, I asked whether, if he is not paid by public funds, he has security access to Downing Street and is treated in the same way as a special adviser paid out of public funds.

Mr Speaker, this is an incredibly important matter of public interest, particularly given that we are about to prorogue and potentially thereafter enter an election period. The Cabinet Office, when we had points of order earlier, replied saying that it would not provide a response to my freedom of information request, which is due tomorrow, until December. That is clearly unsatisfactory. I tried to raise it earlier with the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, but he refused to take any interventions. Given that we are about to prorogue for five weeks, what would you advise we do to ensure that public funds are not being misspent and used for Conservative party purposes in this way?

Mr Speaker
I am sorry, but I have to resort to my usual advice to quizzical Members in these circumstances: persist, persist, persist. Write, seek a meeting, and press again and again and again in pursuit of a response to an entirely legitimate question. Do not take no for an answer.

It is a very long time since I was a special adviser. In those days the rules were extremely strict, and what the hon. Gentleman says resonates with me entirely. I have no reason to suppose the rules have changed. I cannot possibly say what is or is not done by way of conduct on the part of particular individuals now, but that it is a legitimate matter of public interest, rather than something simply to be treated as the subject of cheap badinage and ribaldry, is entirely obvious to me. The hon. Gentleman has a fair inquiry. He should pursue it and not put up with those who sneer and smirk, and think it is all a sort of jolly wheeze and a game, and that it does not matter a damn. It does matter a damn, and I hope the hon. Gentleman will pursue it. I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman, and I hope he is suitable emboldened and fortified in pursuit of his efforts.

Journalists worth their salt should be all over this like a rash.

The Rebel Alliance would struggle to last 2 weeks - they have different red lines on what happens next

Which is why they need to reign in any ambition and avoid the Leave beartrap of being waffley vague.

There should be a crystal clear goal, a defined "this is what success looks like" and it needs to be public and transparent.

Agree, BigChoc.

That GE is where we're heading, though. 🤷‍♀️

(And I know that makes you want to scream. For myself it a. Makes me wish I was in a position to leave the UK. B. Reign myself to the fact I can't and therefore do what I can to avoid a Conservative win. It's all very worrying.)

💐 @ Red for finding and posting that.

Hope journalists do pick that up Red.

Passing the WA reduces the chance of the Tories / BXP winning the GE

It is our best chance of lancing the boil and returning to more normal politics
Nothing else does that, not Remain, not extending for 2 years

BJ then cannot stand on the basis of "Leave" because we will already have left
and also, he will look weak

The number of voters who want No Deal is much lower than the numbers who just want Leave

What has enabled the hard right to take over ?
imo, the political vaccum on resolving Brexit

A long extension could let the far right complete the takeover of the hard right

(Yes, I know the WA is only the start; probably 90% of voters don't)

Months ago, I started prioritising avoiding a fascist takeover, instead of pushing for Remain

MuseumOfHam - exactly - we had HRT shortages, followed by "HRT is bad for you" reporting in the media; now we're having "painkillers are bad for you" following medication shortages (either happening or about to happen).

I take pregabalin for fibromyalgia, and while not having it won't kill me, I doubt I'll be able to work. Pregabalin is now a Class C drug, which means you can only get a month at a time, and can't reorder early (although the lovely prescriptions clerk has set my repeat to 25 days). I'm now stockpiling paracetamol which will at least take the edge off, but won't really make a massive difference .

There are so many of us out there being able to contribute to the economy/society because our pain/medical conditions are being controlled by vital medication, and us not being able to do that will have massive knock-on effects.

We are long past the stage of a magic bullet to beat the fascists

Now we are just looking at the best hope of stopping them

Maybe a forlorn hope, but the other options have far less chance of working

Well he can try @DGRossetti but it’s not going to wash with anyone with half a functional brain

About that....

You seem to have missed the purpose of these threads during the last 3 years.

We are no longer in the realms of what is sensible nor rational. We are in the realms of belief, hope and fevant cult followings.

The number of functioning brain cells you have is highly irrelevant. It is merely a question of what you choose to believe, even if its blindingly obvious its a crock of shit. Indeed, the view is often thats its merely a choice of which crock of shit you prefer to swallow, thats the entire problem.

I do wish that people didn't refer to intelligence as that doesn't matter. Smart, educated people are also being swept away with whatever shite it happens to be today, and its not just something happening on the right I might add. Its more that they live this idea of a cultural identity which gives them a certain place in society, and a general laziness to employ the critical thinking which they are capable of.

The thing is ultimately that people have a habit of seeking out a simple solution to a difficult problem. And these are as rare as pandas and going more endangered by the second by each additional cock up.

The whole, '#makeitstop' from the LDs is actually another example of this too. The opposition to the EU and the underlying issues driving that feeling are certainly not going away. They need to do better than that, especially when Johnson is well ahead on that, understanding the metropolitian v towns thing. The LDs are in no way equipped to deal with that, and until they think about how they address their middle class image (hello what do you think the remainers = rich londoners shit is about? Its not just about london v north its also about class fractures in society and exploiting those stereotypes) they are going to have a certain ceiling to their support.

Labour and the LDs have got stuck in their own echo chambers and very much preaching to the choir.

