Westministenders: Is Boris going to give us one ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

A General Election that is

Well, only when Corbyn lets him, not when BJ wants it.
So far as PM, BJ has lost 4 votes to zero wins - which is a record

BJ has been spraying around promises of billions in spending,
like a tomcat drunk on catnip, spraying the Magic Money Tree

SPADs have been forbidden to take holiday before 31 October
and of course that coup / prorogue to force No Deal and wank off the authoritarian vote

The prorogue also robs him of 5 more weeks time in which he could have forced a GE.
Whoops

BJ / Cum would ideally want a GE right after Brexit
to have achieved their No Deal, maximise their votes from the Faragist
.... all before the No Deal chickens come home to roost

Of course, as PM, BJ - or is Cummings the real PM ? - could change any pre-Brexit date that the naive think they have agreed

The Rebel Alliance have options to stop him:

BJ has sacked 21 MPs, so if the Alliance unite, they outnumber Con+DUP
Another Whoops
However, they have different aims and find it difficult to compromise
Some might prefer No Deal rather than the bogeyman Corbyn, because they don't do compromise

They could use a VoNC to replace BJ by Corbyn,
who would then ask for an extension and call a GE before Brexit
Stopping No Deal that way depends on Corbyn winning the GE - a HUGE gamble

Maybe he can use the slogan
"Brexit is the Tory project to make you forget the other Tory project: Austerity"

while to appeal to some pp, the Tories can use
"Vote to protect the bonuses of rich bankers"

Or if nothing happens by 19 October, MPs can vote for the WA, which would definitely stop No Deal
But that would require the HoC to make a decision - and it has spent several months avoiding that

Tick tock, No Deal is coming

Meanwhile, talks are ongoing for a Tory-Brexit party pact.
Reportedly, the hedge-fund donors won't fund a Tory GE campaign unless there is a pact:

www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/revealed-election-pact-between-johnson-and-farage-edges-closer/

How much money does it take to buy the UK governing party ? 🤔

I really do think that the best way to chop the legs off the Tories / BXP is to vote for the WA. We've left then. Brexit is done. They can't keep fighting on the 'they're trying to stop Brexit' platform. It takes a huge amount of wind from their sales.

Some of us need to be the pragmatic grown ups and just get over that hurdle before planning the future of the U.K. Parties can stand on a 'let's get back into the EU' platform if they like, once that's done.

Sign the WA, give BoJo his election, stand on a future relationship platform. Then we can see what the public wants for the future.

The uncertainty and moving cliff top need to be brought to an end for the economics of the country and the mental health of its citizens, whether they're here or in the EU.

@mummmy2017 WA would have done it. It was the "moon on a stick" Quitlings that stopped it.

How would Tory snobs like JRM feel about sitting next to BXP on the benches though? He will be kept in the dark on those matters I suspect.

Tory party looks like it will be taken over by second hand car salesmen and club owners before the end of October, which I don't think will sit well with many ERG.

Remember BJ wanted to be "King of the world" not an elected leader...he won't care what he 'stands for' as long as he remains "King". The fact he can be humble and self-depreciating at times with bluster only makes this more sinister.

I think The Saj has just given away the 'cunning plan' on Marr. Off to look at the Benn legislation to see if I'm right...

Javid and Marr going round and round in circles

Will you obey the law?
Yes we will
So you’ll ask for an extension?
No we won’t
So you won’t obey the law?
Yes we will...

And repeat and repeat and repeat....

Through the looking glass...

Anyone seen the Sun article about BJ? (Sorry can’t link on phone)
BORIS JOHNSON PLOTS TO PARALYSE EU DECISION-MAKING IN BID TO BREAK BREXIT DEADLOCK

But I thought we had no power.

No sovereignty were at the mercy of the EU.

Yet at the same time we can paralyse them.

Which is it then ?

I fear some have not caught up to the political realignment and the rightwing takeover of the Tory Party

.... or am I being too pessimistic

Nope.

The parrallels with the past are concerning. A lot have been mentioned as possibilities on here. Some have played out straight as predicted. Some have played out in a similar fashion but not quite as we've forseen. But on the whole in keeping with the authoritarian play book of history.

It's funny how we've seen the issues of Banks and Cummings as side issues but directly related to Brexit and here we are all things coming back together.

My suspicion about Johnson is that as a narcissist surrounded by yes men who has never really done any hard work and thinks he's cleverer than all that because he can get through by force of personality we've got a problem.

He now knows he's out of his depth and is trying to hide it by using people who have blown smoke up his arse. The trouble is they long saw through him as a tool and are now seeking to exploit him. He's panicked and I do suspect that he thinks he's liberal and the departure of his brother and Rudd will only panic him more and make him feel he has to lean on Cummings more as he doesn't know what else to do or how to reverse.

If he truly is their patsy and doesn't realise it - which I think possible - then they might not care if he breaks the law as he's their fall guy. If it succeeds they can change the law retrospectively to protect themselves. If it fails then Johnson is in the firing line and chances are they'll walk away (again) scot free.

It's interesting how many of this situations are playing out to be win win for them as they don't have to adhere to the rules whilst the opposition are constrained by them and when they try to bend them it only justifies rule breaking for the authoritirians.

I think we are in deep deep trouble. The HoC is at least 6 to 9 months behind us. They have been remarkably slow in spotting problems never mind responding to them.

That's what scares me most.

What I'm seeing playing out now, if they aren't on top of it, I do fully expect to see Deputy PM Farage with the inept Johnson 'in charge'. Cummings will be long gone as he can't stand Farage, but it also means he has achieved his goals and won't have any of the responsibilities of it either.

All this hysterical fear about Corbyn... I don't get.
Usually I'd say this is b/c I don't read the tabloids and their messaging.

But this time I wondered about social media messaging -- what swung the 2016 vote. If targeted people have been fed a steady diet of Project Corbyn Fear via their social media & channels folk like me never tap into.

Form David Lammy, though I guess he got these from somewhere else.

*Javid and Marr going round and round in circles

Will you obey the law?
Yes we will
So you’ll ask for an extension?
No we won’t
So you won’t obey the law?
Yes we will...

And repeat and repeat and repeat....

Through the looking glass...*

Schrödinger's Johnson (ooo er missus). He will both obey the law and not obey.

There is a loophole in Benn is there not....?

Look at (4) - it doesn't state when BJ has to ask for an extension. What stops him asking for one at 10.50pm on 31/10?

He has complied with the law but it isn't enough time for the EU to agree an extension.

Thoughts?

So what happens tomorrow?

BORIS JOHNSON PLOTS TO PARALYSE EU DECISION-MAKING IN BID TO BREAK BREXIT DEADLOCK

Funny how Boris is all of a sudden expert enough to achieve this after decades of not paying the slightest bit of attention to how the EU works ? It's like someone is starting to believe their own propaganda.

It is an invitation to EU not to offer an extension. Which leaves revoke/WA as the only way out no-deal.

Confused. Watching Andrew Marr/Sajid Javid
Painful watching SJ.

We will go to meeting 17/18th October
We will try and strike deal
We wont ask for extension at that meeting
Following this we will consider options

AM: If 19th comes and no agreement will you obey the law?

SJ: We will obey ALL laws but you will have to see what happens, BJ wont be resigning. We will be going out on 31st.

AM Tell us your cunning plan? I don't believe you have one.

SJ basically says it's a secret

All I can think of is that BJ will wait till there is an injunction ordering him to obey the law, and then he will do what the law says, rather than commit a criminal offence? Or am I way off?

But then I'm not a real lawyer (emergency services family... hi Squid) so I'm relying on the good people here to explain.

Read 3 above it. He has to ask on 19th

Jim Pickard@pickardje
Sajid Javid, chancellor, rules out a deal with Farage:

"We don't need an electoral alliance with anyone. We can stand on our own two feet." #marr

In fairness Cummings hates Farage.

So this is likely to be true.

But

1. Farage still free to have an unofficial pact if it suits him.

2. How long is Cummings on the scene for

3. Do we believe Javid is in the decision making loop

4. Do we believe them anyway

See my post below....

The only thing that means they follow the law but don't ask for an extension is that they exploit a legal loophole.

Is it the one I've noted?

Duh! Sorry read (3) incorrectly.

Going back to the text to find another loophole...

Funny how Boris is all of a sudden expert enough to achieve this after decades of not paying the slightest bit of attention to how the EU works ? It's like someone is starting to believe their own propaganda.
I suspect he may have sucked up enough of his own bs that he may believe he knows but reality will hit him like a cold kipper round the face, pun completely intended

Jean Claude piris @ piris_jc
If U.K. still an EU member after 31 Oct, it will have the legal duty to nominate a candidate Commissioner. If it does not,the Commission can continue to work and decide legally (precedent Bangemann 1999). The U.K. will be brought to the EUCJ for violation of its obligation

1/ In other words, the fact that HMG would violate the EU Treaties by not nominating a candidate Commissioner would not make the U.K. a non member State.

2/ To know if UK would still be an EU State if the PM violated applicable domestic/constit laws by not asking a prorogation of article 50 delay would not be an issue of EU law and for the EU Court of Just but for British competent authorities including perhaps its Supreme Court

Why did Javid talk about 'knee-capping' twice in this mornings interview?

@flouncyfanny I have zero problem with Rupert Lowe doing what he wants with his own business.

I have zero faith that he had the best interests of the farming community at large.

He took on Southampton FC with little experience made bad decisions and very nearly destroyed the club he did what was best for him.

Paul Brand@paulbranditv
So takeaway from all that

•Rudd says govt isn’t seriously trying for a deal. Will harden Parliament’s resolve against an election which could risk No Deal.

•Javid says PM will obey the law, but also won’t ask EU for extension. What’s the loophole Downing St thinks it’s found?