Whatever you might think about Cummings and Johnson, you have to have a begrudging respect for them courting an audience that the Tories haven't in recent years - and thats what got additional voters at the ref - because there was a group of people who thought at last, after many years, someone was listening to their concerns for once. The rights and wrongs of how they are doing it, and whether there is any intension of answering those concerns put forward by people who feel they have been disenfranchised and ignored for a long time are another matter.

The LDs and Labours failure to connect (or even try to connect) with those who don't share their world view and the way they have dismissed certain concerns is very much part of the problem. And here too we see fanaticsm rather than engagment of brain cells.

Warnings are not being taken seriously about where we have been headed for a while. I have no reason to believe any differently from the performance of the last week unfortunately.

James Forsyth@JGForsyth

At Cabinet this morning, Boris Johnson told ministers that the next 5 weeks would see the government focus on the NHS, violent crime and the cost of living.
In other words, an attempt get back to the campaigns that worked for them so well in August when parliament was not sitting

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

Hmm.
The problem for Number 10 wasn’t that they got off message.

Their problem came when (rightly) another institution was around which could project another message.

It really isn’t hard for the executive to dominate when it literally prevents the legislature from sitting

They should also not use official resources for party political activity. Based on widespread reports, it appears that the Prime Minister’s chief special adviser, Mr Dominic Cummings, almost certainly has undertaken work for the Conservative party while carrying out his duties.

And ( despite rumours of an op) is this the real reason why DCs employment only lasts to 31 October. Special Adviser until Halloween- Tory campaign mastermind thereafter?

How are election campaign funds looking to fund this anyway. The press said Conservative donors refused to increase funding under Mrs May. Is money now flooding in to Mr Johnson?

I saw that Point of Order yesterday, Red. If only there were journalists prepared to follow up.

I also heard a suggestion yesterday to sell to unionists - no border poll while the backstop is in operation, i.e. if NI is not in regulatory alignment with rUK but is with Ireland, there can't be a border poll, if NI is in alignment with rUK, there can be a border poll. I don't know how it would go down with nationalists though and I have a panicky feeling about any kind of change to anything in NI, and I feel very shaky about giving up the right to a poll.

I can't think of what else I was going to say. Oh yes - can't the opposition hammer out a Good Friday like agreement - i.e. there will at some vague, future, indefinite date be a referendum to rejoin the EU if it becomes clear that a majority of the public would vote for that. There must be some kind of fudge.

Months ago, I started prioritising avoiding a fascist takeover, instead of pushing for Remain

This^

This machine kills fascists

Whatever you might think about Cummings and Johnson, you have to have a begrudging respect for them courting an audience that the Tories haven't in recent years - and thats what got additional voters at the ref - because there was a group of people who thought at last, after many years, someone was listening to their concerns for once.

No, I think you will find that it's Farage who got a large tranche of voters out. Johnson will have got those out who want to protect the NHS, a message now, with all the reports of medicine shortages, won't resonate as well.

Yep, red LDems haven't got it - don't understand the dangers - and probably never will under Swinson
In a bubble, remote from what concerns much of the country and utterly irrelevant to most

Well, at least at the next GE the SNP may take care of that problem before the following Parliament

• although she is stupid & arrogant enough to try leading after having lost her seat

Labour's chances look grim atm, as they are torn between 2 groups of Labour voters

BUT
Any GE now looks like it will be after No Deal, which could mean the 2 groups have nothing more to fight over
.... unless of course the fucking idiots deselect MPs who they think aren't nice to Corbyn

This really is like a rerun of Germany in the 1930s, with the Nazis never winning a majority,
but the Opposition being fractured and refusing to compromise together, so losing everything in the end

I'm not arguing about the fascist take-over. I just genuinely think we are going to end up with a GE. And, yes, I am worried about that. 🤷‍♀️

As I keep saying, my mental health improved enormously once I realised how little influence over events I had. Up until then, I was genuinely making myself ill trying to do something, anything, to avert a catastrophe.

It is truly extraordinary to realise you are caught in a political tsunami, with extraordinary forces determining events. It's dire, really. What AJP Taylor said about train timetables and the 1WW suddenly becomes real. Along with the bleak tales friends told me of the run-up to Yugoslavia - their sense of drowning, their lack of hope.

It's truly despair-ful. But I'll keep struggling on, with whatever stuck falls into my hand. 🤷‍♀️ I'd hate to have to tell my grandchildren I just sat by and watched it all.

And, you know, there's the difference between strategy and tactics.

I take great Hope from Milton's Satan: his strategy fell apart but he did rather well from his abilities as a tactician.

Fighting well with what you have , rather than what you ought to have, is a winning skill.

Agree Lib Dem’s are fighting the wrong fight.

No, I think you will find that it's Farage who got a large tranche of voters out.

Did he ? Or did he simply get people to switch the vote they were going to make anyway ?

One of the more surreal parts of the past 2 years has been Theresa May insisting she had to bow to what non voters wanted.

I certainly don't think Johnson can take the credit for the Leave vote. Yes, to the NHS pledges which did swing it, but Farage for the anti-immigrant vote, and Cameron for those who just wanted to see him given a kick in the teeth.